Any attempts to evaluate an NFL roster in March must come with a giant asterisk, an acknowledgement that every team is a work-in-progress and that the whole cannot be understood or appreciated. Free agency is but one way franchises can try to improve themselves, and a signing six months before the season might not mean anything by September.
That's important to understand, especially for the Kansas City Chiefs at this point early in free agency.
Still, it's not as if the Chiefs haven't already begun to reveal their cards, so to speak, as it relates to their offseason vision for the team. And on the offensive side, it's a bit startling to see the steps taken since a devastating loss in Super Bowl LIX.
The Chiefs offense has been on a downward trajectory for the last two seasons, and even the casual fan using the ol' eye test would tell you that much. Steve Spagnuolo's defense has been doing the heavy lifting all too often, while Patrick Mahomes has often looked frustrated trying to lead a unit that's far more stagnant—perhaps average is the best term—than Chiefs Kingdom is used to.
When measuring the last two years versus the previous two, the Chiefs are averaging basically one touchdown less per game. The Chiefs averaged 22.6 points/game in '24. up slightly from 21.8 points in 2023. However, the team averaged 28.7 points from 2021 to 22, and all of this is a precipitous drop from the 35 points averaged by Mahomes and company in his debut season in 2018.
Longing for the early days is a fool's errand, by the way, since Mahomes' skill set has singlehandedly changed the way NFL defenses play the game. But it is realistic to go back to 2021 and 2022 and ask why the Chiefs aren't at least aren't that effective.
Chiefs were ready for a roster reinvention, right?
When looking beyond the figures, it's obvious the Chiefs have grown older and slower on offense. Key components are aging, and injuries have limited the offense even further—specifically taking out wide receiver Rashee Rice and running back Isiah Pacheco last season for long stretches. Key additions have often failed to work out (Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore) or showed up limited (DeAndre Hopkins). Signing Hollywood Brown only to lose him for the entire season is also just bad luck.
Heading into 2025, it felt like a wholesale reinvention of the Chiefs' offensive components was on the table. It even felt likely, for a number of reasons:
- The backfield had one player committed to 2025 in Pacheco, and he was coming into a contract year as an oft-injured player.
- The Chiefs had five wide receivers ready to hit free agency from the active roster: Hopkins, Mecole Hardman, Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Justin Watson.
- Travis Kelce was considering whether or not he even wanted to keep playing the game following Super Bowl 59.
It felt like 2025 might yield an entirely different approach on offense, fueled by a radical reconstruction effort to get younger, faster, and more reliable in the wake of so many scheduled departures and significant questions.
Not so fast on the reconstruction effort
As it turns out, the Chiefs weren't as ready to turn the page after all—at least at this point in the offseason (which takes us back to admitting that nothing is finished just yet).
Kelce decided to return for another season and declared his intentions to be in better shape than ever. That's also easier said than done when a player has given so much of himself to a team already and is coming into his 13th NFL season in his mid-thirties. Not to doubt a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but Father Time comes for us all, like it or not.
The Chiefs were vulnerable in the backfield with only Pacheco returning, so to the mix, they've added Elijah Mitchell, who has averaged 80 total snaps per season since Pacheco was a senior in college (2021) due to numerous ailments and injuries. The Chiefs also brought back Kareem Hunt, who is now 30 years old, to compete as well.
At wide receiver, Hopkins and Watson have left for new homes in free agency (with the Ravens and Texans, repectively), but Brown and Smith-Schuster have been brought back—bringing with them the same reliability concerns the team had last season. Add in Rashee Rice's injury and looming suspension at the position and things look even more tenuous at receiver for 2025. (And perhaps some would want to add the Xavier Worthy drama, but charges were dropped and that feels unfair to place on him at this point.)
The all-important disclaimer(s)
It's important here to acknowledge a few things (some of which have already been brought up).
First, the Chiefs will continue to make adjustments and additions this offseason. The NFL Draft will yield a whole new crop of rookies to make the roster younger, and it's there that the wide receiver corps and the backfield should find some youthful zeal and a higher ceiling.
Second, some of these deals are rather cheap, so no one should assume Kareem Hunt, for instance, will be the lead back for 2025 at this point. His deal is so inexpensive that he's not even guaranteed a roster spot, and his efforts for the team last season made inviting him back a nice overture for the veteran.
It's also possible that some players who were injured last year will be healthy for the Chiefs. An available Hollywood Brown is a significant weapon for the Chiefs and, on paper, gives the offense a dynamic trio alongside Worthy and Rice. No one can know how many games Pacheco will play or how Rice will return or if Mitchell can stay on the field.
But here's what remains true when taking a mid-March snapshot of the Chiefs' offseason: If the concerns about the Chiefs were that the offense looked slow, old, and unreliable in 2024, it's hard not to feel that same way so far in the '25 offseason. It's not being alarmist to express concern, even as fans should also hold out hope that youth and depth are also on the way.
manual