Merlin's Magic: The Plan Edition

by Features

I have been giving this whole ‘The Plan’ concept some thought for a while now. Watching Pioli over the last few weeks, things are starting to come into focus. The recent draft clarified my thinking even more. Good analysis starts with examining bedrock philosophy and builds from there. I talked a bit about Pioli’s philosophy before, but let’s review.

First of all, disregard what Pioli said about wanting big, strong, fast, smart football players. That’s just cliche nonsense. Anyone want a small, weak, slow, dumb football player? Of course not. Is Zach Thomas big? Is Bobby Engram fast? So, what does Pioli really value? He appears to value smart players who are ‘gym rats’. That is players who are highly dedicated and are willing to put in lots of work to maximize their talent. Pioli will sacrifice some talent/athletic ability to take a lesser talent that fits the qualities outlined above. The thought is that these players will become better football players more often than not as compared to their less dedicated, more talented brethren.

So, what does someone do when entering a new situation? Your philosophy is not going to change, but you need to first evaluate what you have to work with and what problems you need to solve. Pioli has made it very clear that the biggest change he needed to make in the Chief’s culture was changing the mental approach to the game. The phrase he and Haley have used is ‘changing the mindset’. Specifically, I believe they are focused on the dedication and preparation for the game of football. Will Franklin was cut and made an example of, in part, to emphasize the dedication expected. At this level, most Chief fans, including myself, buy into what Pioli is doing. It is when you drill down to the next level is where concerns start to emerge.

The next level down concerns the systems used to play football. Last year, the Patriots and Cardinals ran similar offenses. With the trade for Matt Cassel, we can pretty much guess what our offense is going to look like. It’s not a huge difference from the offense Chan Gailey implemented on the fly last year. So, I do not have any major concerns about coming in and imposing ‘The Plan’ on the offense. It pretty much fits the players we have. LJ is the big concern there. As he was last year. However, the defense is another matter entirely.

The existing defensive talent on this team was drafted to play a 4-3 tampa two defense. Yes, there is a lot of good young talent on the defense. Do not get caught up record and defensive rating. So, does Pioli see what talent he can build around and see what system he needs to implement to maximize the talent and what players he needs to add or does he come in and impose ‘The Plan’ on defense? The draft and the rookie mini-camp confirmed that he chose the latter option. For all his talk in the Red Zone interview about how he need to be flexible, actions are telling a different story.

Fundamentally, I have a problem with anyone thinking they have ‘The Plan’. There are many plans that can work well in the NFL. There is no such thing as ‘The Plan’. Real genius is the ability to evaluate a situation and develop, not impose, but develop a plan that works for the current situation. The key to winning is not the system, but the execution of the system. The right players playing in the right system for them is what wins.

What Pioli appears to be doing is flushing some good young talent down the drain to implement ‘The Plan’. Can it work? Sure. Will it work? No one knows. It appears to be needlessly wasteful. Of the young talent on the team, only Tank Tyler is a natural fit for new system. Demorrio Williams may emerge here, but I am concerned about Turk McBride and Tamba Hali. I am very hopeful that Glenn Dorsey will find a good role here. He has a ton of talent.

Many fans will point to Pioli’s Super Bowl rings as evidence for the innate superiority of ‘The Plan’ or of the planners. Fair enough, but ask yourself how much success has Belichick had without Tom Brady? His career record without Brady starting for him is 52-62. That right, without Tom Brady starting, Belichick is ten games under the .500 mark and that includes an 11-5 season last year. To be fair, Belichick did win one playoff game without Tom Brady. How have the NFL coaches that spawned from Belichick’s tree done? Not any better. Crennel? 24-40 and no playoff appearances. Mangini? 23-25, lost his only playoff game. Al Groh? 9-7 (hey a winning record!), Nick Saban? 15-17. So, Belichick’s NFL coaching tree is a combined 71-89 with one playoff lose and zero playoff victories. Now we can add Josh McDaniels to that list. He is off to a great start. He already ran his franchise QB out of town and decided to address his horrible defense by spending his first draft pick on a running back. Is this evidence of the superiority of the planners?

So, what can we hope for? Well, we have to hope that we find an elite QB and surround him with very good talent. I hope Matt Cassel is that guy. Coaches and General Managers look a whole lot smarter with good talent playing for them.

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Last years D cost us more than half of our losses. Bringing in this new system might take time to adjust to, but it offers us the best chance at creating a solid, capable, defensive unit.

I'm not sold on our OL at all. I think they will be better for sure, but not as good as we could've been (mark Jason Brown here). We still need help on the line, and although Engram has hands of gold, and Bradley has shown moments where he CAN play, the passing game is hinging on Bowe right now.

I like having Haley here. I really think he can bring out the best in Bowe. Which would be incredible if he gets even better than he is now. But having another younger deep threat to pass to, should be on the agenda for this season. As well as finding a few more quality OL (if there're any even left).

Redbeard: I think RB is the least of an NFL team's worries. Very large talent pool of very good/serviceable players. An outSTANDING RB can do a lot to compensate for a below-average team, but most of the Heisman busts I've seen were the result of the worst teams getting the highest draft picks and using them for star-power rather than team-building.

I think LJ will be fine, with a smash-mouth o-line in front of him. He's not as versatile as some, but if the power running game is dominant, and there aren't 5 uncontested pass-rushers on every passing play, he'll probably be good enough in protection and as a receiver to get the job done.

I agree that Carl seemed to struggle with WR, but there were some pretty good after-market players, like Rison, Kennison, Alexander, and we can't forget Dwayne Bowe! The strike against him is dropped balls, but when I watch him, I don't see somebody whose fundamentals are bad. Just a little haphazard at securing the ball before turning upfield. He looks a lot like a young Derrick Alexander, only with better/stronger hands. With Haley at HC, I don't think he'll be turned into a robot in order to minimize drops. I think he'll build on the fundamentals he has.

Jenkins, Riley, Tate. Plenty of 1st-rounders on OL, but definitely an inability to see if the guys were PLAYERS or not. I think Tate's still in the league, and he wasn't a total bust - just a bust for the Chiefs.

We'll see what happens, but I think the Chiefs did a pretty good job bringing in young players the last few years, and the new regime has a better system for team-building. Looks like a tough schedule this year, but I think the Chiefs are going to surprise people. They were in a lot of games that they eventually lost last year, and are probably going to catch some people napping this year.

ok now wait a minute, we just had a five yar plan that lasted for ever, some of you never saw the chiefs play before that...lol

I liked the first five year plan of the chiefs...

marty ball will always win my praise...so what if CARL never brought in a good wideout.

an attacking deffence with a play action type O will always be the way to go IN KANSAS CITY

the younger fans seem top think we need superstar offencive guys across the board, you dont...

we do need a RB, of which LJ still isnt it...lol
he never will be anything more than a derrick thomas type player...he can only do one thing...and LJ isnt even good at that.

Johnny U: Cunningham would've immediately tried to convert Polamalu to LB and then used his LBs like safeties! I was DEEPLY disappointed with the LJ pick.

As for the RB in Denver, that's a tough call, because of the dependence of McBride's scheme on a pretty special RB. If RB is THE missing piece, then it may turn out to be a wise move. I just think he's gonna have a tough time finding parts for his Ferrari.

Hopefully we've seen our last 1st-rounder spent on a RB!

Actually we traded down ELEVEN spots in 03' from 16th to 27th. My bad.

Merlin,

When you reference Josh McDaniels and say, "He... decided to address his horrible defense by spending his first draft pick on a running back." I have to say it reminded me of the Chief's 03' draft.

Our defence sucked and instead of picking up Troy Polamalu ourselves in the 1st round we trade down NINE stinkin spots with the Steelers so they can grab him with OUR pick so we could draft our pain in the neck Running Back, LJ, with their pick. Six years later and I'm still scratching my head.

Man! Wouldn't Polamalu look good in red and gold...

Maine_Chief: My main gripe with your post is whether or not these highly drafted players "fit" the 3-4. I don't think there's any question. Seems to me Pioli went after the main guys Haley's gonna need to get the front 7 working properly.

If Hali doesn't end up fitting, it won't be the fault of the 3-4! Same for Dorsey. I see BOTH of them fitting better into the 3-4 than what we saw last season. Dorsey almost certainly, and if not Hali, then Hali's gonna struggle to fit into ANY D (We already tried him at 4-3 DE and 3-4 OLB (with pass-rushing DE role on passing downs, perhaps))... Really hoping to see him be an every-down player. Have to judge it as a 1st-round bust if he isn't in there on the majority of snaps (and he very well might NOT be).

Cool to hear that you think Edwards is more of a 3-4 player, along with DJ.

On the one hand, you say these guys failed in the 4-3 and then you say they'd stick with 4-3 for the sake of Hali? The move to 3-4 is a last chance for Hali to find a real home.

Yeah, Quazz. It was think about football or grade finals! Heh. So I'm up at 3 a.m. on Tuesday morning, trying to finish up with final grades before the 12 noon deadline. Pretty much done with the grading, except for that one guy with panic disorder, who takes his test in a padded cell with pretty rabbits dangling from a mobile overhead, with the soothing sounds of the seashore in the background... Now where did I put the damn thing?

Ha ha well said chieflonghair! Wow Mills, been thinking a lot about this have ya? =) You made some great arguments, and I'd have to agree about Monroe. I wanted him too. Also, I think another receiving threat has to be considered here. Plax would be good, tho he doesn't fit the profile of the Pioli player, and Quan is VERY expensive. I don't know how much we'd give up for him, unless the price dropped... But like you said, its up to the people who were hired for the job.

The Chiefs are doing the right thing, and that's moving away from the past as much as possible, on D AND Offense. In some cases it's had us scratching our heads, but, in the end it is the people hired for the job that make the decisions. And with whats been heralded as one of the leagues best GM's running the show, I'm ok with that. Hopefully we can make a few more solid pick ups before the season. Seriously, the AFC west is there for the taking. That is no reach.

I for one believe that "the plan" from Pioli will be a huge improvement from the King Carl plan of the past,,, I am really looking forward to the next decade of exciting Kansas City Chiefs Football!!!!! go CHIEFS!!!!!!!!!

In my estimation, the Chiefs are going to set the table pretty good for that kind of offense. The missing piece is a dominant player opposite Bowe. Depending on if the table truly IS set, given KC's cap room advantage, Boldin or Plax STILL might fall to the Chiefs.

Rosenhaus thinks that the issue with Boldin will be decided before training camp. I gather he thinks there's a trade coming. I personally don't quite see it, because I think Arizona wants too much for him. A trade IS possible, there. The Cards are stuck either paying him big bucks or trading him for less than they're asking, right now.

I think Haley is either great at developing WRs, great at evaluating them, or lucky at getting them. But I'm not holding my breath on the new WR talent!

"The existing defensive talent on this team was drafted to play a 4-3 tampa two defense. Yes, there is a lot of good young talent on the defense. Do not get caught up record and defensive rating."

That's funny. How does one not look at the record and defensive rating when evaluating a defense? As BigRedCadillac stated, last year's front 7 weren't just bad - they were record setting bad. "I have to turn the channel while we're on D" bad! They made Vermeil's defense look like the friggin' Steelers. C'mon. I know from talking to you that you still have a man crush on Hali, but he was was like a poor man's Vaughn Booker last year. Just horrid. Tank and Turk were better than in '07 yes - but only because in '07 they looked like beer league guys. Dorsey was solid but couldnt make up for the wreck around him. The LB's were just useless. I think it says something when your best performing linebacker is a mid-season pickup off the street.

Do some of these players have physical abilty? Sure. But so did Akili Smith, (both) Mike Williams, Ryan Sims (allegedly), Quentin Coryatt, etc. In the end physical ability will only take you so far and in the NFL, "elite athletes" get knocked on their elite ass pretty quick if they don't have what it takes mentally and emotionally. Leadership from vets and a good scheme can help a player, but in the end a guy can play in this league or he can't. And its not like Hali and crew were just losing or giving up some big plays. They were getting knocked on their ass repeatedly. There were huge holes for the RB to go through because their offensive lineman had blown our D-Line back. It was embarrassing.

So you are Pioli/Haley and take over this 2-14 team. Teams league wide are going to the 3-4. Your background is in a 3-4. Some of your players (DJ, R.Edwards) fit a 3-4 better, but a few highly drafted players may not fit. Do you force the team to continue to run a 4-3 for the sake of Hali, Turk and Tank? Or do you move forward? Go with the 3-4 system you know and draft for it and sign/trade for vets that fit it.

It's an easy call. And I for one am glad they have the sense to know that.

If we'd followed MY plan, we'd have taken Eugene Monroe. But maybe THE plan has a better model for line-building (on both O 'n' D) that's more practical. It certainly seems like Pioli and co. have more insight into working with what's already here than I do!

It's not like I'm not exactly AGAINST sacks from the d-line. Getting sacks from those guys IS a sign of dominant defense. Also, look at the number of stops for loss. To me, they're as good as sacks.

Shifting gears mercilessly, I think LJ fits just fine in the new style of offense. Think of Corey Dillon's late-career comeback. What's easy to miss is we think of the offense as being explosive (and it tries to be as explosive as is practical), but with Randy Moss in NE and Larry Fitzgerald, even Marty Schottenheimer would find himself compared to Don Coryell. But the fundamentals of the offense are power running and chain-moving passing. A lot of drive-blocking on passing plays, to get the most out of the play-fake (and your o-line that can, at least, push the other guys off the line at the snap).

When you get THAT far, your constant nagging after your receivers for not getting enough yac (like Haley did to Fitz) turns you into an offense that people mistake for the greatest show on 'turf.

BigRedCadillac is pretty much right.

The only thing we really have to worry about here is the size of the players on the D-line, and that's only considering 3-4 D-line specifications. We're not technically even playing a strict 3-4.

If the players are good, and the new system is good, the players will adapt and our defense will improve.

The shift in philosophy is more in keeping with the players the Chiefs have and the players that they can acquire in the future. Will some of our 'tweeners lose out? Probably. But at least we won't be trying to impose "The Plan" in a vacuum, hoping against hope that we can turn a 'tweener into the next Neil Smith.

Instead, they're nailing down the middle. How many DT's have they ditched since coming here? Nada. Instead of hoping that they can make a 'tweener hold down the end spots at a weight disadvantage (either playing on the light side, or playing heavier than their frames can really suppost), they're going with three actual widebodies in the middle, and NOW they're going to see whom among the 'tweeners we HAVE, can flourish behind an extra-stout front 3.

4-man rush. 7 men in coverage. *sigh*

If that's what we're moving away from, COOL!

I agree with others who say that lack of talent was less the issue than how it was employed.

I don't see this as "The Plan" upsetting reason. I see "The Plan" as BRINGING reason. The previous planners misunderstood the talent they had and the talent that's available and how to get the most out of it on D.

I don't see Jackson and Magee as throwing out the baby with the bathwater. They're what makes the change to something better have a good chance of actually working.

Maybe you just don't get "the plan," Merlin. Goff and Brown are exactly the kind of O-Linemen you want in order to follow the NE model of offense. According to a fan on ArrowheadPride, the Erhardt-Perkins style/scheme, used by Parcells, among others, emphasizes power at the point of attack. Goff was playing this style at SD before Turner took over from Schottenheimer, and explains both why LT's numbers suffered and guys like Goff became expendable. He's a better fit if you're going to a punch-in-the-mouth style of offense.

Good post. Merl's right. Last years losses revolved around a VERY young D that lacked any real leadership. Not that Donnie or Pat Surtain were bad leaders, but the young guns actually need someone ON the field to follow. Hard to do that when your leaders are riding the pine due to injury. Look at Indy's D does without Bob Sanders in their line-up.

We have several strong leaders that've proven they're dependable, and have thrived in the type of system Pioli's introducing. Its hard making a change to a team who's young talent was drafted with another scheme in mind. He's doing the best he can with what he has on hand. With the D we had last year a change is something that HAD to happen. Who's to say it will work? But can it really be any worse than last year? Regardless of who's being used and where?

The AFC west is wide open right now. I'm looking forward to seeing what we can do, who else we can add thru FA, and what this year will bring for us going into 2010. It'll be interesting for sure. Can't wait tho! GO CHIEFS!!!

BRC:

You are setting up a false dichotomy. Last year, it was young talent that lacked veteran leadership. The leadership we counted on last year (Donnie Edwards and Pat Surtain) were injured most of the year. I didn't love the scheme. I thought Dorsey, in particular, was misused. Dorsey, Turk, Tank, Flowers and Carr are all young players I can see us building around. Tamba can still be a decent RDE in a 4-3. When you go to a 3-4, serveral of these players seem to be out of natural positions. The choice you present, either the players are bad or the system needs to change is a false choice. The system will change, but it does not need to change that radically. There are several possible changes that could be implemented. However, it appears that Pioli is committed to a radical change. That is what I an questioning here given the existing young talent.

Holy cow!!! A new post!!!
You guys need to do that more often. Arrowhead pride is taking over the reigns

Good post though.

Conceptually your argument is fine but there is a flaw in your logic. The Chiefs defense was not just bad last year...it was record setting bad. Was it the scheme(plan as you call it) or the personnel (implementation)?? Either the personnel are bad and then who cares if we lose a few of them or the plan was bad for the talents of the personnel and lets try something different. You seem to imply that the personnel are too good to lose but they wont fit a different scheme. A hopeless situation!!! Surely the evidence should lead us to try some new schemes and quit worrying about player measurables.... As Tyson Jackson said in his mini camp interview when a questioner asked whether he could adapt to a 3-4 since he played 4-3 in college..."..It's football".

i believe Pioli has "a plan", not "the plan".

No more reaching for Mr. Goodbar at DE. Instead, a sensible, solid pick, STARTING with the premise that he will anchor the middle and occupy linemen, rather than hoping he will shoot the gap and either drop the RB for a loss or run Michael Vick down in space all by himself...

I'm getting tired of the "He only won because of Brady" speech. Let me ask you this: How many rings would Phil Jackson have won without Jordan, Koby? How many Super Bowls would Shanahan have won without Elway? I could go on for hours. Coaches win with good players. That's how that works.

Great Post Merlin! I hate the fact that people blindly assume that anyone from the patriots will lead their respective franchise. But the record shows that this is not the case. It also kinda looks like that if Belicheat didn't have brady, he'd be another average coach. Following that assumption, i just hope Cassell is "the guy"
But I do think they are trying to play more to the specific talents. Clancy Pendergast has always been a 4-3 under guy hasn't he? Glen dorsey will shine when he's lined up one on one with someone. Tank will be able to line up and engulf two guys. Tamba(I hope anyways) will be a lot better when he's standing up russhing the qb(Demorrio Williams is along the same lines here). Tyson Jackson will be good in our system...I hope. so our defense is shaping up to be pretty good and promising. I think our defense was the main reason we lost like 10 of the 14 games last year. I personally don't think Pioli has done alot with the O-Line outside of signing goff. We're still weak on the Right tackle and center positions. Which might hurt us down the stretch..