Five bold predictions for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019

A Top-15 Defense

The Chiefs’ defense was absolutely dreadful last year, wasn’t it? It wasn’t just hard to watch at times, it was literally hard to watch all the time. There were brief stretches where it seemed like maybe the staff and players were beginning to sync up, but those were always followed by bitterly depressing outings.
Think of the divisional round playoff against the Indianapolis Colts versus the AFC championship game against the New England Patriots. One showcased creative schemes and great individual plays; the other showcased what fans had seen all year: a near allergic reaction to the run-game and an inability to competently cover a receiver for more than a second or two.

After the season, the command came from on high to tear the entire defense down piece by piece. Bob Sutton was fired, a new defensive coordinator was brought in, long-time veterans were jettisoned, a number of new players were brought in through free agency and trade, and the base defense will now showcase a 4-3 base versus the 3-4 fans have grown accustomed to after so many years. It is a new era on the defensive side of the ball. Will it all work?

I think the defense has a realistic shot of being a top-15 unit next season. There are a couple reasons for this. The first is defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s track record and year off. In his nine seasons as a defensive coordinator and head coach he has averaged 20th in the league in points against and 21st in the league in yards against. He’s actually performed slightly better when you just look at his time as defensive coordinator, averaging 19th in points against and 20th in yards against.

To some of you this may seem alarming. However, take into account that Spagnuolo took last season off. I think this is important for two reasons. In my experience, highly successful people generally like to work. I think that taking a year off has likely made Spagnuolo that much hungrier. Additionally, while he took the year off from coaching, he didn’t take the year off completely. He reportedly used that time to study some of the trends on offense. Being an expert and having the time to take a step back from your craft and critically evaluate how you approach it can work wonders for some people.

Another reason to be optimistic about the defense is that for the first time in several years, opposing offensive coordinators won’t really know what to expect. A major reason for the deterioration of the defense over the last several years was Bob Sutton’s inability, or refusal, to change the way he approached opposing offenses. It can’t be more perfectly illustrated then it was in the AFC Championship game.

In that game, both Tony Romo and the Patriots knew exactly what to expect. Romo correctly called numerous plays that the Patriots would run against the Chiefs’ scheme. On the flip side, in interviews after the game, several Patriots’ players stated that the defense wasn’t difficult to figure out and that Brady had the right call nearly every time he stepped to the line. My point is this: at least for a short time, the league will have to catch up to what Spagnuolo is doing. At least for this next season, there’s some level of uncertainty as to what the Chiefs’ defense will look like and that can be an advantage. That’s something this unit hasn’t had in years.

Finally, the Chiefs’ defense should be far more well-rounded than it was this past season. Last year it struggled both against the run and the pass. To address the run, Veach has churned the NFL to find big, athletic defensive lineman who are all competent to good against the run. I seriously doubt we will have the problems we had last year.

To address the pass, Veach has completely revamped the safety group adding a veteran stud in Tyrann Mathieu and drafting a great athlete with potential in Juan Thornhill. Add to that a solid veteran in Bashaud Breeland to beef up the outside corner position, and while the pass defense is still a question mark, it is in a far better position than it was 12 months ago.

The Chiefs having a top-15 defense is probably the boldest prediction on this list, but this wouldn’t be a very risky bold predictions list if there wasn’t at least one that seemed very difficult, if not improbable.