How many interceptions are acceptable for a first-year starter like Patrick Mahomes? Let’s look at recent NFL history for a closer look.
The word of the day is “interception.” As in people are starting to notice that Patrick Mahomes has thrown a few of them in training camp and are deciding to either make it a big deal or not.
The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is going to be a radical departure from his predecessor, as Alex Smith was often called a game manager and, even when he threw deep, he never threw deep mistakes. Last year, he led the NFL with a 1.0 interception rate, which means that 1 percent of his throws went for an interception. That’s pretty impressive no matter if you want to label someone game manager or not.
Now the Chiefs have turned to the live arm of Mahomes, a player whose hype is through the roof on a regional and even national level. While some NFL analysts are picking the Chiefs to drop in the standings this year due to the change at quarterback, it’s also not hard to find believers that Mahomes will reward the Chiefs patience and investment, that he is truly something special.
If Mahomes is going throw more interceptions, Chiefs Kingdom might as well get used to it. The question that arose for me internally was simple: if the Chiefs are more likely to turn the ball over in 2018, just how many should be considered acceptable?
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Looking at the list of first-year starters with the most interceptions of all time gives a bit of relief. Some of the best quarterbacks of all-time had rough (or even really rough) first seasons in the league as a full-time starter. Some examples:
- No one has more interceptions in his first year in the NFL than Peyton Manning (28).
- Terry Bradshaw comes in at No. 4 overall in terms of INTs thrown during a first year (24)
- Several other Hall of Famers also threw at least 16 INTs (1/game, at least) during their first season: Troy Aikman, Jim Kelly, Bob Griese, Fran Tarkenton, Bob Waterfield
- Beyond even Hall of Fame QBs, Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton and Matt Stafford are all active players who threw at least 16 picks.
There are, of course, a lot of other players who didn’t turn out as well. Looking even at first year starters with 16 INTs their first season since 2000, you have the aforementioned active players who have turned the corner, but there are also myriad of others that would depress you. Geno Smith, Mark Sanchez, Joey Harrington, Josh Freeman, Brandon Weeden and others are players who threw a lot of interceptions and simply couldn’t right the ship.
That said, there are so many more factors going into Mahomes’s career to ensure his success compared to the guys who never got better. So many of those players who threw a ton of picks were thrown to the wolves with horrible teams. The coaching staffs were horrible, the offensive lines were turnstiles, the supporting casts were weak. Instead, Mahomes has the most loaded offense in football coached by one of the best offensive minds in the game. He’s sat for a year just learning the system, and he carries himself like a 10-year pro.
It will be interesting to see how quickly Mahomes learns from his mistakes, of which there will be plenty, and also how fans react after years without turnovers from the quarterback position. Here’s hoping Mahomes can be the next positive name on a list most QBs would pray to avoid.