Despite an easy win against the favored Los Angeles Chargers in week one, the Kansas City Chiefs come into week 2 of the NFL season as underdogs yet again.
According to the early betting lines at Oddshark.com, the Chiefs will face off against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday as five-point underdogs. The over/under has been set at 53 points meaning the gambling public expects the Chiefs to lose in a shootout.
It’s not a surprise that the gambling public would be down on the Chiefs in this matchup as they know the history of this matchup as well as we do. The Chiefs are only 11-23 vs the Steelers all time and just 1-3 in the Andy Reid era. Those numbers are bad, but the gambling numbers are even worse as the Chiefs are 1-5 against the spread in the last six games in Pittsburgh.
While the Steelers own the Chiefs, their recent history is showing they aren’t the powerhouse they appear to be. The Steelers are 1-7 against the spread in the last eight games and 0-5 against the spread at home in that time. This points to the Steelers playing in a lot of close games that maybe they win, but it’s by less than one score meaning they are letting the opposing team stay in the game.
Recent history for the Chiefs, however, show they are one of the stronger teams in the league against the spread. The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games while they are 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 road games. This equates to the Chiefs play better than expected as they cover the spread by winning by more points than expected or by keeping a loss closer than expected.
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The numbers overall for both teams are in contrast to the numbers when they play each other so we’ll need to go deeper into the matchup and see what the two teams bring to the table. The Chiefs are bringing an unknown commodity to matchup with a lot of recent history when Patrick Mahomes II starts the game. The offense is the same, but going from Alex Smith to Mahomes is a big change that will be hard for gamblers to figure out. He played good in his first game, but playing the Chargers is not the same as facing the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
The known is the Chiefs will bring to town the hottest weapon in the NFL in Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. As hot as Hill is right now the Steelers will have to double team him on every play meaning Kelce or Sammy Watkins will be one on one every play and Hunt should have room to run. I expect the offense to have another solid performance this week, but I wouldn’t expect the Chiefs to reach 30 against the Steelers defense.
On the Steelers side of the ball, they will likely be going another week without the Chief killer, running back Le’Veon Bell. While this sounds good on paper, it isn’t as big of a deal as many would make you think it is. James Conner is a good running back who may not be able to hit the home run like Bell can, but he can chew up yards and eat the clock. The Chiefs defense is not deep and if Conner can get first downs and keep the defense on the field, it will be a long night for the Chiefs defense.
The run defense is the strength of this Chiefs defense, so you’d think after a week of knocking off the rust, they’d be ready to go and would do a good job on controlling Conner. Which means the Steelers will need to beat the Chiefs through the air and with Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster that is a good possibility. The Chiefs secondary is not good, especially with the status of Eric Berry still in question. If the Chiefs pass rush can’t put pressure on Ben Roethlisberger and he has a clean pocket, he will gash the Chiefs all night.
The Steelers are coming off an embarrassing performance in Cleveland and will not be taking the Chiefs lightly. The Chiefs are coming off a great victory and are looking to exorcise their demons in Pittsburgh. This should be the best game of the week and should have been on Sunday or Monday night football. The easiest bet of the week should be taking the over on the 53 number as the strength of both teams is the offense. WIth Mahomes at the helm the Chiefs won’t be holding for clock and trying to be in it at the end, they will play to win and they’ll score so jump all over the over here.
I would recommend you not bet on the line of -5 and just enjoy the game. However, if you are like me and enjoy a small wager just for the sake of it then I would recommend taking the Chiefs to cover the five-point spread, but I think the Steelers win 30-27. The Chiefs have a great shot at winning this game outright which is why I’d take the points, but it’s very hard to pick a team to beat their kryptonite until they do—just like we said about the Chargers a week ago.