Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs fell just short in Super Bowl LV against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It was a tough game for Chiefs fans, as the team didn’t play anywhere close to their best. Still, there’s great hope for the future as the franchise happens to have the most talented quarterback in the NFL playing for them for a very long time.
“Wait just a minute!” says the average anti-Chiefs fan. “Once Patrick Mahomes starts making the money he’s owed, the Chiefs won’t be able to afford anybody to help around him. I hope you enjoyed your one Super Bowl victory, because that’s all you’re going to get!”
What this person is referring to is the heretofore unseen numbers that make up Mahomes’ record-setting contract extension. For instance, in the year 2027, the Chiefs quarterback is scheduled to make a jaw dropping $59,950,000.
That is some serious coin, but is it something to be overly concerned about? The truth is, when evaluating a player’s cap hit, the most important aspect is not the raw number of dollars but the percentage of the salary cap those dollars eat up. To evaluate that, we first have to estimate what the NFL salary cap will be throughout Patrick Mahomes’ contract.
NFL salary cap projections through 2031
In order to do this we simply need to take the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the NFL salary cap since its inception and apply that going forward through the end of Patrick Mahomes’ contract. I’ve listed the applicable tables below. I’ve included both growth rate per year and CAGR, though CAGR is what we’ll focus on:
There’s one caveat to bring attention to here. The CAGR factors in every season outside of the uncapped season in 2010, as there was no growth or decrease in the salary cap that season. With this caveat it calculates using 25 years of growth instead of 26 years (Salary cap was instituted 27 years ago, but could only “grow” 26 of those).
Undoubtedly, the naysayers will see this and rush to the judgement. “There’s no way the cap will grow like this,” they’ll say. “Your formula isn’t even right!”
To them I would say, yes my formula removes a year which could technically be equal to zero. As you’ll see, I also didn’t factor in the massive growth we’ll likely see from new television deals in the coming years. Some rumors have the revenue from these deals doubling which could push the cap significantly higher than my estimation in the coming years. Other factors such as a 17th game and additional playoff teams have massive new revenue implications as well.