Five keys for the Chiefs to defeat the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV
Just Have Average Run Defense
A lot has been made about the potential advantage the 49ers could have running the football in this game. That’s understandable given that the 49ers rushed for 285 yards in the NFC Championship Game and the Kansas City Chiefs ended the regular season with the 26th-rated run defense in rushing yards allowed and 28th in yards per carry allowed. If you just stop there its easy to see this as a huge advantage for the 49ers and, conceivably, their path towards winning the Super Bowl.
However, anyone that has watched the Chiefs all season knows that the run defense has been vastly improved over the Chiefs current eight-game winning streak which includes their two playoff wins. You don’t have to go back any further than the AFC Championship Game against the Tennessee Titans to see that improvement. Derrick Henry was on an all-time great playoff run and many predicted him to dominate the Chiefs run defense. We all know how that ended, with Henry rushing for just 69 yards on 19 carries.
Here’s the thing: the Chiefs don’t have to hold the Niners to just 85 yards rushing like they did the Titans to win this game if they follow through on the other keys in this post. If they pass protect well enough that Mahomes and the passing attack can work their magic and they don’t make huge mistakes to set up the 49ers, then they will put enough pressure on Kyle Shanahan to open things up on offense and force Jimmy Garoppolo to make plays the same way they forced the Titans and Ryan Tannehill to.
The 49ers were able to put up massive rushing numbers against Green Bay because the Packers only scored 7 points in the first three quarters of the game. The week before, the Minnesota Vikings only scored 10 points the entire game. In their first two playoff games, they’ve been able to dominate with the run because the opposing team wasn’t scoring. Yes, they have a good run game, but if the Chiefs are scoring points they won’t be able to keep pace by running the ball and averaging just 104 passing yards like they have through two playoff games.
Yes, Garoppolo had a good season and put up good numbers in some important games earlier this season, but by the time the Super Bowl kicks off, he will have only attempted 27 passes in the previous five weeks. That’s not exactly a good way to get in a groove heading into the biggest game of your life. The Chiefs need to make him prove he can keep pace. Playing solid run defense is part of that, but I’d argue that scoring points on offense is even bigger.
The Chiefs can give up some yards here and there on the ground as long as they are scoring points. They just can’t be so awful against the run that the 49ers can run the ball down their throat all game long and keep pace with the Chiefs offense. As long as K.C.’s defense can make some plays here and there against the run and force the 49ers into third downs where Garoppolo has to make plays, they will be fine. Thankfully, the Chiefs defense has looked capable of making stops in the run game thus far in the playoffs.
Which brings me to my next point.