Why Patrick Mahomes cap hit won’t be an obstacle for KC Chiefs

How Patrick Mahomes’ Contract Stacks Up

If you’re comfortable with the logic, then the idea is that beginning in 2022 and continuing through 2031 (excluding the decline in 2021 from COVID’s impact on ticket sales), the NFL salary cap will grow at a rate of 7.23 percent with it’s base number being the cap number in 2020 ($198,200,000).

This growth rate of 7.23 percent would play out in 2022 with a cap of $212,530,000 ($198.2 x 1.0723) and continue to $398,400,000 in 2031. With this information, the next step is to take Patrick Mahomes’ cap hit and evaluate that percentage over the life of the contract. The numbers are shown below:

There you have it, but what do these numbers really even mean? Sure, maybe these percentages aren’t as scary as the raw dollar numbers but they’re still pretty hefty. Especially starting in 2023, when Mahomes’ percentage balloons to nearly 19 percent of the cap.

Here’s the major point, although I’m confident there will be plenty of anti-Chiefs readers and commenters who attempt to downplay this. Do you happen to know what Tom Brady’s salary cap percentage was for the 2020 season, as the quarterback of the team that just won the Super Bowl? 14.32 percent, or $28.375 million over the $198.2 million salary cap. So what does that tell you?

Based off the assumption that the cap will simply grow along the lines it has over the last 27 years, and the assumption that Mahomes will receive his base salary and 100 percent of his incentive bonuses (including an annual MVP bonus), he will fall below that percentage in five of his remaining 11 seasons.

This doesn’t include the flexibility the team has to restructure Mahomes’ contract, pushing percentages of his salary into future years by converting it into a bonus, or the ability for teams to roll over unused cap from one year to the next. It’s possible he falls under that percentage in every year except two or three.

It also doesn’t consider that we’re entering a new era of quarterback money. In a few years EVERY team with a top-tier quarterback will be paying the absurd market rate. If your contention is that no team with a top-tier quarterback will win a Super Bowl, I guess everyone is entitled to their opinion no matter how crazy it is. The truth is, there’s a good chance Patrick Mahomes is a bargain in a few seasons.

Even if you utilize this framework and adjust for a wide range of COVID revenue scenarios, the most extreme of which reduces each year’s cap by $5 million a year over the current CBA as a way to spread out losses from COVID, Mahomes still falls under this threshold four out of the 11 seasons without any cap flexibility practices used at all.

There will undoubtedly be those who say, “Oh yeah! Well, it’s Tom Brady! Nobody else can do what he’s done!” The truth is, if you actually believe that 43 year-old Tom Brady is a better player than Mahomes, you probably found it difficult to follow the aforementioned logic anyway. Brady has had a great career, maybe the best in sports history, but there was wide agreement this season that the Buccaneers had one of the most talented rosters in the league.

As an aside, one of the saddest things about the Super Bowl loss wasn’t the loss itself but the sheer brilliance of Mahomes. It will be forgotten by most, and downplayed by others, but his ability to make rushers miss and fire off dimes was incredible. If it weren’t for the dropped passes, the Super Bowl is at least far closer, and the Chiefs might even win the game (despite some other extraneous and ridiculous factors).

Here’s the rub: If a 43 year-old Brady can win a Super Bowl at 14.32 percent of his team’s salary cap, then there are a number of quarterbacks talented enough to do it at the same amount or even higher. Given Mahomes might be the greatest talent we’ve ever seen at the position, given the salary implications outlined in this piece, there’s a good chance the Chiefs are competing for Super Bowls for the majority of his contract.