Why the Chiefs offense will thrive against the Patriots in Week 4

Advanced statistics predict another poor performance

Last season, this was the measuring stick that was most impressive for the Patriots defense. Through 16 games, they were the number-one ranked defense when you considered their production on a play-by-play basis relative to the rest of the league.

The weighted rating, which accounts more heavily for recent games, saw them drop slightly but still maintain an impressive ranking at number three. This season the decline has been precipitous.

Through three games the Patriots have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking 25th overall. The weighted rating paints an even uglier picture with them falling to 28th out of 32 defenses.

Surprisingly, in contrast to both Pro Football Focus’ grading and the basic statistical rankings, they’ve shown greater strength against the run than the pass. Still, neither should be considered a strength as they rank 19th and 27th respectively.

For comparison, on average through three games, the Chiefs have played against the 13th best defense overall. The Texans, Chargers and Ravens averaged 19th against the run and 12th against the pass. Only the Texans ranked lower than the Patriots overall, ranking one spot lower at 26, and the Chiefs easily scored 34 against them.

What does this mean?

It should be fairly clear by now that at least to start the season, the Patriots defense is not a formidable foe. This is very surprising, as the departure of Tom Brady brought expectations of a defensive-minded team focused on ball control.

What has played out is the opposite of expectations. If the Chiefs offense comes out and performs anywhere close to where they did against the Ravens, a much tougher unit, there’s no reason they shouldn’t set a high mark for the early season.

I’m not predicting a 40-point game, as I think it’s possible the Chiefs are leading big late and take their foot off the gas, but it wouldn’t shock me at all. As long as the defense is able to slow Cam Newton, who one could argue is a lesser version of Lamar Jackson at this stage, the Chiefs should win this game going away.