The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off back-to-back Super Bowl wins and are one of only two 4-0 teams to start the 2025 season, so it might seem crazy to argue that it's time for them to make a massive identity shift. However, that's exactly what they need to do.
The Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid era in Kansas City may have started with an aggressive passing attack like the NFL had never seen, but the current circumstances both with the Chiefs and the NFL as a whole point towards this team needing to embrace a run-first persona for the immediate future.
I can already hear your arguments:
- "You don't have the best quarterback in the NFL hand the ball off 30 times a game!"
- "You don't shift to a run-first offense while your best running back is injured!"
- "Andy Reid will never commit to the run, so this whole discussion is a waste of time!"
I hear you and I understand the logic behind all of those arguments, but I believe if you look at the circumstances that the Chiefs find themselves in, this truly is the best strategy for them for the time being. Hereare ten reasons why this shift in philosophy makes sense for the Chiefs.
1. The Chiefs don't have the personnel to run a pass-heavy offense
Yes, the Chiefs have a great quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, an aging Hall of Fame tight end in Travis Kelce, and a legendary offensive-minded head coach in Andy Reid. But if the past calendar year has taught us anything, that's not enough to have an explosive high-scoring offense built around consistently throwing the ball 30+ times a game.
The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year because their defense was amazing and Patrick Mahomes was able to scrape together enough clutch plays to get the job done. They won despite their struggling passing offense, not because of it. That was supposed to be remedied this year, but injuries to both Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and now Rashee Rice have made that nearly impossible. Yes, they can make a trade and bring in another receiver, but a new receiver will need time to learn the offense and it feels like that's just putting a band-aid on the problem.
The Chiefs also have a little bit of an offensive tackle issue. While we can debate if the tackle play has really been bad enough to justify Mahomes lack of faith in the protection/pocket, the bottom line is that the trust isn't there right now. Mahomes has developed happy feet and dropping back down after down and allowing the edge rushers to be in constant attack mode isn't helping the situation, especially when a subpar receiver group can't get open before he bails from the pocket.
2. The Chiefs can't afford to overload Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy
While I stand by the fact that the Chiefs simply don't have the personnel to run a pass-heavy offense right now, they do have two legit pass-catching options in Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy. If the Chiefs continue to try and be a pass-heavy team that either means giving way too many targets to players who aren't good enough to earn them or overloading the two (or even three if they make a trade) that they do have.
The Chiefs could probably find a way to make a successful pass-first offense that centered around Kelce and Worthy, but here's the problem: Travis Kelce is about to turn 35 years old and Xavier Worthy is a rookie that weighs 165 pounds (at most). Neither of those guys should be getting 10 targets per game for the next 13 games if you want them healthy and effective for the postseason. If you overload them they are going to, at best, wear down as the season progresses or, at worst, join Brown, Rice, and Isiah Pacheco on the growing list of injured offensive playmakers.
So if you can't overload Kelce and Worthy, your choice is to run the ball a lot more or start giving guys like Justin Watson, Skyy Moore, and Mecole Hardman a bunch of targets every game. I know which of those two options I would choose.
3. The Chiefs have a stable of running backs that can share the load
While starting running back Isiah Pacheco is injured, it doesn't mean that the Chiefs don't have running backs that they can lean on. Kareem Hunt looked great in his return to the Chiefs on Sunday. Samaje Perine has looked good both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield so far. Carson Steele has hurt himself with a couple of fumbles, but if they can get him to focus on ball security, he's also shown the power and tackle-breaking ability between the tackles that would be valuable in a more run-heavy game plan. The Chiefs also have Clyde Edwards-Helaire coming back soon and they could add him to the mix as well.
My point here is that the Chiefs don't have to put the weight of a run-first offense on the shoulders of any one guy. They can split the load and keep all of them fresh and running hard. Hunt may have looked like the best option on Sunday, but he's old enough that they would be wise not to run him down with 25 touches per game. Instead, they could give 8-12 touches to all three of these backs and ride the hot hand when needed.
4. The Chiefs are already a league leader in multiple tight end sets
The Chiefs don't have to completely redesign their playbook to move into a more physical run-heavy offense. Over the past couple of seasons, they have used 2 and 3 tight end sets at a higher rate than almost any team in the NFL. With Travis Kelce, Noah Gray, and Jared Wiley on the active roster and Peyton Hendershot and Jody Fortson on the practice squad, the Chiefs have the personnel to use multiple tight end sets on a down-to-down basis.
The Chiefs have also shown that they will both run and pass out of those multiple tight end sets, so it gives the Chiefs more blockers without completely taking away the threat of the pass. You can also make an argument that guys like Gray, Wiley, and Fortson may be better pass-catching options than some of their depth wide receivers. So the Chiefs could fully embrace a more physical approach and still keep their playcalling options open.
5. The Chiefs interior offensive line is built for a power run game
You can make a strong argument that the Chiefs have the best interior offensive line in the NFL. The trio of Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, and Joe Thuney are rock solid and would love a chance to impose their will on opposing defenders on a more regular basis. There is a very different mental approach to pass blocking as opposed to run blocking. When pass blocking it's about protecting your quarterback and hanging on for as long as you can. When run blocking it's about physically moving guys out of the way.
So while injuries are holding the passing game back, lean on these big guys up front and let them help carry the load. I guarantee that defenders aren't going to have the speed and energy to attack the quarterback in the 4th quarter if guys like Creed and Trey have been driving them into the turf play after play all game long. If they can get the defense on their heels it will allow Mahomes to relax in the pocket again and he'll be more comfortable when passing than he has been recently.
6. A run-first attack will help get Patrick Mahomes back to his old self
While I'm not worried about Patrick Mahomes, if we're being honest, he has had some struggles. He still helped carry this team to a Super Bowl win last season with mediocre at best offensive weapons, but he's also clearly been frustrated and not as trusting of the offense around him. The prolonged shortage of quality pass-catching options has him hesitant to pull the trigger on throws sometimes. Inconsistent pass protection from his tackles has given him "happy feet" in the pocket and sometimes he bails when he doesn't need to.
The Chiefs going to a run-first approach would take some of the pressure off of Mahomes and allow him to relax a little and not feel like he has to be Superman on every down for the offense to have a chance to do something. In fact, this leads me to one of my biggest reasons for being in favor of this shift in philosophy.
7. A run-first attack is the perfect counter to the current "2-high" craze
Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid almost single-handedly brought about the "2-high" defense movement that is all the rage in the NFL right now. For those that aren't familiar, this refers to defenses keeping two safeties back to prevent big plays in the passing game. It helps keep long passes from going over the defense if a corner gets beat and also adds an extra man back to tackle guys on run plays or short passes. The end result has been far fewer big plays and a lot more "dink and dunk" offenses.
The reason nobody was playing that much "2 high" when Mahomes broke into the league is that teams were more concerned about teams running the ball regularly on them than they were about there being enough teams that could torch them regularly for big passing plays. Mahomes and the Chiefs shifted that equation and now almost all teams are focused more on preventing big plays. However, that leaves one less defender in the box to help stop the run.
This is why a run-first offense is the best counter to the "2-high" defensive movement. If the Chiefs were to fully commit to the run it would force teams to bring a safety down closer to the line of scrimmage. That would open things up for more deep shots to Xavier Worthy, especially if the Chiefs were willing to use more play-action play calls along with the increase in run plays. I would also argue that if linebackers are having to focus on stopping the run it will open things up in the middle of the field for Travis Kelce as well.
8. The Chiefs defense is built for this type of approach
The best part about this is that the Chiefs defense is already having to play like a defense on a run-heavy team. The Chiefs offense hasn't been a high-scoring unit since 2022. They're already playing tight games where the offense has to lean on them. They did it all the way to a Super Bowl win last season. The only difference is that the Chiefs weren't doing it on purpose, they've just struggled to be a good pass-heavy offense.
If anything, running the ball more will eat more clock and keep the defense fresh for making plays when needed and they've already been excellent at it without that extra help. The Chiefs offense hasn't scored over 30 points in the past 14 games (including the playoffs). The Chiefs need to accept who they are right now. They're a defensive team that relies on its star quarterback to make just enough plays to get a close win. They need to just fully embrace that and lean into it. Run the ball, make a few big plays in the passing game, and lean on your defense.
9. The Chiefs have the special teams/punter for this approach
The last thing you have to be willing to do if you embrace a lower-scoring, defensive, run-first approach is to punt the ball sometimes to keep the field position in your favor. The good news is that through four games the Chiefs' punting unit has been fantastic. New punter Matt Araiza has been great. He's averaging over 50 yards per punt and has had 8 of his 12 punts downed inside the 20 so far this season. His giant leg can flip the field and that's perfect for this approach.
The combination of a great punter and strong defense can be a huge asset. We saw that in the Chargers game. The Chiefs were able to pin them back on numerous occasions and the end result was that the Chargers couldn't get any extended drives going for most of the second half.
10. The Chiefs have the field goal kicker for this approach too
If you are playing closer games, it is also important to trust your field goal kicker and the Chiefs just happen to have one of the best in the NFL at that position too. Harrison Butker has been lights out as he's proven himself to be trustworthy on long kicks, game-winning attempts, and everything in between. Yes, the offense wants to score touchdowns regardless of if it's a run-heavy or pass-heavy game plan, but if the game is close you sometimes have to take the points that are there and the Chiefs have a guy that can consistently get that done.
I understand that it may seem crazy to ask a Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid-led team to embrace a physical run-first persona, but I truly believe that it is what is in the best interest of this team (including Patrick Mahomes) right now. The Chiefs can always open things up if they need to, but they need to start going into games with the mindset of being physical, establishing the run, and trusting their special teams and defense to take care of the rest. I truly believe it will help open things up for Worthy and Kelce and help Mahomes find some of the confidence in the unit around him that seems to be lacking right now.
This roster is simply better built right now to play a physical run-heavy defensive brand of football than they are a spread pass-heavy attack like Reid typically prefers. They need to run to open up the pass instead of just occasionally running so that defenses have to account for it a little bit while focusing on stopping the pass. I know it would be a big change for Andy Reid especially, but he needs to think of this as being on the cutting edge of countering what defenses are doing. He needs to play to his team's strengths. Hopefully at some point before he retires that will include a high-flying passing attack again, but right now the team he is coaching needs to feature the run game.
So what do you think Chiefs fans? Am I taking crazy pills? Is it absurd to call for a Patrick Mahomes/Andy Reid offense to go run heavy? Do you agree that the roster is better built for that approach right now? Do you think the Chiefs will ever consider this? I'd love to read your thoughts in the comments below.