Why the Los Angeles Chargers are an overhyped product
Stakes are high as the Los Angeles Chargers come to Arrowhead this weekend in a winner takes the division game.
Stakes are high for the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs leading up to the showdown set to take play at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday night. Two teams looking to take the stronghold of the AFC West with a victory. Much like the final game of the 2013 regular season, winning on Saturday could give Los Angeles a strong chance of a playoff berth.
The Chiefs have won seven straight since the 2013 regular-season finale looking to tie their record of win streaks over the Chargers going back to 1990-1993. What made the last game they lost more intriguing was that the Chiefs played mostly backups to preserve their starters for the playoffs and still took it to overtime. To make things even more fascinating, the last time the Chargers were favored in a game against the Chiefs was week 4 of 2012 when the Chiefs finished the season at 2-14.
Regardless of the favoritism in this game, the Chiefs are still in a great position to upset the Chargers current four-game win streak. Here’s why.
The Chargers are overhyped
The Chargers have made a remarkable turnaround to their season after starting off 0-4. Winning their last four games have brought an abundance of attention and possibly over hype to their franchise. Reflecting back on their schedule, the Chargers are precisely opposite to the Chiefs in the sense they win games against impotent opponents and lose to more vigorous opponents. The Chiefs have been the opposite down their stretch losing to some of the worst teams in the league.
Take a look at the last four games for the Chargers
- Buffalo Bills led by rookie quarterback Nathan Peterman throwing 5 interceptions.
- Dallas Cowboys without running back Ezekiel Elliott, starting LT, and LB Sean Lee
- Cleveland Browns, must I say more?
- Washington Redskins who have 11 starters on injured reserve.
The only two teams with winning records that the Chargers have defeated are the Bills with a rookie quarterback who’s never played an NFL snap and the Cowboys who are without their running back who was a top three rusher in the league. They still have yet to beat a team that is a true playoff contender losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars, New England Patriots, and Philidelphia Eagles.
Philip Rivers struggles
Dating back to 2014, during the seven-game win streak against the Chargers, Los Angeles quarterback Philip Rivers has thrown 5 touchdowns to his 10 interceptions. His completion rate in those seven-games combined is 58%. The six-time Pro Bowler has failed to throw the ball for 300 yards against the Chiefs defense during their seven-game losing streak.
Upon reviewing games throughout the Chargers season I came to one conclusion. When matched up against superior defenses like Denver, Philidelphia, and Jacksonville Rivers tended to struggle. When playing these 3 games, the second Denver game which is more relevant, Rivers has failed to even throw for a completion rate of 58%. If you want to add Kansas City to that list, the outcome would be the same throwing for a completion rate of 50% in week 3.
Going back and watching the week 3 game against the Chargers, the offensive line struggled to sustain a clean pocket for Rivers. The six-time Pro Bowler is not one of the more mobile quarterbacks in the league and often has to throw the ball away when there is pressure. The Chiefs only recorded two sacks in this game but they coerced Rivers to dump the ball before he wanted to result in interceptions and bad passes.
The Chiefs secondary
The Chiefs have been one of the worst secondaries in the league this season but they look to be turning things around. Even without star cornerback Marcus Peters on the field last Sunday, the Raiders were not able to get into the end zone until the fourth quarter when the Chiefs had let up. Cornerbacks Terrance Mitchell, Darrelle Revis, and Steven Nelson all had a good game.
Per @PFF, #Chiefs CB Darrelle Revis played 56 out of 61 defensive snaps vs. the Raiders.
— Chiefs Reporter (@ChiefsReporter) December 11, 2017
Derek Carr targeted Revis 7 times, with Revis allowing only 1 reception for 8 yards. He had 1 pass defensed and a 39.6 passer rating when throwing in his direction. pic.twitter.com/oiuialSH4n
Revis, who struggled in his first game back after not playing for 11 months, looked much better against the Raiders. Only sanctioning one catch when he was targeted continually. The Chiefs additionally made it a point to play the cornerbacks at the line of scrimmage and play more physical. This feeds into all the Chiefs cornerbacks best traits. They were playing ten yards off most of the time during the rest of the season and it got them burned perpetually.
Peters will be back with the team to face the Chargers this Saturday with something to prove. Having a week off from the team will most likely make him play better with a clear mind. Expecting a very physical game from Peters and the rest of the defense. Rivers rarely threw it in the directions of Peters during the week 3 matchup and I expect that to continue. If Revis can continue the same play from last week, it will really limit where Rivers can dump the ball.
Chargers run defense
The Chargers have struggled against the run game all year and are averaging 124.8 rushing yards given up a game, which ranks 29th in the NFL. Regardless of the playcalling this season going away from the run game, the Chiefs haven’t given rookie running back Kareem Hunt the ball less than 17 times against a divisional opponent. Hunt decimated the Chargers in week 3 running the ball 17 times for 172 yards and a touchdown.
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Only one game during that four-game win streak for the Chargers has a team running back not averaged four or more yards per carry and that was the Redskins. With 11 starters on injured reserve, the Redskins are down to their fourth-round draft pick Samaje Perine. The Chiefs should capitalize on this once again on Saturday night to not only pick apart the defense but to keep the Chargers offense off the field.
Hunt, who has been the primary focus for defenses as of late, has averaged 4.8 yards per carry on the season. Even with defenses stacking the box with eight defenders 26.61% of the time, Hunt manages to still make yards with his elusiveness. Leading the league with 122 missed tackles, he turns negative yardage into positive.
After the first five weeks of the season, the Chiefs fell off in the run game dramatically. Most of this blame can go on the playcalling by head coach Andy Reid. The offensive line has been an issue in run blocking as well but Hunt still averaged more than four yards per carry a game. The line looked much improved last week against the Oakland Raiders and it seemed the line had simpler assignments. If the line can continue that against an even worse run defense this week, this could be a long night for the Chargers as Hunt drives them into the ground.
Chiefs passing game is back
After virtually two months of deplorable play from quarterback Alex Smith, the offense looks to be back on track. Smith has gone back to pulling the trigger on deeper and tight window throws and it’s resulted in prosperity. Neither the New York Jets or the Oakland Raiders had an answer to decelerate Smith.
The Chiefs have scored 147 points from outside of the red zone leading the NFL, and they rank second with an average of 6.16 yards per play. Smith has also had great success when facing the Chargers over the last six games. In those games, he has averaged a 105.3 passer rating. With the run game opening up the passing game, I expect Smith to have a good night against this Chargers defense everyone wants to chat about.
Wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce are two players that have proven to be very difficult to gameplan against. Both are looking to surpass the 1,000-yard receiving mark in this game. This will be the first time in franchise history that the Chiefs have had a running back over 1,000 yards rushing and two receivers over 1,000 yards receiving.
Even with the stretch of abysmal games for the offense and Smith, he’s still having the best year of his career. If people are going to talk about Rivers in the MVP talk, they have to take a look at Smith as well. If Smith throws one touchdown pass this weekend he will have surpassed his touchdown passes in one season. Last week he passed his career best of passing yards in a single season.
Next: The Chiefs have re-established their offensive baseline
This game against the Chargers could be big for Smith if he wants to prove to the world he can go deep into the playoffs. Smith most likely will not be on the Chiefs roster next year and wants to bolster his resume with a deeper playoff push. Winning this game would give the Chiefs the best chance at the number 4 seed and give them home-field advantage in the wild card.