For the first time in a long time, the Kansas City Chiefs are set to enter an NFL season after having missed the playoffs, as the organization suffered its first losing campaign of the Andy Reid era, dropping the final six games of the year to finish at an abysmal 6-11.
Now, heading into the 2026 season, the biggest storyline surrounding Kansas City is obviously Patrick Mahomes' health, as the two-time NFL MVP continues to recover after suffering a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee this past December during a Week 15 defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers and could very well miss the first few weeks of the year.
But even if Mahomes is healthy heading into Week 1, for the Chiefs to once again contend for a Super Bowl, they'll have to do so with a revamped roster, one that currently stands as the second-youngest in the entire league, by the way.
Nevertheless, despite the loss of several key contributors during free agency, not to mention trading away Trent McDuffie, Kansas City, no doubt partly thanks to a solid draft class, has been given a favorable position in a new set of roster rankings from The Athletic, coming in fourth behind only the Los Angeles Rams, the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, and the rival Buffalo Bills.
Chiefs' roster ranks fourth in expected margin of victory
Now, it does need to be noted that this list is different than those that see analysts simply giving their respective opinions on rosters, as this one was constructed using a specific formula.
Here, The Athletic's Austin Mock put together a model that, as he puts it, "uses various metrics and assigns a projection to each player to show their impact on a single game." Positional value is taken into account, with quarterbacks seemingly holding the highest importance, and the projections of each player are than tallied to determine every team's expected margin of victory, which indicates how many points a team is expected to win or lose by against an average NFL roster.
As mentioned, the Chiefs ultimately ranked fourth, with the model projecting them to defeat a given team by an average of 3.1 points. To show the full range, the list-leading Rams came in at +6.3, while the 32nd-ranked Miami Dolphins came in at -7.1.
What's interesting is that Mock didn't necessarily agree with what his own model projected for Kansas City.
"File this one alongside the Bills," Mock wrote. "Patrick Mahomes is doing a lot of work, and he's coming off a major injury, so there is more uncertainty than in years past. The Chiefs have a strong interior offensive line, but their tackles are a bit of a mess. The defensive line grades as very strong, and the linebackers room is underrated — I think both units are firmly in the league's top 10.
"It's hard for me to get fully on board with the Chiefs being this high, given their concerns at offensive tackle and wide receiver, but having Mahomes is a huge boost to their projection."
The reference Mock makes to the Bills is because he was also surprised that Buffalo ranked third, noting how Josh Allen carries a lot of the weight. And as he noted, Mahomes is carrying a lot of the weight for the Chiefs, which obviously makes a ton of sense given the impact he's made on this team and the league as a whole since stepping into the QB1 role in 2018.
So, while the revamped roster outside the QB position is obviously important, the Chiefs go as Mahomes goes, which, going back to where we started, is why he'll continue to be the biggest storyline surrounding Kansas City leading into the 2026 season.
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