Eric Bieniemy or Doug Pederson: Who could replace Matt Nagy as Chiefs’ OC?

It's been almost two full seasons with Matt Nagy as Offensive Coordinator once again, taking over for Eric Bieniemy, who left for Washington after the 2022-23 season. Nagy, who was also Offensive Coordinator back in 2017 before becoming Head Coach in Chicago for four seasons, has certainly grabbed the attention of Chiefs fans since then—but not always in a good way.

It's easy to be happy after two straight seasons ending with the Lamar Hunt Trophy and the pivotal Vince Lombardi Trophy both gracing the halls of Arrowhead Stadium. However, it's also easy to point at the offense under Nagy and see some glaring differences that might make fans yearn for change.

What's funny is that many fans aren't yearning for change forward, but rather backward—back to the years under Bieniemy when the offense ranked top three in yards for four of his five seasons as OC. Back to the years when Bieniemy was aggressively and visibly holding players accountable for mistakes in practice as well as in games.

So with Nagy's name being mentioned as a possible head coaching candidate this upcoming offseason, who could be the Offensive Coordinator of the future? Could it be Nagy once again, or could Bieniemy leave his comfy home in Los Angeles and return to Kansas City? Or...could another former OC return to wearing red on the sidelines after a stint as head coach elsewhere?

Why it's easy to miss Bieniemy...

Even though it's always been obvious that offensive play-calling goes through Andy Reid, then Patrick Mahomes changing it up at the line of scrimmage, then the Offensive Coordinator, that doesn't mean certain OCs haven't had better success in the position than others—and Bieniemy had the most success of them all.

One thing that should be mentioned is that Bieniemy was able to capitalize on a young gunslinger Mahomes who wanted to throw long rainbow passes to players like Tyreek Hill. With Bieniemy at the helm, the Chiefs ranked top six in point differential all five years, first in points in two separate years (2018, '22), and top three in net yards per passing attempt in four of five seasons.

This isn't the same type of Mahomes, nor is it the same type of offensive build, that he was graced with for five seasons. However, that doesn't mean he would fail or have trouble re-integrating a firepower, air-raid offense with players like Xavier Worthy, Rashee Rice, and maybe even Marquise "Hollywood" Brown on the depth chart next season.

With that said, if Bieniemy were to return after a year in Washington and a year at UCLA, would it be a return to that type of passing offense? Or would Bieniemy's history as a running back and run-heavy coordinator allow him to utilize players like Isiah Pacheco and Carson Steele to their fullest potential as he did with Mahomes at his start?

During 2022-23, Bieniemy's only year with Pacheco, he got the most out of the rookie from Rutgers with 170 rushing attempts for 830 yards during his only 17-game season so far in his young career. Add in another 197 rushing yards in the postseason, and it was obvious that both Bieniemy and Pacheco were in a groove that was cut short by injuries and the rise of Nagy to OC.

Since then, Bieniemy has not had the most success—both on the ground and in the win/loss columns. In his lone year in Washington, he did not have a great offensive line, which is not his fault. Yet, he still managed to produce an offense that generated the 7th-highest yards per attempt on the ground (4.4 ypa).

Sadly, his first year at UCLA is not going well either, both on the ground and overall. The Bruins currently sit 12th in the Big Ten with a 4-6 record and rank dead last in the Big Ten with 85.4 rush yards per game—the only team in the conference to not have 100+ yards—which could spell another one-year tenure that leaves him with open availability this upcoming offseason.

Comparing Nagy and Bieniemy isn't fair

Five seasons under Bieniemy and almost two full seasons under Nagy mean there will be some glaring differences in sample size, but it's still worth a look if Nagy truly is gone after this season and Bieniemy is truly looking for a job at the same time.

In 2017, when Nagy was OC with Alex Smith at quarterback, the Chiefs ranked fifth in offensive yards and sixth in points. Compare that to last season when he returned to the position and had Mahomes in a season after winning MVP and Super Bowl MVP. Last year's offense ranked ninth in yards and 15th in points—a massive drop-off that is continuing into this season.

Bieniemy never finished lower than sixth-best in either of those categories, even after losing the likes of Hill to Miami and managing a rebuilt offensive line throughout most of his tenure.

Currently, Mahomes only has a 3.1 Big Time Throw percentage (BTT), the lowest of his career by far. During Bieniemy's time in KC, Mahomes had an average of 5.56 BTT%. That coincides with Mahomes' average depth of target (aDoT), which has also gotten progressively shorter under Nagy, with an average of 6.65 yards compared to 8.32 under Bieniemy.

This could be due to the weakening left tackle position hurrying Mahomes during Nagy's time as OC, as shown by the amount of pressure he's facing per game (17.7% of pressures lead to sacks on Mahomes this season alone). That's one of the main reasons why it's hard to grade Bieniemy versus Nagy, especially this season when it feels like Mahomes is on the ground more often than ever.

What about Doug Pederson?

One other name that has been floating around is the former Chiefs Offensive Coordinator Doug Pederson, someone who has seen success at the highest level during his time away from Andy Reid but is back on the hot seat in Jacksonville after starting the year 2-9.

During Pederson's time as OC in Kansas City (2013-15), the Chiefs had the least number of interceptions all three seasons and ranked first in rushing touchdowns in his final season before leaving to coach the Philadelphia Eagles.

Those three seasons saw Alex Smith's aDoT sit at an average of 6.63 yards, an improvement over Mahomes under Nagy. That is also the three years that Smith got sacked at least 41 times in each season—the most of his career outside of one season (2011) in San Francisco (51). Ultimately, he was able to scheme long pass plays for Smith despite a poor offensive line that allowed pressure similar to what Mahomes seems to face every series this year.

If and when Pederson gets canned from Jacksonville, it could very easily be an upgrade from Nagy if he were to return to Kansas City as Offensive Coordinator. Not only that, he could be the heir apparent to Reid if and when he retires before the end of Mahomes' time in Kansas City.

No matter who takes over as OC next season, even if it's Nagy continuing his tenure, there are a lot of tough conversations that need to be had within the coaching staff on how to get Mahomes and the scheme back on track after two straight years of subpar points and yardage on the field.

Whether it's Bieniemy and his run-heavy past, or Pederson trying to recoup what he once had with Carson Wentz and even Trevor Lawrence, there could be plenty of opportunity for anyone not named Nagy next season.