After dismantling the Pittsburgh Steelers and improving to 2-0 on the season, the Kansas City Chiefs are favored for the first time this season.
The Kansas City Chiefs come into their home opener against the San Francisco 49ers as favorites for the first time in the 2018 season. Betting lines at Oddshark.com have the Chiefs as 6.5 point favorites with an over/under of 56 total points.
Coming off their impressive victory over the Steelers last Sunday, the Chiefs have become the media darlings of the NFL. All the sports debate shows from Good Morning Football on the NFL Network too First Take on ESPN has been talking about the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes II.
The attention is so great that I’m surprised the Chiefs are only 6.5 point favorites against the 49ers. Mahomes is coming off a weekend that sent him soaring into the MVP conversation. The 49ers are coming in at 1-1 with losses to the Minnesota Vikings and a close win over the Detroit Lions. In other words, one team is the hottest team in the NFL and the other is an average team barely making highlight shows.
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Combine the media hype with the fact everyone knows this is the Chiefs home opener, and the electricity at Arrowhead will be off the charts. The public will likely be all over the Chiefs, which means the line may have started at 6.5, but by kickoff, I see the line being closer to 10.
Last week the oddsmakers were able to look back on multiple games of recent history to help handicap the Chiefs vs Steelers game. They do not have that luxury this weekend. The Chiefs and 49ers have only played each other twice in the last 10 years, the most recent meeting in 2014. The Chiefs did lose that last game in San Francisco 22-17, but that game is meaningless in terms of handicapping Sunday’s matchup.
With the history between the two teams going out the window, fans will have to rely on individual matchups to see how this game will play out. It is safe to say that those matchups favor the Chiefs in almost every scenario.
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The Chiefs offense has been unstoppable through the first two games of the season averaging 40 points a game. They will be going against a 49ers defense that is allowing 25 points a game to two offenses that do not have near the firepower of the Chiefs. Linebacker Reuben Foster will be making his season debut in this game which should give the 49ers a boost, but he’s bound to be rusty. Richard Sherman brings a veteran presence and attitude but he’s only one man against the Chiefs armory of Sammy Watkins, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce. While no one can ever expect to score 40 points in a game, I see no reason why the Chiefs shouldn’t easily put up 30 on Sunday.
Jimmy Garoppolo leads the 49ers offense into Arrowhead Stadium for the first time in his career as a starter. The stadium will be shaking like it hasn’t shaken in years. Garoppolo is walking into an atmosphere that has brought many a young starting quarterback to their knees—just ask Ryan Leaf.
The 49ers offense is a decent one despite only averaging 18 points a game this season. Their first game came against the Vikings who boast a top three defense and still managed 17 points. They followed that up by putting up a 30 spot against the Lions where Garoppolo threw for 206 yards and two touchdowns. Their running game is bad, so if they hope to keep up with the Chiefs offense they will have no choice but to the ball in Garoppolo’s hands and air it out all game.
This will play right into the Chiefs defense as the 49ers will become one-dimensional meaning the defense can sell out against the pass. Justin Houston and Dee Ford should be able to fly off the ball with no worries of the run game and Bob Sutton can stay in nickel or dime defense keeping the maximum number of pass defenders on the field.
There have been reports that Eric Berry could be back this week, and if he comes through that tunnel on the same day that Mahomes comes through as the starter for the first time, I feel sorry for the 49ers. Berry or not, this game will be a blowout and I would jump on the Chiefs at 6.5 points before it goes up. Esaven if it goes up I don’t think I’d even hesitate on the Chiefs until it hit 10.
The harder bet for this week is the over/under of 56. I see the Chiefs scoring 30 points easily, but I think the Chiefs defense has a great game, meaning the 49ers points will be limited. I would predict a score in the neighborhood of 30-17 Chiefs which would land in the under. If you think the Chiefs will go off for another 40 spot then I’d take the over, but the Chiefs could be playing prevent the entire second half. I would not play the over/under this week as it’s just too close to call, but if I had to choose I’d take the under.
If you don’t have tickets to the game on Sunday, then I suggest you buy them now because I have a feeling this is going to be one of those games people talk about for years to come.