The Kansas City Chiefs’ 2025 draft class has been well-received by fans and experts overall. However, if there was one pick that raised some questions, it was the selection of Tennessee defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott in the second round. The Chiefs took Norman-Lott with the 63rd overall pick in the NFL Draft, and some questioned whether he was a bit too much of a gamble to go that high.
Norman-Lott's pre-draft evaluations had him going anywhere between the second and fourth rounds. That discrepancy was due in large part to his mix of limited playing time and high productivity. Tennessee used a large defensive line rotation that made all their players rotational in terms of snap counts. Norman-Lott made the most of his reps as a pass rusher (which could make him a perfect fit for the Chiefs’ NASCAR package), but was his sample size big enough to be reliable?
What does recent history say about the hit rate of late 2nd round defensive tackles?
Obviously, every draft pick is different, but I thought it would be interesting to see what the hit rate is for defensive tackles taken in this same area of the draft to understand what history suggests about Norman-Lott's chances of making it in the NFL. I did a similar study earlier this week with late first-round tackles and the Chiefs’ first pick, Josh Simmons.
Just like I did with Simmons, I examined the ten draft classes from 2014 to 2023. That's the ten most recent drafts, excluding 2024 because I think it's too soon to evaluate whether those players are hits or busts. I then looked specifically at defensive tackles taken within ten picks before and after pick 63 (where Norman-Lott was selected). That range of picks, 53–73, gave me a 21-pick span stretching from the mid-second round to the early third round.
In those ten drafts, I found 18 defensive tackles taken in that pick range. I will state, for transparency’s sake, that I had to make a few judgment calls on what qualifies as a defensive tackle. Some players were listed as defensive ends in the draft because the team selected them to play as 3-4 defensive ends in their system, which most consider to be more of a defensive tackle than an edge player.
Depending on how strict or lenient one is on that classification, my number of 18 could fluctuate by a player or two. However, I think the players listed below fairly represent the defensive tackles taken in this range across those ten NFL drafts.
Here is a year by year list of the defensive tackles taken in a similar range as Omarr Norman-Lott:
Name | Team | Year Drafted |
|---|---|---|
Adam Gotsis | Denver Broncos | 2016 |
Maliek Collins | Dallas Cowboys | 2016 |
Jonathan Bullard | Chicago Bears | 2016 |
Dalvin Tomlinson | New York Giants | 2017 |
Larry Ogunjobi | Cleveland Browns | 2017 |
P.J Hall | Oakland Raiders | 2018 |
B.J. Hill | New York Giants | 2018 |
Nathan Shepherd | New York Jets | 2018 |
Trysten Hill | Dallas Cowboys | 2019 |
Dre'Mont Jones | Denver Broncos | 2019 |
Raekwon Davis | Miami Dolphins | 2020 |
Nnamdi Madubuike | Baltimore Ravens | 2020 |
DaVon Hamilton | Jacksonville Jaguars | 2020 |
Dayo Odeyingbo | Indianapolis Colts | 2021 |
Alim McNeill | Detroit Lions | 2021 |
Gervon Dexter | Gervon Dexter | 2023 |
Zacch Pickens | Chicago Bears | 2023 |
Byron Young | Las Vegas Raiders | 2023 |
I then grouped those 18 players into either "Hits" or "Busts." I considered a hit to be any player who was a regular contributor for the team that drafted them and earned a second NFL contract. Again, a couple of these were debatable, but I ended up with the following results:
Defensive Tackle Draft Busts (22.2%)
- P.J. Hall
- Trysten Hill
- Zacch Pickens
- Byron Young
Defensive Tackle Draft Hits (77.8%)
- Adam Gotsis
- Maliek Collins
- Jonathan Bullard
- Dalvin Tomlinson
- Larry Ogunjobi
- B.J. Hill
- Nathan Shepherd
- Dre'Mont Jones
- Raekwon Davis
- Nnamdi Madubuike
- DaVon Hamilton
- Dayo Odeyingbo
- Alim McNeill
- Gervon Dexter
I was genuinely surprised at how high the hit rate was for this group. Maybe some of you reading this are more informed than I am, but I didn’t realize that lesser-known guys like Adam Gotsis and Nathan Shepherd have had long careers as starters in the NFL. I wrote in the Simmons piece that the 66.7% hit rate for offensive tackles taken in his range was likely going to be the highest we’d see as I worked through KC’s 2025 draft picks, but the 77.8% hit rate for defensive tackles in this range actually beat it handily.
My suspicion for why this hit rate is so high is that this range is often when we see the best run-stuffing defensive tackles come off the board. First-round guys are typically those who can both rush the passer and stop the run, while the second wave includes players who do one or the other well. Looking through those 18 players, there are more run-stopping defensive tackles than third-down pass-rush specialists. If we did a deeper study, my guess is that we'd find that the run-stoppers have a higher hit rate.
That said, even if pass-rushing defensive tackles have a lower hit rate than run-stoppers, a 77.8% hit rate is so unbelievably good that there’s plenty of margin for error. The overall hit rate for second-round draft picks is thought to be between 30 to 40 percent. So while fans may have had some concerns about Omarr Norman-Lott being a risky pick at No. 63 overall, recent history suggests that defensive tackles taken in this range are actually among the safest picks you can make.
You could argue that some fans of the teams who drafted the players in my “Hits” group may have wanted a more dynamic player at that point in the draft, but with hit rates in the 30s, a solid rotational player who earns a second NFL contract is a win. Period. Chiefs fans should keep that in mind when evaluating Norman-Lott’s contributions going forward. At the very least, we know that history is on his side.