What should we expect from Patrick Mahomes in 2018?

Alex Smith – 2013 and 2017 seasons – Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes will be the second starting quarterback in Andy Reid’s tenure in Kansas City. Despite the lack of postseason success, his predecessor Alex Smith still had a successful five years in KC. I think the two best seasons to look at when trying to predict Mahomes numbers this season are Smith’s first season under Reid and his last season because of the evolution of Reid’s offense and the similarity in offensive weapons.

Smith’s first season in KC:
308 of 508 (60.6%)
3,313 yards (6.5 YPA)
23 touchdowns
7 interceptions
89.1 quarterback rating

Smith’s last season in KC:
341 of 505 (67.5%)
4,042 yards (8.0 YPA)
26 touchdowns
5 interceptions
104.7 quarterback rating

Obviously, Chiefs fans would be much more excited about Mahomes if he put up numbers similar to Smith’s last season. However, that seems like a lot to ask from a first time starter. Smith’s 67.5% completion percentage and five interceptions seem especially unrealistic to me. I think the numbers from Smith’s first season in KC are much more realistic for a first time starter, but again, I’m not sure how excited most fans would be if Mahomes only threw for 3,300 yards and 23 touchdowns, especially if he also throws more interceptions than Smith did.

Let’s look at one more former Reid quarterback to see if there are any patterns between the three we’ve looked at so far.