Why the Chiefs will be okay without Eric Berry

The Kansas City Chiefs are dealing with another dark cloud in Eric Berry’s injury, but they’ve weathered this particular storm before.

The Kansas City Chiefs learned today that they will be without Eric Berry for the rest of the season after he tore his Achilles tendon last night. This is a dark cloud over an otherwise perfect game, but it’s not the first time this cloud has rolled in.

Berry missed the entire 2011 season when he tore his ACL in the opener against the Buffalo Bills. Three years later, in 2014, the safety missed nine of the team’s 16 games. He missed four games early in the year with a high ankle sprain and was out the final five games after being diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. A good barometer to predict future success is to look back at historical precedence, so let’s take a look back at those two seasons and see how the Chiefs defense did minus Berry.

As any stat geek will tell you, the best way to compare numbers is to compare them with as little variable change as possible. This means the 2014 season should be the best gauge of team production with and without Berry because they played seven games with him and nine games without him. That means there is a good amount of data for the same season, with the same roster and defensive scheme.

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Herman Edwards once said, “You play to win the game.” It’s interesting to see that the team didn’t see any drop without Berry. The team finished 9-7 in 2014; they were 4-3 with him and 5-4 in the games he missed. Statistically speaking, the Chiefs defense improved without Berry in the lineup. In games he played the team gave up 340.1 total yards and 17.7 points per game. Without him those numbers improved to 323 total yards and 17.4 points per game. Even more impressive for the Chiefs is that they played a tough schedule without Berry, including road games at Pittsburgh and Arizona and home games against New England and Denver.

We all see Berry as being a major factor in the run game, but the run defense got better without him. In games he played in 2014, the team gave up 138.1 yards per game on the ground while only giving up 118.7 when he was out. The passing defense was the only place that the defense got slightly worse. With Berry, the team gave up 202 yards per game through the air while without him they gave up 204.2.

In a season where the roster was the same and the scheme was the same, statistics point to the defense being better without Berry. But that is just one year, so let’s look at 2011 and see how those numbers matchup.

The 2011 season is a harder one to review because he missed the entire year, so in order to compare numbers you have to use the season before and season after. Rosters and coaches changed during this time so it’s not the best comparison, but it’s still worth a look.

In 2011, the team ranked 12th in the league in points per game allowed and 11th in yards per game allowed. That is pretty respectable for a team missing one of its best players. Digging deeper shows the team was 6th against the pass and a horrible 26th against the run. On the passing side the team gave up only 201.3 yards per game while holding opposing quarterbacks to a 79.1 quarterback rating. Against the run, the Chiefs gave up a crazy 132 yards per game including 4.2 yards per carry. That is a defense that just got ran over. It’s not a wonder that team finished below at 7-9 and out of the playoffs with such a poor run defense.

The season before this was Berry’s rookie year of 2010. That season the team finished with the 11th ranked defense in points per game and 14th in yards. This defense was much more balanced finishing 17th in passing and 14th in rushing defense. The team allowed 219.9 yards per game through the air and only 110.3 on the ground. Quarterback rating dropped some to 78.1 while the yards per carry went up at 4.3 yards per carry. That team finished 10-6 and won the AFC West. They played from ahead a lot and thus despite averaging more yards per carry, offenses had to throw to come back.

Unfortunately the 2012 season was one of the worst years in franchise history. The defense finished 25th overall in points and 20th in yards per game. With Berry on the field the pass defense ranked 12th giving up 220.8 yards per game and a quarterback rating of 99.9. The run defense was even worse than it was in 2011, finishing ranked 27th. Teams ran for 135 yards per game on 4.5 yards per carry. It is no wonder that team finished 2-14 and caused Clark Hunt to clean house. That defense had Berry on the field for all 16 games.

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These statistics are the same ones people, like me, used to say why the Chiefs did not need to pay him big money in the off season. The statistics show that the defense does not get worse without Berry on the field; instead it actually gets better. So should fans be nervous about how this defense will play the rest of the season? No, they shouldn’t. History proves the defense will be fine without Berry.

There is no doubt that Berry is an emotional and vocal leader on this team. You cannot question his intensity and his heart. I personally don’t think that means a whole lot for this team with all the leaders we have, including Andy Reid. But for those of you who think it is a big factor, you are in luck because he will still be around to be that leader. Yes he’ll probably miss a few games after surgery, but once he’s recovered enough to be on the sidelines, he will be.

The play on the field won’t change and the leadership in the locker room won’t change, so everyone calm down and prepare for a fun rest of the Chiefs season!