Here we go again, watch out Chiefs or the Steelers will chew you up. But will the Chiefs let them? Find out in this week’s matchup analysis.
This weekend is the fifth meeting between Andy Reid and Mike Tomlin since Reid first became head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs currently trail the Pittsburgh Steelers 1-4 with their lone win coming against backup quarterback Landry Jones. Over their last two meetings, running back Le’Veon Bell was allowed to completely dominate the Chiefs to the tune of 349 yards and 1 TD on the ground.
Bell and other running backs thrashing the Chiefs pushed the front office to address an issue that has been ongoing for a couple of years. Xavier Williams, formerly a defensive tackle with the Arizona Cardinals, was brought in to help. Williams finished last season ranked 1st among nose tackles in run stop percentage.
However, Bell might not be participating in this weekend’s game due to a contract dispute that has now run into the season. Bell is holding out until further notice to protect himself from injury on a one year franchise tag deal. In his place could be second year man James Conner who had just 144 rushing yards in 2017.
Sunday’s game will be a big statement game for the Chiefs as an organization. The team went through major changes in the offseason, and it’s time to see if those changes paid off. So let’s get started, and find out what will be the key matchups of the game for the Kansas City Chiefs.
James Conner vs. Chiefs run defense
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As previously stated, Conner managed just 144 rushing yards in 2017. Just this last weekend in Cleveland, Conner managed to nearly match his previous years total with 135 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. He finished the game with 32 carries which ended the weekend #1 in the entire NFL.
Against the Los Angeles Chargers the Chiefs saw just 15 carries from lead back Melvin Gordon and 22 overall giving up 122 yards (22nd most in the league). Nose tackle Williams saw just 12 snaps in run defense, and made just one stop. Overall the Chargers run game had a good day, but due to the fact that the game was turning into a shootout, they were given limited opportunities.
So far the Chiefs run defense has not proven to be much improved from last season, but will get another chance to prove itself against the NFL’s newest rising star. After week 1 the Chiefs defensive line ranks 15th in yards give up to runners before contact (1.67). They will face off against the Steelers who rank 3rd in yards before contact allowed (2.24).
My prediction: James Conner, 28 rushes, 109 yards, 1 TD
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Kendall Fuller
Steelers wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster may just be the most talented #2 receiver in the entire NFL. He ended his rookie campaign in 2017 with 917 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns which ranked 22nd and T-19th respectively in the entire NFL. He’ll be facing the NFL’s top slot coverage defender from 2017 in Kendall Fuller of the Chiefs. Much like last week’s matchup it looks like Fuller will again be in the middle of one of the top corner and receiver battles of the season.
In Fuller’s first start with the Chiefs he saw 4 targets and gave up 3 receptions for just 26 yards for a 91.7 NFL QB rating (16th in the league). Juju saw 6 targets and caught 4 balls for 119 yards which was 2nd most in the NFL from the slot in Week 1.
Fuller didn’t give up a ton of yards, but he didn’t look like his dominant self from last season. He is playing in a new defensive scheme so there may still be some time for an adjustment. Berry is likely out again, at the time of writing this, which will make things even more difficult.
Chiefs may also try to matchup Fuller with Brown on the outside and assign Orlando Scandrick and Steven Nelson to cover Smith-Schuster from the slot. Fuller played just 6 snaps on the outside against the Chargers, but their best receiver was Keenan Allen who plays mostly in the slot. Fuller should see more time on the outside especially facing a stronger running team.
My prediction: Juju Smith-Schuster, 5 receptions, 60 yards receiving, 0 TD.
Tyreek Hill vs. Steelers corners
Boy, did Hill have himself a great start to the season. Hill finished with three total touchdowns and 169 yards receiving. The connection between Patrick Mahomes and Hill has been talked about since the day Mahomes was drafted back in 2017. A cannon arm to go along with a cheetah on the run, and they were both on full display.
Mahomes’ and Hill’s connection is already beginning to be compared to the likes of Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, Tom Brady and Wes Welker, Philip Rivers and Antonio Gatesd and the many other great quarterback and receiver connections.
This week he’ll be facing the other best slot corner in the league last year in 2016 UDFA Mike Hilton. By yards allowed per snap he was #1 in the NFL in the slot, and got off to an excellent start against the Cleveland Browns. Hilton allowed just 3 receptions on 7 targets for 59 yards with 2 pass blocks.
Other Steelers corners Artie Burns and Joe Haden also started off the season hot allowing just 56.3 and 75.7 NFL passer rating into their coverage. However, they were facing Tyrod Taylor who ended the week with the worst passing grade in the NFL. Now they’ll be up against the #4 highest rated passer in the NFL.
My prediction: Tyreek Hill, 5 receptions, 83 yards, 1 TD
Last week’s matchups against the Chargers:
Kareem Hunt:
My prediction: 100+ total yards and 2 touchdowns for Kareem Hunt
The result: 49 total yards, 0 TDs
Kendall Fuller:
My prediction: 4 receptions for 44 yards for Allen, 2 pass blocks and 1 interception for Fuller.
The result: 2 receptions for 31 yards for Allen, 0 pass blocks, 0 interceptions
Patrick Mahomes:
My prediction: 17/28, 60.7%, 227 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
The result: 15/27, 55.6%, 256 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
Thanks for reading! I really hope you enjoy this. If you have any suggestions for future matchups or other topics you’d like me to tackle. Hit me up over at dt.sports.now(at)gmail.com or over on twitter @DTSportsNow.