Shane Ray could be perfect free agent target for Kansas City Chiefs

Shane Ray could be a perfect fit for the Kansas City Chiefs as a free agent addition this offseason for a number of reasons.

For the last three games, things had gotten so bad for Shane Ray in Denver that the Broncos paid him to sit as a healthy scratch in each of the last three games.

Forget the idea that you can never have enough pass rushers. Forget the first round pedigree. Given that Ray was scheduled for unrestricted free agency this spring, it was clear John Elway and the Broncos had already decided there was absolutely no interest in re-upping this relationship. Ray was basically given his walking papers with nearly a month left of the regular season.

For Ray, it was a very disappointing end to a chapter of his career that’s never lived up to the draft billing and buzz with which it all started.

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Ray entered the NFL as the 23rd overall selection in the 2015 NFL Draft. As a pass rusher at Missouri, Ray had put up big time numbers during a breakout junior season that helped the Tigers establish themselves in the SEC. Ray averaged a sack per game at college’s highest level and ended his junior season with 22.5 tackles for loss and 14.5 total sacks. Ray was rewarded with the SEC Defensive Player of the Year Award, a unanimous All-American vote and ascending draft status that took him to Denver.

It took Ray some time at the pro level to assert himself, but the flashes were there of the kind of pass rushing talent that dominated at Mizzou. Ray leaped from 4 sacks during his rookie year in rotational duty to 8 sacks in 2016—a year that included his first 8 pro starts. Unfortunately, a wrist injury involving a torn ligament plagued him in the summer heading into his third season and he’s never been the same since. Multiple surgeries and IR stints have limited him to 7 starts in the last two years.

By the time Ray worked his way back to health, the Broncos had decided to move on. It helps that Bradley Chubb fell in their lap with the No. 5 overall pick in last year’s draft, and the team also has rotational help with Shaq Barrett. Given Ray’s injury history and looming free agency, the Broncos turned the corner early and told Ray to sit.

FIT WITH THE CHIEFS

It’s no secret that Ray himself is a Chiefs fan, having grown up in the area. Better yet, he’s even tattooed himself with the logo of the Chiefs along with other local sports teams. As a local product, the Chiefs hold a bit more leverage—even if it’s just emotional—than any other team when it comes to Ray and that can work to the franchise’s advantage.

It makes zero sense for Ray to sign anything but a one-year deal with the intention to remind the NFL’s buyers that he was once a desired pass rusher. A multi-year contract at this point wouldn’t even likely interest anyone on the team side of things given his injury history. Instead, Ray is likely to bet on himself, and he gave as much away in a recent quote to the Denver Post.

"“I will be a starter the next place that I go,” Ray said. “That’s the kind of player that I am and that’s the type of player that I’ve been. Wherever I go next, they’ll want me and it will be time for me to do what I could have been doing. And I’ll be healthy. That will be a difference, too.”"

The Chiefs current pass rushing picture can look crowded heading into 2019, but it’s actually more muddied at this point—as in unclear.

Dee Ford is headed toward unrestricted free agency but seems a perfect candidate for a franchise tag given his incredibly productive year. Teams can ill afford to develop pass rushing talent at that level only to watch him walk away in his prime.
Justin Houston is around and expensive, which makes things interesting as Brett Veach figures out what to do with his mammoth contract. He was the single highest paid non-quarterback in the entire NFL in 2018 and he costs $1M more against the cap in 2019.
Tanoh Kpassagnon was drafted as a question mark, a developmental pass rusher who needed to make significant leaps toward being productive at the pro level. Two years later, he remains as much of a question mark as ever.
Breeland Speaks, last year’s second rounder, was the biggest head-scratcher of all Chiefs rookies, a man with obvious talent, work ethic, strength and motor who seemed out of position (or his element) based on what coaches were asking him to do.

The Chiefs are fortunate to know they have Chris Jones as an interior pass rusher along the defensive front, but the team is also likely to lose Allen Bailey in free agency after a career season. It’s within the realm of possibility that Ford could leave, Houston could restructure, Kpassagnon could never develop and Speaks could shift up front.

All that to say that, in spite of the presence of several names here, there is room for one someone to step in. In fact, it would be a welcome sight.

The Chiefs tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers in total sacks in 2018 but all of that could easily fall apart next season. Ford’s health history is frustrating, especially with his back, and Houston could say the same. If Bailey leaves, the Chiefs could look woefully thin up front.

Ray could provide a rotational body for the Chiefs’ pass rush and even start if Ford were allowed to walk or any injury concerns come along. Which given the rigors of a regular season, attrition is bound to happen. It’s hard to imagine Ray signing and not being given the chance to start at least a handful of games.

Remember this is a team still employing Frank Zombo for much of the season even after releasing him before the year began. There’s room for Ray here in the midst of everyone else and the opportunity is there for anyone motivated—a maxim that also applies to Speaks and/or Kpassagnon.

HOW MUCH FOR RAY?

Here’s where the news isn’t so wonderful for Ray. Proven pass rushers get paid in the NFL. Unreliable pass rushers, however, can be forced to take very team-friendly deals. No matter what sort of buzz accompanied Ray into the National Football League, it’s long gone by now given that Ray has 2 sacks in his last 19 games—despite what excuses might linger about playing time or injuries.

Remember that capable pass rushers like Junior Galette sat all of last season despite being vocal about wanting to play again. Veterans like Pernell McPhee and Erik Walden who have shown themselves to still be productive veterans settled for one-year deals at $1.8M and $1.015M respectively. (The latter has 15 sacks over the last 2 years.)

Perhaps the best comparison for Ray’s situation is Jeremiah Attaochu. Remember Attaochu came into the NFL just one year before Ray, as the second round choice of the San Diego Chargers. He’s the all-time career leader in sacks at Georgia Tech and earned All-American status his final year before entering the NFL.

Attaochu had 2 sacks during his first season and then jumped to 6 sacks the next year as playing time increased and he was given his first career starts. In his third year, he suffered a broken foot and, even after returning, was never the same. The Chargers moved on to Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram and other rotational players entered the picture.

Last offseason the New York Jets thought they’d take a flyer on a former pass rushing prospect who came into the NFL with very good collegiate production and All-American status. The cost for Attaochu just several months ago was $1.365 million for one year.

FINAL PREDICTION/IDEA

If the Chiefs were interested in Shane Ray, there is a permanently inked-on reason to believe Ray would like to play for his hometown franchise. Given that’s the case, it’s hard to believe that any other team in the NFL is going to significantly outbid K.C. for the rights to the type of pass rusher already readily available on the market in other veterans or bounceback candidates.

That said, if the Chiefs floated something like a 1-year offer of $900K to $1M with incentives for being active on game day that could add up to half of that total again, it could work for all sides. Ray could pocket $1.5 million to show himself healthy, take advantage of being on a Super Bowl contender, enjoy being at home and provide the Chiefs with a motivated pass rusher who is desperate to showcase what he can do.

Next. Andy Reid has a good shot at Coach of the Year. dark

Even better, after another year, both Ford and Houston could be gone and Ray could be sitting in his hometown already on the roster with much bigger opportunities ahead of him—both financially and on the field.

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