Struggling pass defense raises alarms for Kansas City Chiefs' postseason outlook

The Kansas City Chiefs 2024 season has been one long contradiction between the wins they keep stockpiling and the way they look while winning those games.

The Chiefs may have flirted with disaster in their 30-27 win over the Carolina Panthers, but they found a way to pull off another ugly win in a season with more ugly wins than I care to try and recount here. The Chiefs' offense actually played pretty well outside of some very questionable pass protection, but the defense was another story. The team's pass defense was a problem in this game, and it's becoming a disturbing trend for the Chiefs.

Over their past five games, the Chiefs have allowed Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield, Bo Nix, Josh Allen, and Bryce Young to complete a combined 70.5% of their passes with 8 touchdowns and only 1 interception. That's not exactly a murderer's row of quarterbacks either. Yes, Josh Allen is great and Baker Mayfield is having a nice season, but if the Chiefs are allowing that group to complete 70% of their passes with an 8-to-1 TD / INT ratio, it doesn't bode well for the playoffs where K.C. will consistently face quality quarterbacks.

So why has Kansas City's pass defense been struggling so much lately? I believe there are three main reasons.

1. The Jaylen Watson injury was a bigger deal than we thought

I mentioned that KC's pass defense has really struggled over their past five games despite facing some mediocre quarterbacks and passing attacks over that stretch. Well it just so happens that those five games date back to when KC lost cornerback Jaylen Watson to what is likely a season-ending injury.

At the time of the injury, most Chiefs fans recognized that it would be a blow to their defense because Watson had clearly established himself as Kansas City's number two cornerback and had been playing really well. However, Steve Spagnuolo has had a track record of getting solid corner play out of replacement-level corners. So while most fans thought there would be some drop in the corner play, the hope was they would find a way to mitigate Watson's loss. Unfortunately, that hasn't happened so far.

Nazeeh Johnson has struggled as the Chiefs' main replacement for Watson. There has been some clamoring for Joshua Williams to get more time because of Johnson's struggles, but Johnson hasn't played great in his limited snaps either and Spagnuolo seems to still prefer Johnson. That hasn't stopped opposing quarterbacks from targeting Johnson on a regular basis and finding success in doing so.

The other trickle-down effect of Watson's injury is that the Chiefs can't afford to use McDuffie in the slot anymore. Consequently, they've had to use Chamarri Conner in the slot. Conner is more of a nickel safety than a true slot corner. While he's good in run support and can get physical with tight ends and receivers, he isn't near as good in coverage as a play wears on. Unfortunately, lots of plays are being extended right now because of the second reason on this list.

2. The Chiefs pass rush stinks right now

The Chiefs have had an above-average pass rush in the past couple of seasons, but they've struggled to get after the quarterback at the same rate this season. In fact, I wrote about how their outside pass rush stinks just this past week. The Chiefs simply aren't getting to the quarterback like they used to.

Chris Jones is still an elite player, but he's getting double-teamed on almost every passing play because the rest of K.C.'s front four just isn't that intimidating. As I pointed out in the piece linked above, they are one of the absolute worst teams in all of the NFL at getting pressure off the edges this season. The return of Charles Omenihu will hopefully help the overall pass rush, but he's never been someone who won with speed off the edge. So unless Kansas City is going to give Joshua Uche more snaps than he's been getting so far, the outside pass rush could remain an issue.

The other problem with K.C.'s pass rush is that Steve Spagnuolo's blitzes haven't been getting home either. Last season, the Chiefs had 17.5 combined sacks from linebackers and defensive backs. That's just over 1 per game. This season they only have 6.5 combined sacks from linebackers and defensive backs through 11 games. In other words, the blitzes aren't getting home as often this season. This lack of pass rush productivity is playing a major role in Kansas City's drop-off in pass defense. In fact, it also directly relates to the final reason the pass defense is struggling.

3. The Chiefs safeties and linebackers aren't good enough to hold up in coverage with no pass rush

The Chiefs' lack of a pass rush is a problem in and of itself, but it's also having a trickle-down effect on KC's coverage. The Chiefs' linebackers and safeties have never been elite in coverage, but Spagnuolo was able to use them effectively enough to get the job done. However, now that the pass rush has dropped off the suspect coverage skills of KC's safeties and linebackers are being exploited at a higher rate.

Nick Bolton has always had coverage issues, but the longer he is asked to cover, the worse it is. Even Drue Tranquill, who had been good in coverage before, has seen his effectiveness in coverage drop off this season. Justin Reid and Bryan Cook aren't terrible in coverage, but again as plays drag on and the pass rush doesn't get home they can be picked on. We already mentioned that Chamarri Conner is basically a safety playing slot corner and his coverage skills are breaking down as plays are extended as well.

These three factors are really holding KC's pass defense back. While the Chiefs may be good enough to keep finding ways to squeak out wins in the regular season, they are going to need their pass defense to play better if they want to win out in the playoffs. With Watson likely done for the year, their cornerback play may not be much improved and their safeties and linebackers aren't going to improve their coverage either if opposing quarterbacks continue to have all day to wait for someone to come open.

The Chiefs' only real hope to improve their pass defense is to find a way to get pressure on the quarterback more consistently. Last year they were second in the NFL in sacks. They have to find a way to get back to that kind of pass rush.

Charles Omenihu may help, and playing Joshua Uche more could help, but Steve Spagnuolo is also going to have to do a better job of catching opposing quarterbacks off guard by disguising blitzes and getting after the quarterback more effectively. If not, the issues we've seen over the past five games could be too much for them to overcome in the playoffs.