Coby Fleener could make a perfect target for Kansas City Chiefs

The market has changed considerably for Coby Fleener.

Less than two years ago, the New Orleans Saints gave him the sort of mega-payday that most NFL players covet: a five-year contract on the open market after wrapping up his rookie deal with the Indianapolis Colts. The sum total over five years was a generous $36 million, a hefty commitment at the time considering Fleener was coming off of a down year statistically speaking due to the Colts carousel at quarterback in 2015 (the start of Andrew Luck’s shoulder woes which forced Matt Hasselbeck to start half the season).

Two years into his nice new contract, word is that the Saints are likely to move on from such an expensive proposition. The addition and commitment to Fleener made sense when he was envisioned as part of a few-pronged passing attack that would help Drew Brees continue to move the chains. One year after signing Fleener, the Saints advanced to the Divisional round of the playoffs with a two-headed rushing attack—Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara—that doesn’t require Brees to have so many (expensive) targets.

If ESPN’s Mike Triplett is correct in his guess that Fleener could be a cap casualty, the tight end immediately becomes an interesting proposition on the open market for a team like the Kansas City Chiefs.

Fleener’s days as a dynamic young pass-catching option are over. Time and injuries have taken that away from him, so the idea of Fleener shouldn’t conjure any of the images associated with the moment the Colts drafted both Fleener and Dwayne Allen. At the time, Ryan Grigson apparently thought the best use of early draft picks was to form Patriots West with the Colts, Indy’s own version of a dynamic two-headed TE monster. It is, of course, one of 100 reasons why Grigson was fired, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that Fleener is still a valuable offensive player.

A need for Fleener

Two years ago, the Chiefs signed Demetrius Harris to a three-year extension worth just over $6 million. Two years in, they can cut Harris and only take a $200K hit in dead cap space. While Harris has developed nicely as a football player in many ways, he’s also proved unreliable as a pass catcher. Sometimes he’s able to use his frame and athleticism to make the big grab, but the drops are maddening as the ball bounces off his chest.

Demetrius Harris only has 30 targets with the #Chiefs yet has 7 drops. That's a drop rate of 31.82%
— Travis Steffen (@nflstuff999) December 27, 2017

After two years of this same issue creeping in, the Chiefs might decide that this is the year to turn the page on the college basketball experiments. Ross Travis was already let go in favor of Orson Charles, who himself dropped a key pass near the end of the Chiefs’ postseason loss to the Titans.

In addition, it’s important to note how quickly the offense stalled this postseason without Travis Kelce, who left due to a concussion. If the Chiefs move on to Patrick Mahomes, it’s important to note how different things will be (and not just in assumedly positive ways), but having a reliable pass catcher at tight end beyond Kelce (or even with Kelce) seems like a nice item on the offseason shopping list for Brett Veach.

What Fleener brings

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Enter the possibility of Fleener. The market will be much colder toward Fleener this time around due to injury history, recent production and age. Fleener ended this year on injured reserve due to a concussion, the fifth of his career. Fleener also failed to start a single game last year of 11 and set several career-low marks with only 22 catches (2 per game) for 295 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns. It’s also important to note that Fleener will turn 30 next September.

All together, this sounds like a veteran player to dismiss but that’s also not the case at all. The stats don’t tell the whole story here for Fleener. A closer look reveals that Fleener generated more yards/reception (13.4) than he has since 2014 and his pass catch rate of 73% was by far the best of his career. He caught 22 of 30 targets, which made his a remarkably reliable outlet for Brees. (By comparison, Demetrius Harris caught 18 of 35 targets for a 51% catch rate.) The simple fact is that the Saints didn’t need Fleener that much, and they certainly don’t need him at such a cost-prohibitive rate.

For a closer look at the way Fleener uses his quick release, speed and size (at 6’6, 250 lbs.) to create mismatches, check out the following. The Minnesota Vikings are well-coached with a great defense and yet Fleener is able to consistently get a quick downfield release and use his size to go over the top even in double or triple coverage.

Check out the same game in the end zone, where Fleener outmuscles Trae Waynes in perfect position despite near-perfect coverage from the 6’0 cornerback:

Fleener caught many of his passes out of the slot this season for the Saints, and his ability to line up as a receiver could create interesting new wrinkles for Andy Reid’s offense. The Chiefs already have depth at receiver so adding another veteran target at the depth chart there makes little sense (unless John Dorsey jacks Albert Wilson’s price too high). At tight end, the Chiefs could add the veteran they need in an offseason where they have an excuse to address the position anyway. Plus Fleener would be perfect insurance in case something were to happen to Travis Kelce.

Contract guess

As he prepares to turn 30, it’s hard seeing Fleener getting anything more than a three-year deal and it’s possible that a one- or two-year deal might make sense if Fleener wants to bet on himself for a season in the hopes of reeling off one more nice extension. That’s like a longshot, so it wouldn’t surprise to see Fleener command something a la Ben Watson on the market in 2016 when he signed a two-year, $7 million deal. Watson was 35 years old but coming off of a career-best season of 825 receiving yards (for the Saints, actually).

Next: Brett Veach's early moves worked out well

Fleener is talented and has proven to be a nice target yet teams also have to be concerned with that concussion history. A two-year commitment for $3 to $3.5 million per season could make sense for both sides.

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