What should we expect from Patrick Mahomes in 2018?
David Carr – 2014 and 2015 seasons – Oakland Raiders
Obviously as Chiefs fans we don’t like giving praise to the enemy, but Derek Carr had a really solid start to his NFL career. Unlike Mahomes, Carr started right away as a rookie. His numbers took a noticeable jump in his second season. I thought it might be good to look at the numbers for both of those since this will be both Mahomes first season starting and second in the NFL.
Carr’s rookie season:
348 of 599 (58.1%)
3,270 yards (5.5 YPA)
76.6 quarterback rating
Carr’s second season:
350 of 573 (61.1%)
3,987 yards (7.0 YPA)
91.1 quarterback rating
Again, with all the hype around Mahomes I think KC fans will be disappointed with numbers similar to Carr’s rookie season. They are perfectly reasonable for a first time NFL starter, but Mahomes has flashed so much upside, has an offensive expert head coach, and a really talented arsenal of offensive weapons so I think Chiefs fans are looking for more. That having been said, Carr’s numbers in his second season are a lot to ask out of a first time starter. Still, I think those numbers (maybe with a few less touchdowns) might be a reasonable ceiling for expectations.
Finally, just to really feed into the hype machine, let’s look at one more guy.