Patrick Mahomes’ effect on the Chiefs secondary receivers
By Jack Weber
As the Kansas City Chiefs make a change to the strong-armed Patrick Mahomes, the team’s secondary receivers will likely enjoy increased production.
This year’s Kansas City Chiefs offense produced the most firepower fans have seen since Trent Green and Dick Vermeil. Alex Smith was a five-game stretch away from being the NFL MVP, and for the first time in years, the Chiefs offense was a force to be reckoned with. The Chiefs had multiple thousand-yard receivers, a thousand-yard rusher, and a four-thousand-yard passer. However, the production after that falls off a cliff.
Excluding the trio of Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, the next largest contributor on offense was Albert Wilson who was having what many Chiefs fans considered a breakout season. In the 12 games he played with Alex Smith at quarterback, Wilson recorded 32 catches for 407 yards. If we assume the same production for a 16-game season that’s good for 40 catches and 509 yards, which ranks him as the 63rd and 62nd best wide receiver in the NFL.
Chris Conley went into the season as the Chiefs number 2 receiver, but unfortunately only played in 5 games catching 11 passes for 175 yards putting him on pace for 35 catches for 560 yards. Giving him the 70th most catches and 56th most yards. When Demarcus Robinson took over as the number 2, he received similar targets even after seemingly being open every play.
The production drop isn’t limited to wide receivers however, Demetrius Harris had 15 catches for 151 yards with Alex at quarterback, earning him the 52nd most catches and 55th most receiving yards among tight ends.
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The Chiefs secondary receiving options have consistently ranked at the bottom of the league statistically under Alex Smith. Chiefs fans really don’t even know if any of the lesser known receivers are good because they’ve never gotten a chance to succeed.
That will all change with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. One of the things that made Mahomes so great at Texas Tech was that he spread the ball around so well. In his senior season, the Tech offense had 21 players with receptions, as well as 9 players with over 200 receiving yards. Even in Texas Tech’s offense, those numbers are impressive. This year without Mahomes, the Tech offense only had 16 players with receptions and 5 with 200 yards.
With Smith at quarterback the play ends after the second read or at the first sign of pressure. With Mahomes, the play isn’t over until the whistle blows. As we saw in the Denver Broncos game in Week 17, Mahomes has the ability to make a throw anywhere on the field to any receiver. Even with instant pressure, Mahomes can make plays that Smith just never did.
Many of the Chiefs receivers outside of the big names have never gotten a chance to show what they’ve got. A perfect example of this is Albert Wilson, who before his one game with Mahomes, probably wouldn’t have gotten any higher than a $3 million deal this offseason. In Denver, Mahomes made him look like a true number 1 option and now he’s projected to get $4 – 5 million.
This offseason I’ve seen many Chiefs fans claiming the Chiefs need a jump ball receiver, even though the combine record holder for high jump and broad jump for wide receivers is on our roster. Back in the 2015 NFL combine Chris Conley had a 45-inch vertical and an 11-foot, 7-inch broad jump, which has yet to have been beaten by a wide receiver.
Chris Conley, like many other Chiefs, never got the chance to truly shine at their respective positions with Alex at QB but now they’ll all get their chances. The 6’2 receiver will have every opportunity to show off his ridiculous combine numbers with a quarterback who will utilize him more than once or twice a game.
With Patrick Mahomes spreading the ball around in 2018, it’s easy to think players like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill could see a reduced number of targets. However, defenses are going to have to start preparing for the Chiefs secondary receiving options. This should help to open up the offense, especially for players like Travis Kelce who is often bracketed by multiple defenders all game.
That being said, it’s a real possibility that many Chiefs have career years in 2018.
Predictions:
Chris Conley: For the first time in his career, Conley will get a No. 2 receiver’s worth of targets and he’ll capitalize on them. I see him becoming one of the better deep ball threats in the league and having a similar season to Mohamed Sanu did this year with the Falcons.
65 receptions, 750 yards, and 6 TDs
Demetrius Harris (or whoever is the Chiefs No. 2 tight end in 2018): Personally, I’m not the biggest fan of Harris. Maybe the ball will be thrown hard enough that it sticks to his hands better? Either way, I think he has an increase in production.
25 receptions, 220 yards, 3 TDs
Albert Wilson: After Wilson’s performance with Mahomes I see the Chiefs re-signing him. Wilson can foreseeably become Mahomes’ safety valve and could rack up plenty of short yard catches.
50 receptions, 550 yards, 2 TDs
The Chiefs have a lot to look forward to in 2018 and it isn’t limited to the big names. Patrick Mahomes at quarterback opens up a whole new aspect of our offense, and the lesser known names might be the ones who benefit the most.