Broncos vs. Chiefs: Breaking down Vegas odds, betting lines for NFL’s Week 8

The Kansas City Chiefs come into Sunday’s matchup against their division rival Denver Broncos as heavy 9.5 point favorites.

Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos are coming off blowout 45-10 victories last week. The Chiefs beat the Cincinnati Bengals while the Broncos beat the Arizona Cardinals. Despite both teams looking great last week, the Chiefs are 9.5 point favorites going into Sunday’s game in Arrowhead according to Oddshark.com.

The Broncos may have won big last week, but it was over one of the worst three teams in the league. Prior to that game, the Broncos had lost four games in a row that included the Monday night loss to the Chiefs and being dominated by the New York Jets. Their inconsistency is glaring as the same team who got killed by the Jets, played the undefeated Los Angeles Rams to a tough three-point loss.

It is clear that Case Keenum is not the long-term answer Broncos general manager John Elway thought he could be when he signed him to a two-year, $36 million contract. Even worse, they no longer have a high talent backup as Chad Kelly was cut following his arrest for criminal trespassing on October 23rd. The party Kelly was at prior to his trespassing was a costume party at the house of Von Miller. The entire party has been a distraction the Broncos did not need the week they prepare to face the best team in the AFC.

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To me the distraction, while unwanted, has little effect on how this game will go. The Broncos haven’t beaten the Chiefs since September 17, 2015. During that time the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos six straight times, including two with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. This trend will continue this Sunday as the Chiefs should make it seven wins in a row over the Broncos.

The Broncos do not have the firepower on offense nor defense to keep up with Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. In the best possible scenario of having the Chiefs in Denver in primetime with that hostile crowd and down 10 points in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs still scored 27 points and won. That is the smallest number the Chiefs have put on the scoreboard this season, but I don’t see that low of a total being repeated in Arrowhead.

Kareem Hunt is coming off back to back dominating performances averaging 163 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns in that two-game span. On the ground, he’s averaging 6.64 yards per rush while averaging 16 yards a catch through the air. Teams haven’t been allowing Hunt to get those yards because they are slowing down our pass, during that same two-game span Mahomes averaged 355 yards and four touchdowns through the air. The Chiefs offense is clicking on all cylinders right now and it’s hard to imagine any defense in the NFL holding them under 30 again this season.

The hard question for this game isn’t who will win, it’s by how much will the Chiefs win? The answer to that question lies with the Chiefs defense. In three games inside the friendly confines of Arrowhead stadium this season, the Chiefs defense is only giving up 17 points per game. That is far superior to their road numbers where they are giving up nearly 33 points per game.

If the defense can continue to play at this same level at home than this game will be a blowout. If the defense fails to show up than the Chiefs will still win, but it will be a situation where the score is closer than it should be. With a 9.5 point spread, the defense will need to show up if the Chiefs are to cover.

In years past the Chiefs have been notorious for losing let down games like this. Coming off back-to-back primetime games against good teams to now playing an average team at noon screams let down. That was before Mahomes though and I believe that Mahomes is let down proof. He will make big plays even if Andy Reid tries to get conservative to just run out the clock or if the defense doesn’t respect the Broncos offense.

It’s the Mahomes factor combined with a crowd that is back to their 90s glory, that makes me believe this game will be a blowout. The Broncos do not have the ability to keep up with the Chiefs and they know it. They will abandon the run far too early and the Chiefs defense will be able to control the few weapons the Broncos offense has.

This game screams to me to end 38-17 with Chad Henne possibly getting a drive in the fourth quarter as the Chiefs call off the dogs. The over/under for the game is 53.5 points and my score has that over easy. The Chiefs defense ruined my over pick last week, but this week the number is down and the over will hit again. I’m now 12-2 in my picks through seven weeks and I’m confident I will be improving that to 14-2 this week. Come on Missouri, get those sports betting laws passed already!