On the surface, the mere notion that a .500 team is the favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl may be absurd. However, oddsmakers believe that despite their relatively slow start to the season, the Chiefs are the AFC team most likely to be in Santa Clara on February 8.
If someone were to scoff at the idea of the Chiefs being Super Bowl favorites heading into Week 7, no blame would be passed. After all, all three of their losses contained a level of sloppiness that is uncharacteristic of a team with championship aspirations. In the Week 1 loss to the Chargers, Travis Kelce ran an erroneous route on the goal line that prevented a surefire touchdown, and Chris Jones lost defensive containment on the game-sealing drive.
In the Week 2 loss to the Eagles, Kelce dropped a would-be touchdown and deflected the ball right into the hands of rookie safety Andrew Mukuba, who returned it to midfield. The most egregious loss for the Chiefs this season was squandering an early 14-point lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars, with errors such as a 99-yard pick-six and a whopping 13 accepted penalties.
Despite their inconsistency, there has been plenty to like about the 2025 Chiefs thus far. For starters, Patrick Mahomes is playing his best football since his MVP campaign in 2022, which culminated in winning Super Bowl LVII. Mahomes has thrown 11 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions with a passer rating of 99.0. For context, the Chiefs started 5-1 in 2023, and while Mahomes had 11 touchdown passes, he had already thrown 5 interceptions and sported a passer rating of 95.7.
Numerous analysts and fans believe that Kansas City is once again the class of a conference they have dominated for over half a decade.
Through the first six games last season, Mahomes got off to the worst statistical start of his career with a negative touchdown-to-interception ratio (6 TDs and 8 INTs) and a career-low passer rating of 82.5. The upgrade in talent across the offensive line and skill positions has netted MVP-caliber results for Mahomes. The future Hall of Famer has also been a threat with his legs, rushing for 222 yards and four touchdowns, which already ties a career high. Mahomes has always been deadly as a scrambler, but he has taken that aspect of his game to a new level in 2025.
The season-long numbers for Mahomes and the offense don’t paint the full picture of their quality as a unit. Ever since Xavier Worthy returned from his shoulder injury, the Chiefs have averaged 31.6 points per game on offense, with two 30-point outings against the Ravens and Lions. In 2024, the Chiefs scored 30 points just twice across 20 games, one of which was in the AFC Championship. For the first time since 2022, there has been an ease when it comes to sustaining drives and putting points on the board.
Over this three-game stretch, Mahomes has 8 passing touchdowns to 1 interception and a passer rating of 114.2. The most exciting part is that Mahomes and the Chiefs have generated their production without the full array of weapons at his disposal, as Rashee Rice will make his season debut against the Raiders. With Rice entering the fold, the offense should be even more explosive, which will be a problem for opposing defenses.
While the Chiefs’ defense has had its down moments in 2025, such as their lackluster international performance against the Chargers and their inability to get timely stops against Jacksonville, the unit has largely performed well this season. Their most impressive performance was their most recent one. Entering last Sunday night, the Lions boasted the league’s highest-scoring offense and were in the midst of a four-game winning streak in which they averaged over 40 points per game. Despite having all of their preferred starters in the lineup, Detroit’s high-powered attack managed just 17 points against Steve Spagnuolo’s unit.
Before their puzzling performance down in Duval County, the Chiefs’ defense had been nothing short of superb from Weeks 2–4. In Week 2, they played more than well enough to beat the Eagles, allowing just 20 points. They held the Giants to just 9 points in Week 3 and limited Lamar Jackson and company to just 13 points before an inconsequential touchdown run by Justice Hill. On Sunday, the Chiefs will have an opportunity to climb the league-wide defensive rankings, as the Raiders present the least threatening opposing offense this season.
An additional case for the Chiefs to be the AFC’s best team is that the other playoff contenders in the conference contain their own issues. While there are currently seven teams with a better win-loss record than the Chiefs, an argument can be made that each of their records outweighs the caliber of teams they are.
The Bills (4-2) have lost two straight and are saddled with a shockingly poor defensive unit. Buffalo also lacks a true threat in the passing game, which has forced Josh Allen into playing hero ball the past couple of weeks. The Colts (5-1) have undoubtedly been impressive thus far, but four of their five victories have come against teams that have won two games or fewer. The Steelers (4-2) are coming off a loss to the Joe Flacco-led Bengals and have uncharacteristically struggled on defense, allowing two 30-point outings to offenses led by Flacco and Justin Fields.
The Chargers (4-2) have beaten Kansas City head-to-head but have dealt with a plethora of injuries since then, as LT Joe Alt, RB Omarion Hampton, and OLB Khalil Mack have (or are set to) miss substantial time. The Patriots, Jaguars, and Broncos (all 4-2) are solid, competitive teams, but all lack the offensive firepower and postseason experience to keep up with the Chiefs when they are at full strength.
Although they are a .500 ball club as it currently stands, the Chiefs being the favorites in the AFC is perfectly reasonable given their history, rediscovered offensive explosiveness, and the questions surrounding the rest of the conference. While the Chiefs still have ground to make up in the AFC West race and the AFC playoff picture as a whole, there have been plenty of signs over the past three games that they will once again be a tough out in January.
With that said, they still need to prove that the undisciplined football that has resulted in three losses is a mere blip on the radar and not a season-long theme. A good start would be to dominate a lackluster Raiders team on Sunday.