Setting The Odds For The Kansas City Chiefs Quarterbacks

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Jan 4, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith (11) looks to the sidelines during the first quarter of the 2013 AFC wild card playoff football game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports


Contract: 1 year remaining for $8 million, free agent after 2014 season

Odds For 2015 Roster: 80%

Money aside, Smith seems to be Andy Reid’s guy. And because he is Reid’s guy that makes him John Dorsey’s guy, too.

Now, both Reid and Dorsey realize there is an element of value involved here. Overpaying Smith to stay in Kansas City would be a bad move, worse than giving up two second round picks and getting “only” two years of quality production. Overpaying Smith puts a great deal of strain on what a team can do to build their roster. Kansas City needs more than just a good quarterback to win a Super Bowl, which has been demonstrated by the last two Super Bowl champions.

What does a fair deal for Smith look like? I’m not certain. What matter’s most is Smith’s contract is structured in such a way that they can get the cap space they need to build a roster and so they can bail on Smith should Murray or another young quarterback develop into a franchise-type quarterback.

Unless, Smith asks for the moon – which is entirely possible – he will be back in Kansas City. One would imagine the Chiefs will be willing to move a small mountain to make sure Smith stays in Kansas City for at least two more years.