One of the top priorities for the Kansas City Chiefs this offseason is fixing their running game. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, but the offense has been so lopsided in recent years that it has become predictable, and defenses are able to put all of their focus on Mahomes and the passing game. This is in large part due to the Chiefs’ attempts to save money and resources at the running back position, but that could potentially change this offseason.
The Chiefs could spend significant free agent dollars on a running back in free agency. Travis Etienne has recently been rumored to be on their radar. However, there is another option on the table as well. This draft has an elite top running back prospect in Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love. While other positions like defensive end could take priority, the Chiefs would be foolish not to at least consider a true difference-maker like Love.
There is certainly some logic to the idea that taking more premium positions with a top-ten pick and then drafting a running back in the second or third round could give you better odds of hitting on a starter at multiple positions. After all, top-ten pass rushers typically hit at a higher rate than second-round edge rushers, while early second-round running backs are still typically pretty safe picks. However, recent history says that drafting a star running back in the top 12 picks can be a highly productive move.
The case for the Chiefs drafting a running back early in the NFL draft
In order to even consider drafting a running back in the top 10–12 picks of the draft, there has to be a truly elite prospect on the board. Reaching for a running back that early would be incredibly foolish. What we're talking about here are special running backs who are universally viewed as top-10 talents. Thankfully for the Chiefs (if they decide to go that route), Jeremiyah Love fits that description.
While the top-10 draft picks are frequently where some of the league's top talents are drafted, there are also plenty of draft busts taken that early. Top prospects at premium positions like quarterback, pass rusher, or offensive tackle can still flop on a regular basis. However, over the last 10 years, the running backs drafted in the top 12 picks have been about as safe of picks as you will find.
Here is the list of running backs taken in the top 12 picks over the past 10 draft classes:
- Ashton Jeanty - No. 6 - Las Vegas Raiders - 2025
- Bijan Robinson - No. 8 - Atlanta Falcons - 2023
- Jahmyr Gibbs - No. 12 - Detroit Lions - 2023
- Saquon Barkley - No. 2 - New York Giants - 2018
- Leonard Fournette - No. 4 - Jacksonville Jaguars - 2017
- Christian McCaffrey - No. 8 - Carolina Panthers - 2017
- Ezekiel Elliott - No. 4 - Dallas Cowboys - 2016
That’s seven running backs taken in the top 12 picks over the past 10 drafts. Of those seven, only one can even be argued to be a bust, and that is Leonard Fournette—and he still rushed for over 1,000 yards twice in Jacksonville and had over 40 career touchdowns.
Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley are widely viewed as the best running backs of the past decade. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs are both young centerpieces of their teams’ offenses that those franchises are attempting to build around. Ashton Jeanty flashed as a rookie on the worst team in the NFL, and Ezekiel Elliott ended his time in Dallas as the franchise’s third-leading rusher behind only Emmitt Smith and Tony Dorsett.
I looked over every season these seven running backs played for the teams that drafted them. There were two seasons that were basically completely lost to injury (one by Saquon and one by McCaffrey). After removing those two seasons, these seven players have combined to play 26 seasons for the teams that drafted them. In those 26 seasons, these were the average numbers put up:
- 1,072 rushing yards
- 8.23 rushing TDs
- 57.5 receptions
- 453.23 receiving yards
- 2.54 receiving TDs
So, over 26 seasons, these seven running backs have averaged over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 10.77 touchdowns per season. The Chiefs have had exactly one season of that level of running back production in the last 12 years, and that was Kareem Hunt's rookie season in 2017 (which was nine years ago).
The other significant thing to note is that typically the backs who are viewed as top-10 talents are partially viewed that way because they can be weapons in both the rushing and passing games. The fact that the average number of receptions by these seven backs over 26 seasons is 57.5 is definitely worth noting.
While Notre Dame didn’t throw to Love a lot, he did average about two receptions per game over his two years as a starter and flashed the ability to be more than a checkdown target. Love has the ability to line up in the slot and run routes. Proving himself in pass protection would be the real key to Andy Reid trusting him to consistently stay on the field on passing downs.
The Chiefs shouldn’t get their hearts set on drafting Love because he could easily be off the board before they pick. However, if he is on the board (and especially if the top pass rushers have gone early), the Chiefs should strongly consider taking a true difference-maker at running back. Recent history says that it is a safe bet that a premier running back prospect like Love will produce in the NFL.