The 2026 NFL schedule is finally out. Before today, we knew the “Who” and “Where,” but now we finally know the “When.” They’ll open the season against the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead and play on Thanksgiving yet again.
The Chiefs are projected to appear in six primetime games, which include three matchups on NBC, two on ESPN/ABC, and one on Amazon Prime.
What does the entire schedule look like, and how will the Chiefs fare in each game? Which games are stone-cold locks, and which ones could be challenging for Kansas City? Let's review every game on the Kansas City Chiefs' upcoming schedule and project the outcome of each matchup.
Week 1: vs. Denver Broncos (September 14, 7:15, ESPN/ABC)
The Denver Broncos had a relatively quiet offseason, but they didn't necessarily need a hectic one. They fell in the AFC Championship Game to the Patriots by a score of 10-7, without their starting quarterback, Bo Nix. It's fair to say that a trip to Super Bowl LX would have been well within reach had Nix not suffered that brutal ankle injury the week prior.
The Broncos' only glaring weakness was a lack of explosiveness in the passing game, and they moved to address it by trading the 30th overall pick, along with additional picks, to Miami for Jaylen Waddle. Whether that translates into a more dynamic offense remains to be seen, but given that it was the Broncos' most significant move of the offseason, they'll need it to pay off. It won’t take the Chiefs long to get familiar with Waddle, as they will see him make his Broncos debut in Week 1.
Who knows how long it will take Patrick Mahomes to get back to 100 percent? Even though he's likely to play in Week 1, it might take him a few games to get rolling again, which could be the recipe for an early stumble for Kansas City.
PREDICTION: Broncos 24, Chiefs 21 and the Chiefs start off 0-1.
Week 2: vs. Indianapolis Colts (September 20, 7:20, NBC)
The Colts come back to Kansas City fresh off what was simultaneously the most dramatic and final win of their 2025 season. Indianapolis always manages to make things interesting against the Chiefs, but interesting doesn’t always mean victory. Kansas City takes this one to avoid another 0-2 start.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 23, Colts 20 and the Chiefs go to 1-1.
Week 3: @ Miami Dolphins (September 27, Noon, CBS)
Unless Malik Willis turns out to be the next Sam Darnold and the 2026 Dolphins draft class goes down as one of the best in recent memory, Miami looks like one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. If the Chiefs actually drop this one, someone may want to start asking questions.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 38, Dolphins 17 and the Chiefs swim to 2-1.
Week 4: @ Las Vegas Raiders (October 4, 3:25, CBS)
The Raiders have undergone a lot of change this offseason. They brought in a new head coach in Klint Kubiak, added veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins and first-overall pick Fernando Mendoza under center, and, after a bizarre sequence of events that saw the Baltimore Ravens back out of a previously agreed-upon trade, managed to hold onto star pass rusher Maxx Crosby. Even so, keeping Crosby won't be enough to make Las Vegas a serious contender. The Raiders figure to be a much-improved team from a year ago, but expectations should remain tempered.
Andy Reid is currently tied for the most wins by a head coach at Allegiant Stadium with six. He'll make it seven this season and take sole possession of that record. With the Chiefs firmly focused on returning to the playoffs, a stumble against Las Vegas is simply not in the cards.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 30, Raiders 19 and the Chiefs and head into the bye week 3-1.
Week 5: BYE
Having the earliest possible bye week isn't ideal, but it's an adjustment the Chiefs will simply have to make. If they get off to a rocky start, whether offensively, defensively, or across the board, that early break could serve as an opportunity to regroup before the season slips away from them.
Week 6: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (October 18, 3:25, CBS)
After losing both starting offensive tackles very early in the regular season, Justin Herbert was hung out to dry in 2025. The main goal of Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz was to ensure that doesn't happen again. They signed Tyler Biadasz to play on the interior of the offensive line, as well as drafted four offensive linemen in last month's draft. In addition to bolstering the offensive line, they brought in the ex-Dolphins head coach to be their new offensive coordinator. Whether these moves will translate into a better team remains to be seen.
Given how this is their first game after the bye week, expect the Chiefs to come out firing and beat a talented and well-coached Chargers team.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 28, Chargers 25 and the Chiefs strike to 4-1.
Week 7: @ Seattle Seahawks (October 25, 7:20, NBC)
The Chiefs may have the toughest road schedule in the NFL this season, and this game could be the hardest one on that list. Whether the Seahawks are in for a Super Bowl hangover is anyone's guess, and it wouldn't be unprecedented for a defending champion, but until Seattle gives us a reason to think otherwise, they've earned the benefit of the doubt. The champs are the champs until they prove differently.
PREDICTION: Seahawks 33, Chiefs 23 and the Chiefs fall to 4-2.
Week 8: @ Denver Broncos (November 1, 3:25, CBS)
For the first time since 2014, the Chiefs were swept by the Broncos in the regular season last year, and it's hard to imagine Kansas City has any interest in letting that happen again. Winning this game will be critical to their chances of reclaiming the AFC West crown, and given that the Chiefs tend to be sharp coming out of bye weeks, expect them to get the job done here and avoid the sweep.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 26, Broncos 20 and the Chiefs ride to 5-2.
Week 9: vs. New York Jets (November 8, Noon, CBS)
It's the Jets. Even with the additions they made at wide receiver and tight end, their defense remains shallow and their quarterback is Geno Smith. For context: I scored the same number of points at Arrowhead last year as Geno Smith did. That should tell you everything you need to know.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 38, Jets 15 and the Chiefs fly to 6-2.
Week 10: @ Atlanta Falcons (November 15, Noon, CBS)
The Falcons are one of the more intriguing teams in the NFL heading into this season. They have an experienced new head coach in Kevin Stefanski and are apparently collecting left-handed quarterbacks like rare Pokémon, with both Michael Penix and now Tua Tagovailoa on the roster. Atlanta also boasts a young and talented defense, and all of that combined could make for a shocking upset. The Chiefs always seem to lose at least one stupid game per season, and this one could be it.
PREDICTION: Falcons 26, Chiefs 23 and the Chiefs fall to 6-3.
Week 11: vs. Arizona Cardinals (November 22, Noon, CBS)
As things stand, the Cardinals are looking at Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, or Carson Beck as their projected starter. Arizona may have one of the more exciting young skill-position groups in the league, but the rest of the roster isn't close to being competitive, even against a Chiefs team that may not be playing at peak form in 2026.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 33, Cardinals 16 and the Chiefs march to 7-3
Week 12: @ Buffalo Bills (November 26, 7:20, NBC)
Say it with me: the Chiefs lose to the Bills in the regular season. That has been the theme for the last five regular seasons, even if Kansas City has consistently had Buffalo's number when it matters most in the playoffs. Joe Brady is now the head coach in Buffalo, so maybe the Bills take a step back this year, but they remain a talented roster built around one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen. Hopefully, the Chiefs don’t ruin yet another Thanksgiving for their fans…
PREDICTION: Bills, 35, Chiefs 28 and the Chiefs fall to 7-4.
Week 13: @ Los Angeles Rams (December 3, 7:15, Amazon Prime)
This one will be a strange watch for a lot of Chiefs fans, as they'll find themselves, perhaps for the first time, rooting for cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to get burned. Trading McDuffie to the Rams was Kansas City's most high-profile move of the offseason, and Watson followed shortly after, signing with Los Angeles upon hitting unrestricted free agency. That dynamic aside, this game falls in the middle of the toughest stretch on Kansas City's schedule. Even though it's a Thursday night game, the Chiefs will have a full week off, and they'll need every bit of that time to come away with a win. But I don’t think it will be enough against a stacked Rams squad.
PREDICTION: Rams 28, Chiefs 27 and the Chiefs fall to 7-5.
Week 14: @ Cincinnati Bengals (December 13, 3:25, FOX)
Assuming Joe Burrow stays healthy, this will be yet another chapter in one of the better rivalries in the AFC. Cincinnati invested heavily in its defense this offseason, bringing in the likes of Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen, Cashius Howell, and former Chief Bryan Cook. Whether those additions amount to a competent unit remains to be seen, but a powerful Bengals offense could give Kansas City's young secondary real problems. This is a road game with serious loss potential for the Chiefs, but they’ll be coming off a mini bye and be motivated to snap a two-game losing streak, making this a very winnable game.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 33, Bengals 30 and the Chiefs roar to 8-5.
Week 15: vs. New England Patriots (December 21, 7:15, ESPN/ABC)
As has been the case every season since 2015, the Chiefs will face the defending AFC champion in the regular season. The 2025 Patriots are probably being written off too harshly, but a meaningful step back still seems likely. Drake Maye looks every bit like a franchise cornerstone in the making, but he's played in Arrowhead, and Chiefs fans will be more than happy to give him an introduction he won't forget.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 24, Patriots 21 and the Chiefs improve to 9-5.
Week 16: vs. San Francisco 49ers (December 27, 3:25, CBS)
The 49ers had one of their stranger offseasons in recent memory. Their draft raised some eyebrows, they added Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk is still on the team, I guess, and the team worked through yet another of what has become an almost annual contract standoff with Trent Williams. San Francisco may not be the powerhouse it was a few years ago, but this is a well-coached team with genuine weapons on offense. The Chiefs could absolutely lose this game.
PREDICTION: 49ers 24, Chiefs 17 and the Chiefs fall to 9-6.
Week 17: @ Los Angeles Chargers (TBD, TBD, TBD)
The Chargers will likely be fighting for a playoff spot, but the Chiefs may very well be fighting for the AFC West title. Los Angeles has yet to beat Kansas City at SoFi Stadium, and I don’t expect that streak to end this season.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 31, Chargers 23 and the Chiefs bolt to 10-6.
Week 18: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (TBD, TBD, TBD)
Given how this game isn’t on Christmas Day or during another pandemic (knock on wood), the Raiders won't be leaving Kansas City with a win. The Chiefs will handle business against what projects to once again be the weakest team in the AFC West in a game the Chiefs might need to win to secure the AFC West in the final week of the season.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 34, Raiders 13 and the Chiefs finish 11-6.
Conclusion
This season represents the widest range of possible outcomes the Chiefs have faced in several years. In some ways, it feels reminiscent of 2022, when the team traded away a high-profile player for significant draft capital and questions were raised about whether the offense could survive without Tyreek Hill. The questions in 2026 are different but equally significant: How fast will Patrick Mahomes recover from his knee injury? Can the pass rush take a meaningful step forward? And can a secondary that lost two cornerstones in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson hold up?
The most likely outcome is somewhere around 10-12 wins, though this roster has a realistic ceiling of 13 or 14 wins if things break right, and a floor closer to 9 or 10 if they don't. What's easy to forget is that last season, even before Mahomes went down with a torn ACL/LCL, the Chiefs were losing nine of every 10 one-possession games. A team that went 1-7 in close games before losing its quarterback still probably finishes with 8-9 wins in a full season. Just as Kansas City ran remarkably hot in close games in 2024 and paid for it with regression in 2025, there's a reasonable case that the pendulum swings back the other way in 2026.
An 11-6 finish likely isn't enough to reclaim the AFC West crown, but it should be more than sufficient to secure a Wild Card spot. Realistically, it may take two years to get this roster and cap situation back to the point where the Chiefs are a true Super Bowl threat.
Much of how this season goes hinges on how quickly Mahomes gets back to being himself. He will almost certainly be active in Week 1, but being available and being at full strength are two different things. If the offense rediscovers its pre-2023 form and the pass rush becomes a genuine weapon again, this team can compete with anyone. If the offense continues to underperform and the pass rush remains a liability while the secondary takes a step back, another missed playoff appearance is very much on the table. The margin for error is thin, and the wide range of outcomes is real.
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