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Why the Chiefs offense will thrive against the Patriots in Week 4

By Jordan Mannix

FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS - DECEMBER 08: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass in the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on December 08, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
FOXBOROUGH, MASSACHUSETTS - DECEMBER 08: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs throws a pass in the game against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on December 08, 2019 in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images) /
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Patriots defense’s basic statistical production is weak

The Patriots defense’s basic production doesn’t do them favors either. For context, the Patriots have played an underwhelming Miami Dolphins team, a great offense in the Seattle Seahawks, and a streaky but altogether inconsistent Las Vegas Raiders team. With two of their three contests against below average teams, you’d expect their basic production to be high, right?

Thus far that is not the case. Below is a list of some of the more telling basic statistics, how the Patriots have fared, and where their production ranks in the NFL:

  • Points allowed per game – 22.0 – 11th in the NFL
  • Passing yards allowed per game – 235.3 – 11th in the NFL
  • Yards per pass – 7.8 – 27th in the NFL
  • Opponent Completion % – 72.22% – 29th in the NFL
  • Rushing yards allowed per game – 122.3 – 19th in the NFL
  • Yards per rush – 4.6 – 21st in the NFL
  • Points per play – .379 – 15th in the NFL
  • Yards Per Play – 6.2 – 25th in the NFL
  • Red Zone TD% – 55.56% – Ninth in the NFL
  • 3rd Down Conversion % Allowed – 37.04% – 7th in the NFL

Not every single one of those is terrible, but very few are good when you consider the competition they have played against. What’s even more compelling is that the Patriots performed significantly worse in every single one of these categories against the Seahawks.

The Seahawks are the only team the Patriots have played comparable to the Chiefs, with a great offense and average defense. This makes the Patriots Seahawks game a useful proxy for the performance we should expect from the Patriots defense on Sunday.If that is any indication, the Chiefs offense has no excuse to score less than 30 points.

With two of the three aforementioned measuring sticks covered, does Football Outsiders corroborate the story so far?

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