Sammy Watkins presents an interesting fantasy football conundrum

To avoid or not to avoid. The appeal of Sammy Watkins in Kansas City’s offense is offset by his inconsistent production in previous seasons for fantasy players.

It all begins with the arm of Patrick Mahomes.

As the Kansas City Chiefs pass the torch from longtime starting quarterback Alex Smith to Mahomes, fantasy football players are also planning on picking up many of the Chiefs offensive players—if they haven’t already. It’s because of this new anchor under center that so many fantasy predictions are sky-high for those wearing red and gold.

It’s not that the Chiefs were offensive slouches last year, as they were the only team with a wide receiver who caught 1,000 yards worth of passes (in Tyreek Hill), a tight end who did the same (in Travis Kelce) and a running back who also crossed the 1K yard mark (in Kareem Hunt). In other words, the Chiefs were already loaded before replacing their quarterback with a cannon of an upgrade.

What could make all of these weapons even more potent is the addition of wide receiver Sammy Watkins, a former top 10 draft pick who cost the Chiefs a pretty penny ($48 million of them to be exact). Watkins has never lived up to his draft investment although he has put up some very solid numbers at the pro level. Injuries and constantly changing teams (and offenses) have taken their toll, keeping Watkins from being what many expected of him.

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Yet Watkins is also still only 24 and even in a limited role learning on the fly last year, Watkins had 8 touchdowns receiving for the Los Angeles Rams. In 2015 with a young Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, Watkins had 60 catches for 1,047 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns for the Buffalo Bills. And what is very clear is that even though he’s learning another system, Watkins should enjoy playing for an offensive mind like Andy Reid.

It’s enticing then to add Watkins to the names of K.C.’s offensive weapons as fantasy must-owns. But Marcas Grant of NFL.com isn’t so convinced. In fact, he put Watkins on a recent list of players to avoid in fantasy football this year. He writes:

"A move to Kansas City pairs him with the strong-armed and freewheeling Patrick Mahomes, which would seem to be a good thing for a deep threat like Watkins. But with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce already claiming a large number of targets (and Kareem Hunt not far behind), how much will be left for Watkins? Also, the part about Watkins being on his fifth offensive coordinator in five seasons doesn’t feel all that great in the pit of your stomach, does it? No. No, it does not."

Those are great points, to be sure, and those insights should keep Watkins from being among the top wide receivers taken. Hill is a much more solid bet as K.C.’s primary deep threat going into 2018, and there are other receivers who are safer bets in the early rounds.

But beyond that, Watkins might not get 100 targets thrown his way in 2018 but that won’t keep him from putting up very solid numbers. Brett Veach spoke glowingly of Watkins after signing him, saying he has been a key target for the Chiefs for a year in the hopes of securing his playmaking services. A full offseason learning the Chiefs system should help Watkins make an early impact and it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see Watkins reach 800 yards as a baseline for this season (remember that’s only 50 yards/game).

More than anything, Watkins comes up big in the end zone. If he finds chemistry with Mahomes, the fantasy points could roll in simply because others are leery of Watkins’ reputation as a letdown after being taken so high. The doubts are understandable, but there’s also the possibility of hitting big on K.C.’s new addition.

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