It’s too bad the Kansas City Chiefs can’t make a move for Sammy Watkins

The Buffalo Bills seem to have soured on Sammy Watkins which makes it unfortunate that the Chiefs aren’t in a position to pounce.

If only the Kansas City Chiefs could afford it.

I’m throwing this out early, because this entire column is a fruitless exercise, so caution to you, dear reader, before you invest any more time here and then wonder at the end why none of this could work out. The Chiefs, at this point, simply don’t have the money. And that’s a concern because there’s an incredible investment potentially available for someone to grab, and Kansas City has the ideal sort of roster to take that chance.

Let’s talk about this anyway. The Buffalo Bills are in an interesting position with wide receiver Sammy Watkins. Yes, it is true that the team traded an arm and a leg (an extra 1st and 4th round picks in 2015 to move up five spots in 2014, from No. 9 overall to No. 4) for the chance to draft Watkins. Yes, Watkins is also far and away the team’s most talented receiver. Yes, Watkins is still only 23-years-old despite entering his fourth NFL season.

These days, however, the Bills are under new management. Brandon Beane was recently hired as the team’s new general manager, and Sean McDermott is the new head coach, a new leadership tandem brought over from the Carolina Panthers with no official ties to Watkins and the investment made to get him. Instead of trading up, McDermott’s first big draft move was to trade back, with the Kansas City Chiefs, to land an extra first round pick. In doing so, they still grabbed a young physical corner in Tre’Davious White who should slot right where Stephon Gilmore used to play and now own the Chiefs first round pick in 2018.

All of this coalesces into an interesting scenario for any team on the outside of Buffalo looking in. The Bills have a rare asset in the NFL, a truly elite wide receiver, and they might actually be poised to move him.

Why would the Bills be inclined to move Watkins? After all, a 23-year-old top wideout on a young team looking to move forward should be an automatic lock on the roster, at least one area that the new general manager doesn’t have to worry about. In Watkins case, however, it’s not that simple. Watkins’ injury history should concern anyone—those looking in or out—given his chronic foot issues and is, even now, recovering from surgery. He missed 8 games last year and 3 the season before that. An elite wideout is only good if that elite play is seen on the field. Beane has reason to doubt moving forward.

Most recently the Bills made a significant decision regarding the future of Watkins, refusing his fifth year option which will essentially make him a free agent in 2018. The Bills would have owed $13.3 million to Watkins in 2018 had they exercised the option, but they still could have waited until next March to officially accept those charges. Unless Watkins was injured at the time, which is a legitimate possibility, the Bills could have still declined Watkins at that cost if they found it overwhelming. However, the very option at least gives them control over Watkins’ future.

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At this point, the Bills will now either wave goodbye to an asset and likely see a third round compensatory pick as their only return or they will be forced to apply the franchise tag on him in case he wows them with another excellent year, which he’s certainly done before. This year, the franchise amount for a wide receiver was $15.682 million, more than $2 million more than Watkins’ option and a total that will only climb.

All of this signals to teams on the outside that the Bills might feel as removed from Watkins as they will ever feel before he hits the open market. It’s the perfect time to strike, a la the Patriots pouncing on the fact that Brandin Cooks was somehow on the outs in New Orleans. Good teams wait for these sorts of opportunities, when planets align to lower a player’s stock, and deal accordingly. Watkins is in such a position, which means it’s unfortunate that the Chiefs aren’t in position to strike here.

If a team were to someone grab Watkins away from the Bills for this coming season, the cap hit itself would prohibit the Chiefs from making it work, not to mention the actual trade cost. For the Chiefs, they would likely have the right sort of draft asset or package of young talent to draw Watkins out of Buffalo, but his $6.3 million cap hit would prove to be too much for a team already against the cap.

This is unfortunate because paying just over $6 million for the sort of ceiling that Watkins would provide any offense is an incredible price tag, one that every team would likely gladly pay. Watkins has averaged 66.5 yards/game in his NFL career over 37 games (would equal 1,064 yards/year) with 17 career touchdowns and an average of 16.1 yards/catch. Consider the quarterback turnover and carousel of coaches and coordinators and the injury issues and you can see how Watkins shows off elite ability in bunches even as he’s limited by his own body and the ineptitude of his team.

Even more, if puts the Chiefs in the driver’s seat to retain a 23-year-old No. 1 wideout for the short- and long-term as they are also developing a rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

Consider how Watkins would fit on the Chiefs, next to the excellent all-around game and route-running of Jeremy Maclin and the incredible speed of Tyreek Hill. Watkins would give the Chiefs another player to blur past the top end of a defense and a great physical receiver who tracks the ball as well as anyone in the league. Even more, if puts the Chiefs in the driver’s seat to retain a 23-year-old No. 1 wideout for the short- and long-term as they are also developing a rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In coming years, the money to pay Watkins will be there as veterans like Alex Smith, Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali and more come off the books. It’s just too bad they can’t afford to get him here.

Grabbing Watkins would be risky for sure and there are no guarantees in the NFL, but consider how the Browns continue to remain somewhat committed to Josh Gordon even years after his last NFL snap. You simply don’t let go of a top-tier wideout. They’re so few and far between that you maintain a hold for as long as you can and accept the risk that comes with it. The Bills, however, seem to have a relaxed grip at this point, which means that teams should be at least calling to see what it would take to pry Watkins away.

If only the Chiefs could afford to be one of those teams.