NFL Predictions, Week 5: How will the Chiefs offense respond without Rashee Rice?
How many times have you, presumably a Chiefs fan like myself, walked away from a win over a divisional opponent on the road feeling worse about the team than you did when the game kicked off? Going back to October 17, 2019 would be a good start. That night the Chiefs beat the Broncos 30-6 in Denver, but lost Patrick Mahomes to a knee injury. While a much more muted pain, the pain was still present after the Chiefs 17-10 Week 4 win in Los Angeles last Sunday with the massive question marks surrounding the health of Rashee Rice.
I bring up the Mahomes injury to drive home a bit of a point here. The Chiefs have all but banned Mahomes from the QB sneak since that game, but the team is OK with him barrelling headfirst into defenders (and receiver's knees) trying to make a tackle after an interception? Tongue in cheek, obviously, but the irony there kind of got me and I'm sure a few of you as well.
The Chiefs march on with more questions than they had going into Week 4, but undefeated nonetheless. Kansas City stands alongside Minnesota as the NFL's lone undefeated teams roughly a quarter into the 2024 campaign, and both will face interesting challenges in Week 5. To go along with these storylines, we have the Bills and Texans facing off in Houston in a matchup of AFC contenders, and, well, not much else. The slate may be bland, but it's always darkest before the dawn, right?
After another 10-6 showing last week, we're slightly better than average here in the Arrowhead Addict Picks and Predictions at 39-25 on the season. We're a wild card team in terms of what our record would get us in the NFL playoff hunt. In honor of the keeping-our-head-above-water performance so far, I'm going to give you the wild card player (or coach, or both) that will sway each game this weekend.
New Orleans Saints at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday Night Football)
Derek Carr coming to Arrowhead for a primetime game should stir confidence in Chiefs fans, right? Most of the time, yes, but at the moment it seems all anyone can focus on is who the Chiefs might be able to trade for in the wide receiver market with the NFL's trade deadline a little over a month away.
The Saints present an interesting challenge to KC simply from the standpoint that there is absolutely no telling which version of the team to expect.
One version of the Saints put up 40+ points in Weeks 1 and 2 and the team started out 2-0. The other version has since gone 0-2 and in one game scored 12 points and the other became the first team since 1983 to lose a game while scoring 24+ points and not allowing a touchdown to the opposing offense. The last team to do that in 1983? The New Orleans Saints.
New Orleans comes into this matchup with a fairly stout defense, but could be without arguably their 3 best defensive players against Kansas City. Linebacker Demarrio Davis is questionable on the injury report, and a pair of former Chiefs—Tyrann Mathieu and Willie Gay—likely won't play Monday night against their former team. This will create a pretty big gap in the Saints' run defense, which will likely be an issue against the Chiefs offensively.
While there are question marks on the outside of the Kansas City offense, the running game got a very pleasant shot to the arm from old friend Kareem Hunt last Sunday against the Chargers. Hunt had 85 yards on 16 touches in his (latest) debut with the Chiefs and looked to have not lost a step. That is a welcome sight to a team missing 3 of its top 4 offensive weapons.
The next few games may be ugly for Kansas City. Not from the traditional viewpoint of compounding multiple losses. I believe Kansas City will go into their bye undefeated and stand a good chance to stay that way until a Week 11 matchup with Buffalo. The ugliness will come from their style of play, which stands to be a shift toward a run-first approach. What the Saints are missing and what the Chiefs have found recently should bode well for Kansas City in this one. Chiefs 24, Saints 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (Thursday Night Football)
There are several wild cards on the field in this matchup, but the biggest one is going to be whether or not the Falcons coaching staff can wake up and realize what weapons they have on the offensive side of the ball. Raheem Morris's team has looked shockingly like Arthur Smith's Falcons with a significant upgrade at the quarterback position. This will determine the early season leader in the NFC South clubhouse. Buccaneers 27, Falcons 24
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings
The Jets are a disaster and the ultimate wild card, arguably in the NFL right now, is the massive tension in the room between Robert Saleh and Aaron Rodgers. If they can't beat Denver, they aren't taking out the undefeated Vikings. Vikings 33, Jets 19
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams hasn't been "that guy" yet, but he still can get there. Don't look now, but the Bears have the Panthers, Jags, Commanders, Cardinals, and Patriots over the course of the next 5 weeks. Chicago could very easily be 6-3 heading into a Week 11 matchup with Green Bay. Bears 29, Panthers 20
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
The wild card here is which Ravens team will show up. The tough nose run game Ravens, or the "Try to throw the ball more than they should" Ravens. I don't want to see either of these teams win, but I love seeing the Bengals lose, especially when it sends them to 1-4. Ravens 17, Bengals 13
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
The only wild cards here are those who will dig deep and play good enough (or not bad enough) to win this game. Patriots 13, Dolphins 9
Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders
Is Jayden Daniels for real? I think so. The wild card of karma will continue to haunt the Browns for electing to give Deshaun Watson a quarter of a billion dollars. Commanders 24, Browns 14
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
The wild card is the old man, Joe Flacco. Is he better now than he was 10 years ago? Many are saying yes. Some are saying that I'm making that up about many saying that. Sunday's matchup will hopefully convince you that I'm correct. Colts 22, Jags 16
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
The Bills got punched in the mouth from the opening snap last week and never recovered. It will be interesting to see how they bounce back against a Texans team that has won ugly this year. The CJ Stroud to Nico Collins connection has been elite all season, and I give the Texans the slight edge at home this weekend. Game of the week. Texans 28, Bills 24
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos
The official "don't care, flip a coin" Toilet Bowl game of the week. I need to get to work on a sponsorship deal from Toto or American Standard. Bo Nix will somehow throw for negative yards. Raiders 13, Broncos 10
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Did San Fran's entire roster walk through some sort of time-warp black hole the day after the Super Bowl and get no time for their bodies to recover in the offseason? Everyone is hurt, but it apparently doesn't matter. This feels like an inevitable 49ers win, but I have to get more consistent in picking upsets. Cardinals 23, 49ers 20
Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams
Biggest wild card: will the Packers have first-half Jordan Love or second-half Jordan Love from last week? If it's the latter, this one will be over by the end of the first half. The Rams are just too banged up. Packers 27, Rams 17
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
Daniel Jones is not playing at MetLife, so his chances of getting the ball into the end zone are exponentially greater. But Seattle is pretty good, I think. They just took one on the chin from a really good Detroit team on Monday night. If the Seahawks defense can turn Jones over just once, Seattle will win this game. Seahawks 29, Giants 20
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday Night Football)
The 1995 Bowl. This game would have been a headliner 30 years ago, now we just have a Cowboys team that has somehow lost the ability to run the ball or stop the run, and a Steelers team that is destined for another 9-8, 10-7 type of season. I'll be asleep before this one is over. Steelers 20, Cowboys 19