2018 NFL Draft: Exploring a potential Lamar Jackson plummet to the Chiefs

What if quarterback prospect Lamar Jackson falls in the 2018 NFL Draft and lands right in the lap of the Kansas City Chiefs? A hypothetical post.

I need to get right to the disclaimers here because the level of emotional hot takes and insta-responses is likely to be high. And we’ll get to all of that, but this is still a post worth writing. And we’ll get to those reasons, too.

Last week we spoke with Dan Kadar, NFL analyst for SB Nation, about various draft prospects for the Chiefs. It’s a great read with some new names for fans to research. In the process, I asked him about Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson, because he’s such an intriguing prospect. His answer confirms his tweener status.

I also asked about Jackson, in part, because front offices will tell you that they prepare themselves for every scenario during this time of year:

What if there’s a run on this position?
What if this top-rated player falls precipitously?
What is the least we need to trade back and how far are we willing to do so?

Knowing that the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t able to make their first (scheduled) pick until the second round, and hearing the rumors that Jackson could potentially be available in the second creates a bit of a war room scenario that could become uncomfortable. The reasons? Both sides would have serious merit.

So in the interest of exploring this scenario (and looking at this prospect) a bit further, let’s have our own hypothetical war room scenario.

A closer look at Jackson

Before we answer quickly whether or not the Chiefs would stop Jackson’s free fall or allow him to last another selection, it’s important to know more about his draft status.

The stats are all there from his tenure as the starter for Louisville. He threw for 9,043 passing yards, 69 touchdowns and only 27 interceptions during his three seasons under center. His completion percentage increased each year to a career best 59.1% in 2017.

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In addition to those solid passing stats, remember that Jackson added another 50 rushing touchdowns to that total for 119 total TDs. He rushed 655 times for 4,132 rushing yards, good for a 6.3 yards/carry average (6.9 yards/carry in 2017).

The Heisman Trophy winner isn’t a product of a system at all, but instead comes with a live NFL arm, rare overall athleticism, solid footwork and release and sound judgment in the pocket.

Unfortunately he doesn’t hit all of the measurables for NFL teams and he also comes with the “runner” tag. As Kadar told us, “He has a couple things going against him: His height and, moreso, his propensity to run.” Fans and draft analysts can often think in binary terms on prospects—that there’s a sliding scale where the better you run, the worse you are at passing and vice versa.

In fact, he’s currently having to fight to even play his natural position in the NFL, with some experts stating that he needs to switch to wide receiver a la Braxon Miller or Terrelle Pryor. With concerns about his overall accuracy and his build (“short,” “slight”), some teams will knock him down their draft boards, and the projections currently have him somewhere between late first/second rounds.

The case against Jackson

A quarterback? Really. Can you imagine the response of Chiefs Kingdom?

For the Kansas City Chiefs to take a quarterback with their first overall selection in a draft just after using their first overall selection on a quarterback the previous year would be bananas. The Chiefs had an extensive plan in place to hand over the starting quarterback role from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes. They’ve completed that journey. Any major investment up top is over.

Brett Veach also traded away Alex Smith in record time this offseason. Certainly it didn’t hurt that the timing allowed there to be zero doubt about any quarterback controversy for the entirety of the offseason. Veach cleared the skies over Mahomes’s head, so why add some clouds in late April?

Even more, teams love to say “best player available” but these Chiefs need help at every level starting in the trenches on both sides. Whether it’s an interior lineman for the offense or defense, a defensive end, a pass rusher, an inside linebacker, a cornerback or a safety, every single one of those positions presents a real need (and draft possibility) for the Chiefs’ first pick in the draft. (Note that QB is actually one of the very few positions at which they don’t need instant starting help.)

The case for Jackson

There are actually a few “pros” here, despite what you might think.

First and foremost, let’s all swallow a bitter pill for just a second and admit that we don’t know just how Patrick Mahomes will turn out as a pro quarterback. Is he the next Brett Favre? Is he the next Todd Blackledge? We have some preseason glimpses and a road win in Week 17. That’s all. We should, of course, feel very good about what we’ve seen. The front office has bet on it. The coaches are raving. Mahomes himself looks the part and the slight bits of evidence we have all say the same.

At the same time, there are no guarantees here, or perhaps more realistically, the Chiefs currently have no back-up. None. Even Tyler Bray is a free agent. There are options on the open market, including a familiar face in Chase Daniel. The Chiefs could certainly address Mahomes’ understudy in ways that don’t require their best draft asset, but at some point the Chiefs will need to bring in another quarterback or even two.

The other plus side to drafting Jackson for that back-up role is that he’s also going to be very, very cheap. The Chiefs would have more potential than any other NFL team at the game’s most important position at the cheapest possible price. They would also have someone at the ready in case their own top prospect gets injured or goes south. (How many other teams can even say that?)

Remember the Washington Redskins draft from 2012, when they packaged a ridiculous amount of picks to get their own Mahomes named Robert Griffin III. In the fourth round, they added Kirk Cousins because they also lacked a back-up. Six years later, Cousins will soon be given the biggest overall contract ever handed to a quarterback despite the fact that he had to hold a clipboard for the better prospect.

Taking Jackson would also most likely be the BPA (best player available) scenario. Scouts are united on one thing about Jackson—he’s a truly gifted player who is able to change a game like very few others. It’s the position that starts to divide everyone, but you won’t find a single person questioning his talent or ability to impact the game, even at the highest level. Is it possible that you take a talent like Jackson when available and worry later about fit?

Conclusion

This whole exercise is unlikely to happen, of course. Quarterbacks are such a high need in this league, that Jackson’s supposedly down stock is likely the result of smokescreen(s) from teams wanting him to remain available later in the draft order.

However, what if the question marks are real? His availability would certainly complicate the picture for the Chiefs at No. 54 overall. Jackson is so much more talented than the top 54 players available for the draft, so no matter what position he plays, some team is going to find themselves with a truly dynamic player just for taking the risk.

Both sides have considerable merit but most Chiefs fans would likely feel much better about some pass rushing help (or some other such need being met) on draft day. Perhaps the best scenario would be for Jackson to be long gone by the time the Chiefs are up so that it’s not even a war room battle to begin with.

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