Sammy Watkins could plausibly be fourth in targets in the 2018 Chiefs offense and still be worth his massive contract.
Sammy Watkins’ $48 million contract has become a negotiation point for many of the league’s top pass-catchers. I imagine that Odell Beckham is in a group chat with Julio Jones and Rob Gronkowski, angrily tapping away. “If Sammy freaking Watkins is worth $19 million in 2019, what are we worth?!” I also imagine that Gronk responds with an eggplant emoji, not really answering the question, but amusing himself.
And truthfully, I don’t think that’s an unfair metric for any of those guys to use. Beckham, Jones and Gronkowski have all out-produced Sammy Watkins by leaps and bounds. I’m not even preparing for an argument on behalf of Watkins having the better film. Nobody really has better film than those three. They’re three of the most dominant forces in the NFL, and they all deserve paychecks that surpass Watkins’.
But Kansas City Chiefs fans have a more interesting question to answer: what does $48 million over three years buy you? What does it need to buy you?
Here’s the wild thing: there is a non-insane course of action that makes Sammy Watkins the fourth option on this offense. This doesn’t involve Chris Conley jumping him on the depth chart or anything. Just Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce getting their expected number of targets, then Tyreek Hill slightly outpacing Watkins. You could be paying option number four $48 million over the next three years.
Here’s the even more wild thing: that could be completely okay.
Sammy Watkins’ time in Kansas City doesn’t have to be defined by his individual production. It probably shouldn’t be. At this point, Watkins, Hill, Kelce and Hunt are beholden to the results of the offense as a whole. The film can and will be broken down, and we’ll be able to assess them as individuals, but that won’t be the lasting barometer.
I’m never one to defend imprudent spending – I’ve said as loud as anyone I know that the NFL is a value game. And that continues to be true. But if the Chiefs believe that the jump from Chris Conley to Sammy Watkins takes a good set of offensive weapons up to an unstoppable one, then I’m willing to pay the price. The matchup problems for defenses should be nearly unsolvable.
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As brought up in today’s show, the two teams in the entire NFL who seem potentially capable of dealing with this wealth of talent are two teams on the 2018 roster: the Jaguars and the Rams. But even they are no shoo-in. The Chiefs are going to trot out two terrifying deep threats at wide receiver, one of the two best tight ends in football and a dangerously versatile running back on every offensive play. Go ahead – starting picking who you want to match up with one-on-one. Bring out six defensive backs, and Kareem Hunt will carry this offense on the ground until you figure out how to stop that option.
Seriously. The offense is going to be insane, with or without an incredible season of production from Sammy Watkins. He demands attention and respect. As long as he makes defenses pay for leaving him one-on-one, then he will be achieving his minimum expectations, and that will be enough.
None of this is to say that Watkins can’t or won’t be this team’s number one receiver or most dangerous offensive weapon. He can be, and very well might be. (Don’t let the stats fool you.)
But for Sammy Watkins to be “worth it” to the Chiefs, he doesn’t need to put up the numbers of Odell Beckham or Julio Jones, even if he is paid like them.
For more on this topic and many others, listen to today’s podcast featuring myself and Seth Keysor of The Athletic.
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