Five keys for the Chiefs to defeat the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV

Win On Third Down

This Super Bowl may very well be won or lost on third down plays in this game. If the Chiefs want to keep drives advancing, they need to keep 3rd downs manageable and keep the 49ers pass rush from pinning their ears back and getting to Mahomes. If the 49ers want to win they need to keep third down plays short to keep K.C.’s defense guessing and take the pressure off of Garoppolo.

In the regular season, both of these teams won on third down. On offense the Chiefs were the number one third down team in the NFL, converting 48% of their third downs. The 49ers weren’t far behind them in 5th place at 45%. Defensively, it was San Francisco that was better in the regular season where they only allowed 33% which was tied for 2nd best in the NFL while the Chiefs were 12th at 37%.

The Chiefs faced another good third down defense last week in the Titans who were 8th best in the NFL and the Chiefs won that match up, converting 60% of their third downs in the AFC Championship. They also held the Titans to just 30% of their third downs. While the Chiefs don’t need that dominant performance on third downs to win this game, they do need to come out on top in that department.

I believe that K.C.’s run defense is good enough right now to force the 49ers into third down situations on a regular basis, but they have to win those third downs or they’ll allow San Francisco to keep extending drives and wear down the Chiefs defense with increased snaps. A big part of that will be coming up with a plan for 49ers tight end George Kittle. Assuming K.C. can force the 49ers into 3rd down situations, finding a way to limit Kittle could go a long way towards stopping San Francisco.

Next to scoring points there may not be a more important thing to do in this game than win on third down. I know that’s basic football 101, but I believe it to be especially true for the Chiefs when they are on defense. The 49ers offense isn’t the explosive long play threat that the Chiefs are. The Chiefs had 18 passing plays of over 40 yards this season, most in the NFL. San Francisco was 17th with just eight passing plays of 40 yards or more. The 49ers need to extend drives in order to score points and if the Chiefs defense can get them off the field that is a huge win for the Chiefs.

Finally, Andy Reid has to pull out all the stops.