Kansas City Chiefs have an obvious correct answer for their left tackle conundrum

It's funny how strong recency bias can be. About 72 hours ago, 90 percent of the NFL world had left the Houston Texans for dead. They were beaten solidly by the Kansas City Chiefs on December 21st and embarrassed on Christmas by the Baltimore Ravens. However, a nice defensive performance against the Chargers in the Wild Card round now has the league buzzing about the elite Texans' defense.

The Texans' defense was good when they came to Arrowhead in late December too. For most of the season, Houston's defense has carried what has been a disappointing offense. The Texans were the 2nd overall defense in DVOA and 5th in EPA per play compared to their offense which ranked 26th in DVOA and 23rd in EPA per play. The Texans have a clear formula to win especially after they lost star receivers Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs for the season.

The Chiefs have a tough question to answer at left tackle and they need to answer the question correctly. The Texans rank 4th in the NFL with 49 sacks Teammates Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter have combined for 23 sacks off the edge and helped pressure Justin Herbert on 19 of 36 dropbacks (52.8%) in the Chargers’ Wild Card loss to the Texans. Herbert faced 11 quick pressures (30.6%), including 5 unblocked pressures, resulting in his highest quick pressure rate faced in any career regular or postseason game.

Who should the Chiefs start at left tackle? Let's look at the candidates.

Looking at Joe Thuney

It's difficult to be objective about the job Joe Thuney has done at left tackle for several reasons. First, he's an incredible guard and player. It's so impressive that he can kick out and play NFL-caliber tackle that in itself is a huge feat.

It's also hard to be objective because of the surrounding variables. Thuney has faced: Myles Garrett, Will Anderson Jr, Danielle Hunter, and Alex Highsmith in his three starts at left tackle. Believe it or not, that's not the AFC's Pro Bowl roster it's just the rough run the Chiefs offensive line has faced. Thuney has played admirably, especially when you consider the level of competition.

It's also hard to be objective because of how modified the Chiefs game plan has been since inserting him at left tackle. Patrick Mahomes averaged his quickest time to throw of the season (2.34 seconds) and the second-quickest of his career against the Steelers, completing 20-of-24 pass attempts under 2.5 seconds for 190 yards and 2 touchdowns. Against the Texans, he averaged 2.50 seconds. Both games were his quickest time to throw since Week 4, 2021.

Andy Reid and the offensive staff are smartly adjusting their game plans to match the Chiefs' offensive line woes and their opponents' strengths. It also helps that those two games saw the return of Hollywood Brown who is able to add another speed element to the Chiefs offense.

Regardless of the game planning, the numbers for Thuney are still average at best. He's yielded 14 pressures in his 3 starts and is averaging 58.4 PFF pass-blocking grade. Looking at the tape, you can see Thuney brings a high floor to the tackle position, but he plays tackle like a guard. The lack of length can show from time to time. He's also a fluid mover in space, especially for a guard, but he still is vulnerable up the arc.

The biggest problem with Thuney at tackle is what you lose at left guard. Mike Caliendo is averaging a 28.1 PFF pass block grade in his 3 starts credited with 7 pressures. He's also a big step back as a run blocker, something the Chiefs offense has struggled with in the last quarter of the season.

The book on D.J. Humphries

What makes this choice even more difficult is the fact that the Chiefs don't know what they have in D.J. Humphries right now. The veteran signed with the Chiefs late in the season recovering from a torn ACL. He played about three quarters against the Chargers on December 8th before leaving with a hamstring injury. Week 18 didn't hold much significance for the Chiefs, but it did provide a look at Humphries healed up,

Similar to the evaluation of Thuney at left tackle, it's really hard to come away with a concrete evaluation of what Humphries can do in just 7 quarters of gameplay. Four of those quarters were with a left guard making his first start at guard in years, a backup QB prone to holding onto the ball too long, and the NFL's best pass rush needing to get to the playoffs. Additionally, Humphries is still knocking off rust.

With all of that said, there are moments you can see where Humphries is much smoother in his kick step and has the needed length to engage rushers up the arc. Thuney still plays tackle like a guard leaning at the waist more and he brings the fight to the rusher rather than pass-setting passively. However, Humphries is prone to bad reps that get him beat quickly. Humphries has been credited with 11 pressures and graded out at a putrid 30.5 pass-blocking grade via PFF. The Chiefs have not seen Humphries play well yet.

What's the right choice?

The choice isn't easy because there's still plenty we don't know. Are the Chiefs committed to this fast-paced "get the ball out offense" or is that going to limit them against playoff competition? Is Humphries improving in practice? Will the struggles of Mike Caliendo limit the run game or was that opponent driven?

With all of those questions up in the air, the best thing to do is to get your All-Pro left guard back. This puts 4 out of 5 starters back where they played the majority of the season. Something else to keep in mind is that Thuney will be facing the same team again just a month later. Those defenders are going to have tape on him at tackle and might have adjustments to take more advantage of him. Thuney should be highly praised for his play at tackle but the perception that he's playing good left tackle just isn't accurate. He's been below average in an offensive scheme planning around him. D.J. Humphries has looked below average with less help in his limited playing time.

It's also worth remembering that Thuney isn't leaving the team or anything. If Humphries struggles he can always move back out to left tackle. The question isn't Humphries versus Thuney; it's Humphries and Caliendo. Thuney at left tackle keeps the floor high of this offense, but keeping him at left guard raises the ceiling of the offense as a whole. If Humphries can be just average at left tackle, the Chiefs offensive line is one of the best in the playoffs and a key advantage on the quest for a three-peat.