Are the Oakland Raiders destined for a letdown season?
By Matt Conner
The Oakland Raiders won 12 games last year, but a closer look at the numbers reveals a less-dominating team than you might expect.
If you’re buying the hype, you believe there are better things in store for the Oakland Raiders this year than last year. Even after going 12-4 last year, most NFL analysts believe the team will win the division title in the AFC West this year and provide another formidable challenger to the New England Patriots for AFC supremacy.
With the signing of Derek Carr for the long-term, the presence of Khalil Mack and the newest additions of Marshawn Lynch and Jared Cook to the team’s offense, the Raiders certainly have grabbed the headlines this offseason. Meanwhile their AFC West foes have struggled. The Chiefs offseason was a confusing one, both from the inside and outside. The Broncos are still flipping a coin for starting quarterback, never a good proposition. The Chargers already have more injuries than they should. There are some good surface reasons to believe.
But buried in this week’s Monday Morning Quarterback from Peter King is a series of stats from Football Outsiders’ latest 2017 Almanac that provides a bit of perspective on the Raiders:
"The Raiders had the lowest scoring differential (plus-31) of any 12-4 team in NFL history. The other seven teams that went 12-4 with a scoring differential of plus-70 or lower averaged a 9-7 record the next year."
This means that not only did the Raiders win a lot of close games, two of them in fact were only by one point (the Saints in Week 1 and the Ravens in Week 4), but they also allowed a lot of points in general. Can the Raiders move the chains? Absolutely. Do they let opponents do the same? Yep.
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Even more, when they lose, they lose big. Despite only four losses, they were outscored by 49 total points in those games with the closest loss being a touchdown behind the Atlanta Falcons in Week 2. That’s an average of 12-plus points down per loss. Compare that to the Chiefs, who also lost four games, where half of those losses were by a combined four points (two point losses each to the Buccaneers and Titans in Weeks 11 and 15, respectively).
If the aforementioned regression to the mean happens, there will be a lot of soul-searching happening in Oakland. Perhaps it’s even the kind of letdown that could lead to some changes in a coaching staff or front office. The Raiders are hyped to the point that anything but a division title will be a disappointment. That’s unfortunate because even if they go 9-7 on the year, the reality is that they have a great young roster filled with developmental talent that should continue to grow together.