Wide receivers are falling leading up to the NFL Draft, which makes us wonder what if they fall farther than expected?
The days and hours leading up to the annual NFL draft are akin to a stock exchange, with individual player stocks rising and falling with positional markets sometimes representing bull and bear markets. The 2018 NFL Draft is no different.
This year, quarterbacks are all on the rise with four quarterbacks set to be taken within the first several selections and another one or even two could be selected in the first round. That’s a grand total of six. On the flip side, there’s not a position more derided at this stage than wide receivers, where even the best of the best—the Courtland Suttons, Calvin Ridleys and D.J. Moores of the world—are being told their stock is slipping.
It’s not that wideouts are less valuable these days in such a pass-happy league. It’s that the bust rate is particularly high at the position and this year’s class lacks an obvious franchise pick. There’s no Calvin Johnson in this year’s class, at least on the surface. Even last year’s class, which featured Corey Davis, Mike Williams and John Ross all taken in the first 9 picks, is the ideal example of three players who are still waiting to make an impact. One year later, they all look suspect.
Jon Ledyard recently predicted only a single wide receiver would be taken in the first round, and Mike Mayock’s Top 100 prospect rankings puts the best, Moore, at No. 25 overall. That sort of ranking could easily put Moore and his contemporaries out of the first round entirely if teams feel the need to go after positions of more importance, where there’s less to select from in Day 2.
So let’s run a scenario here: what if there’s not a single wide receiver taken in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft? That means that Ridley, Sutton and Moore are all suddenly available atop the second round, pushing down the next tier into the middle and bottom of Round 2 or the top of Round 3. That means Michael Gallup, Anthony Miller, Christian Kirk, James Washington and the like are all going to be available later than expected.
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The Kansas City Chiefs have Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins already penciled in as their starters on the outside for 2018 and beyond. If both players stay healthy, wide receiver shouldn’t really be a primary concern for K.C. Yet a closer look reveals that Chris Conley is returning from a season-ending injury and is in his last season with the team. Watkins is too pricey to move for the first two years of his deal, but his entire contract is up in just three seasons and he could be dealt/released heading into that third year.
Assuming the Chiefs strike a long-term extension to keep Hill happy in Kansas City, the Chiefs are a bit thin after Watkins/Hill on the roster right now and could use a strong prospect long-term, especially if there’s help in the slot on the way, where Albert Wilson enjoyed some success last year. Then again, maybe the Chiefs want to add another deep threat to accent Patrick Mahomes’s cannon of an arm.
If the draft stock dips enough that the Chiefs have a chance to trade up cheaply to grab a potential blue chip at the position, it might be worth the move to grab value even if it’s at a spot on the roster where the impact isn’t immediate.