Some of us in Chiefs Kingdom are still somewhat shocked from the results of the '25 season. That Kansas City could fall so far from their position as preseason Super Bowl favorites to third place in the AFC West is appalling, even though, after the fact, it's become logical when tracing the team's roster failures, execution concerns, and questionable coaching decisions.
Still, a nine-game skid from one season to the next—that would be the steep fall from grace of being 15-2 in '24 to a 6-11 record in '25—will rattle a man. Having Patrick Mahomes under center creates a certain floor of expectations that things won't ever completely fall apart. It's a safety net for the acrobats at work high above us all. Sure, they may lose their balance, but no one's gonna get hurt or anything. Right?
What if things somehow get worse? That's what Adam Schein thinks will happen to the Chiefs in 2026. He's pegged the Chiefs as the worst team in the AFC West for the coming season and he's got his reasons.
"I think there's a real shot that the Chiefs finish in last place in the AFC West, and that's okay." @AdamSchein likes the Kenneth Walker move, but says 2027 is more realistic than 2026 if they want to compete for the Lombardi Trophy ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/BABo2exaDi
— Mad Dog Sports Radio (@MadDogRadio) March 10, 2026
There are two ways to take someone like this. You can either ignore him and move on, chalking it up o someone who gets paid to draw your attention for a living. That's the right approach most of the time, and perhaps it is here, but Schein didn't just kick the Chiefs when they're down and move on. That brings us to the second approach, which is to listen and try to sift out something substantive within the noise.
One NFL talking head has a silly thought: that the Chiefs will slide even further in the AFC West in '26
First, let's let Schein's words stand on their own for a minute. Here's how he starts:
"I think if you’re a Chiefs fan, you kinda need to recalibrate everything. And I will never, ever, ever minimize here, when it’s all said and done, the expectations for a team like Kansas City. You have Mahomes. You have Kelce. You have Andy Reid. You have, of course, Chris Jones. You have Spags. Those guys have been there, won that."
"But this defensive backfield is deplorable. They don’t have any players. They don’t have any dudes. Raiders got better. Broncos are obviously the Broncos and they’re well-coached. I think the Chargers are going to be the team to beat. Remember, they signed the Washington center [Tyler Biadasz], plus they’re gonna get [John] Alt back. They’re gonna get [Rashawn] Slater back. I really think that this team is going to be ready to rock and roll."
Schein is right here on a number of levels. He admits the Chiefs have some all-time great pieces in place and gives them credit—at least partial credit. He's also correct that the secondary is more like second-scary at this point. (That was stupid. I'm sorry.) Jaylen Watson is gone. Trent McDuffie was dealt. Bryan Cook is a Bengal. Alohi Gilman is a nice addition, but corner in particular is razor-thin and that was the unit doing the heavy defensive lifting last year.
Beyond that, Schein's also right about the competitive nature of the AFC West—at least, not the Raiders. We're not sure why he thinks anything of Vegas—and this is where he loses credibility—but the Chargers were already good while suffering through injuries. They and the Broncos are well-coached and have competitive rosters that finished higher than K.C. a year ago. It makes sense that he'd pick them once again.
"Listen, I think there’s a shot here that the Chiefs finish in last place. I’m giving you the heads up so you can wrap your brain around it. I think there is a real shot, and Mahomes is probably not going to be ready to start the season, that the Kansas City Chiefs finish in last place. And that’s okay. They have the championships. They have the Lombardis. They have the Super Bowl appearances."
We're trying to stick with Schein as much as we can, but to call the Chiefs a last-place team behind the Raiders? C'mon. That only happens if Kelce hits the wall and Brett Veach decides to ride-or-die with Kevin Knowles as a 700-snap player or something. Maybe Mahomes hits a setback in his rehab and doesn't return until Thanksgiving. Basically, you need something serious to go wrong, something no one can predict, for that to even become a possibility. Schein finishes his thoughts here:
"I think Brett Veach kind of told you what he thought of the roster when he didn’t make the Breece Hall trade and give up a third-round pick last year. Walker is great for stability and everything, to me, for Kansas City, and they have the infrastructure to do it, is about being in position to be back in that hunt for Lombardis in 2027."
Here's where things get the most interesting, because there's a corner of Chiefs Kingdom, at least on social media, who believe this is actually what should happen. That, with the nature of some of the long-term contracts still on the books and with Mahomes' injury, the Chiefs would be wise to simply let this year be a transition season where they try to retool for the second half of Mahomes' career.
But none of this is true. None of it at all. It's nonsense. Travis Kelce doesn't return to finish in last place. Patrick Mahomes will never be the quarterback of a last-place team. The additions already made to bolster running back and the defensive interior—the lowest points on the roster a year ago—will keep the team from falling into last place. The acumen of Andy Reid and his staff, contrary to emerging belief, will never let the Chiefs fall even further.
The Chiefs' roster has its issues, to be sure, but the idea that they're so far behind the other contenders that they need to completely recoil from contention in order to recover for a run in 2027 and beyond is ridiculous. As much credit as Schein says he's giving, he misses the greater point that the Chiefs had to have everything go wrong in order to even fall into third place. That's not going to happen again.