Why the Chiefs offense will thrive against the Patriots in Week 4
The Kansas City Chiefs take on the new look New England Patriots on Sunday, and the offense in particular should have a big day.
The Kansas City Chiefs will play their second home game Sunday afternoon against the new-look New England Patriots, helmed by a different quarterback than Tom Brady for the first time in 20 seasons. The offense isn’t the only thing that feels different, as the once vaunted defense has taken some licks the past three weeks as well.
Through most of the first half of last season, after playing a bevy of mediocre opponents, the Patriots defense was ranked first in nearly every category from both a basic and advanced statistical point of view. There were those in the national sports media who were hailing them as the reincarnation of the 1985 Chicago Bears. Some even thought they might be the best defense to every step on the gridiron.
While they maintained a certain level of quality throughout the rest of the season, the shine began to wear off a little near the end. If the beginning of the 2020 season is any indication, that shine has not returned nor should it be expected.
Through three games the unit has not played particularly well. When evaluating teams, it’s helpful to look at several measuring sticks, so for this piece we’ll look at Pro Football Focus’ rating of each individual player, the overall unit’s basic production, and Football Outsiders ranking of the unit’s efficiency.
Pro Football Focus ratings are not pretty
There are those who will see this section and immediately disregard the point. Pro Football Focus has come under some fire from local pundits recently, and deservedly so. They seem to have some unique takes on good performances that don’t always add up. Still, as a piece of the puzzle, their rankings are helpful. If they tell a completely different story than the basic and advanced stats, you can presumably disregard them.
For context, a grade of 0-60 is poor, 60.9-69.9 is below average, 70-79.9 is above average, 80-89.9 is good to high quality, and anything above 90 is elite. I’ll focus primarily on the starting unit as they will see the majority of the snaps on Sunday.
Pro Football Focus’ ranking system has not looked too kindly on the Patriots through three games. Their defensive line, something that has proven pivotal in even slowing down Patrick Mahomes, has graded poorly at an average of 52.73. Even this is buoyed a bit by Lawrence Guy’s rating in the 60s, as the other two starters graded out below 50.
The story is the same in the middle. A team that boasted multiple stars in Jamie Collins, Dont’a Hightower, and Kyle Van Noy last season holds none of that talent in 2020. The overall grade for the group is 55.05, but again this rating is buoyed by one player. Chase Winovich is the only player graded above 60.
You could call the secondary their strength, but as we’ll see later on in the article, with strengths like this, who needs weaknesses? The group has a whole averages a 63.23 grade, which is ironically dragged down by Stephon Gilmore’s poor grade of 55.3. It’s not completely uncommon for a corner to follow up a great season with a poor one, and Gilmore’s start is anything but stellar.
The overall grade for the starting unit is 57.39, showing that every levels of the Patriots defense has had a poor start to the 2020 season. Not a good sign for a team headed to play one of the best offenses in the league.
Pro Football Focus’ grades only tell part of the story. What do the basic and advanced stats tell us?