Assumptions are dangerous. Many times people find themselves going as far as damaging their own mental health because they can't stop making them. "Look at the nerve of this guy to cut me off in traffic. He must think he's better than everyone!" Sure, he might. But he also may have a wife who is in labor in his passenger seat.
Assuming the intentions of others is not too dissimilar to assuming you know how a football season is going to end. The Kansas City Chiefs have looked pedestrian at times, so it's safe to assume that this is where the road ends. Right? Sure, it might.
For 12 weeks now, Chiesf fans have sat in anticipation of the team's first nuclear meltdown. It's coming, right? As bad as they've looked at times, it's inevitable. Well, if you rely on X (formerly Twitter, and this is the first time I've publicly acknowledged this) as your primary source of information, you would know that the Chiefs' loss to the Buffalo Bills a couple of weeks ago followed by narrow escapes against the lowly Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders signify what will ultimately be a disappointing end to the 2024 season. This team certainly doesn't have the it factor to bring home a third straight Super Bowl title. Not a chance.
The sky could really be falling in Chiefs Kingdom in numerous ways based on how the team has played thus far this season—no other team in the NFL has played as many one-score games as the Chiefs—but the team still sits atop the AFC after losing to a worthy opponent on their home turf. They then went to Charlotte and let Bryce Young take them to overtime. Five days later, they were a botched snap away from losing to Las Vegas (assuming Daniel Carlson wouldn't miss his fourth field goal of the game). The problem for the Chiefs is not that other teams have caught up to them, although some would argue that. The problem is the attempts to dethrone the Chiefs are coming from every angle.
You're getting Super Bowl-level efforts from perennially high drafting franchises because, well, the Chiefs are their Super Bowl. They don't get to play in the real one, so attempting to take out the NFL's juggernaut is the grandest stage they will see. There have been "lackluster" efforts by the Chiefs that are Herculean efforts by their opposition. Can you sit there with a straight face and tell me that you think the Bengals, Chargers, and Commanders (all teams who have blown out the Panthers) get the same bulletin board treatment as the Chiefs? Do you think those games are circled on the schedule when it drops in May?
These massive pushes from other teams to grab a season-defining win have defined the Chiefs' season in a way. The Chiefs have played more one-score games than any other team this year, and if you take the results of those games and flip them—a practice that is rooted in sheer projection as opposed to logic or reality—the team would be (Gasp!) 2-10. Taking every one score affair and counting it against the Chiefs isn't fair, but you could in theory take 2 of them—Week 10 against Denver and this past week's game against the Raiders—and feasibly have a world where the Chiefs are 9-3 with two divisional losses. I do feel like I need to remind you, though, that those games count as wins, no matter how sloppy or "lucky" they have been.
The Chiefs have gotten every opponent's best shot thus far in 2024. The target on the back of a 2-time defending Super Bowl champion is the biggest target that can be worn in professional football. The causes for concern are legitimate: the Chiefs have had massive issues at offensive tackle and the secondary has not been the same since Jaylen Watson went down for the season. Some problems—the wide receiver corps in particular—seem to have taken care of themselves, while others still linger. But let's look at some of the issues we've seen this year with the Chiefs and break down what may be a projection by the fan base vs. actual reality.
Has Mahomes been pressured a lot in 2024? The short answer is "yes, sort of". Would you believe me if I told you that Mahomes' pressure rate in 2024 was the third lowest of his career? The only two seasons in which his pressure percentage was lower than 2024 were his 2022 MVP season, and the Chiefs' first Super Bowl run in 2019. His first MVP season in 2018 saw him pressured on 33.8% of his dropbacks, a whopping 13.1% more than this season's 20.7% thus far.
Give credit where credit is due, Mahomes has matured as a pocket passer and has become increasingly aware of his surroundings, and the Chiefs' interior offensive line is universally considered the best in the business. We've seen a lot more vertical movement from Mahomes in the pocket this year, and it has been highlighted numerous times that he is the best in the world at reading the openings in a defensive line and using his legs at the right time. Chiefs tackles Wanya Morris and Jawaan Taylor are still under considerable fire, though.
The Morris problem is a bigger, more organizational issue. Look at the tackles that the Brett Veach regime have drafted in Kansas City. Lucas Niang and Darian Kinnard are both no longer Chiefs. Morris is much maligned but is still somehow a better option than rookie Kingsley Suamataia. An assessment and selection problem in the front office isn't just isolated to the wide receiver position. The hope amongst all Chiefs fans is that DJ Humphries insulates the team from these shortcomings for the remainder of the 2024 season.
But that's not all. What about Jawaan Taylor? It seems like Taylor has more penalties than any other player in the league again, right? Surely if the Chiefs had a tackle like Buffalo's Dion Dawkins or Spencer Brown, Houston's Laremy Tunsil, Dallas' Tyler Guyton, Denver's Garrett Bolles, or Baltimore's Ronnie Stanley they'd be in a much better position, right? Well, all of those players except for Stanley (who has the same amount of penalties, 9, as Taylor) have more penalties against them in 2024 than Taylor. Taylor is in the top quartile of offensive tackles in the league in pass block win rate at 92% and is a key component to the Chiefs rushing attack. The issues at offensive tackle are real, but they are overstated considering the team is actively attempting to remedy them rather than living with what they've got.
The Chiefs' defense in recent weeks has looked like a different unit than they did in the first half of 2024. In the first 6 games of the season, the Chiefs' stingy defense was allowing opponents just 17.2 points per game. In the last 6 games? 22 points per game. A dangerous jump when you consider how many one-score affairs the team finds itself in. The offense's production has remained strong at around 24 points per game, but the defense is killing the team as opposed to the past couple of years, right?
Wrong. Both the defensive struggles and the one-score games are nothing new. Look at last year's Chiefs as a not-so-distant reference point. Through 12 weeks the Chiefs defense sported a +6 points allowed differential from the first 6 games to the second 6. How many of the team's first 12 games were one-score games in 2023? 9 last year compared to 10 this year. What was the team's record in 2023 after 12 weeks? 8-4. They would fall to 9-6 before winning their final two games and, well, you know the rest.
Do not try to reinvent the wheel with the 2024 Chiefs, because we have seen this movie before. There are, without question, causes for concern. There have been on every single Chiefs Super Bowl team. This team has wins over 5 teams that, if the season ended today, would be in the playoffs. They will have the opportunity before it is all said and done in 2024 to add 4 more of those wins to their 2024 resume. They can clinch the division next week at home against the Chargers, a division title that will inevitably be their 9th straight.
Don't write this team off yet. After Friday's game, there was a lot of negative sentiment. A lot of people, including me, wondered if this team has the "it" factor that iterations of Chiefs teams in the past have had. Don't anticipate the demise before you actually see it happen. We are more than likely a lot further away from the end of the Chiefs dynasty than we think after Week 13.