After a productive free agency period the general feeling is that the Kansas City Chiefs should be improved on offense.
But how much will they improve?
On this lazy Friday, I thought it would be fun to do a little number crunching with Pro Football Focus grades. What I’ve done is taken the Chiefs’ 2011 PFF grades and replaced certain players with the free agents or returning starters that figure to replace them in 2012. This is by no means scientific. It does not account for player improvement or the addition of draft picks. It also assumes that all the non-replaced players will perform exactly as they did in 2011 and that players returning from injury will perform exactly as they did in 2010. Performances can vary greatly from year to year. For instance, in 2010, Peyton Hillis had a grade over +20 but in 2011, he only received a +2.4. Thus, by this system, he brings a +2.4 to KC’s offense in 2012.
Basically, we’re looking at what the Chiefs offense would have looked like in 2011 with the free agents they picked up for 2012. We then add in the players returning from injury and we might get a glimpse of what KC’s grade could be at the end of 2012.
Let’s do it.
Chiefs overall 2011 offensive grade: -61.8
What the Chiefs lose:
RT Barry Richardson -39.1
1TE Leonard Pope -18.36
2TE O’Connell/Becht -10.1
RB Jackie Battle +5.2
RB Thomas Jones -5.0
C Casey Wiegmann +4.6
QB Cassel/Palko/Becht -17.4
By removing these grades, the Chiefs overall offensive grade for 2011 is -18.36
Replace them with:
T Eric Winston +9.1
TE Tony Moeaki +9.4
TE Kevin Boss -6.0
RB Jamaal Charles +25.7
RB Peyton +2.4
C Rodney Hudson 0.0 (neutral unknown)
QB Matt Cassel -2.5 (circa 2010)*
*Cassel’s individual rating in 2011 was -2.4, in line with his entire 2010 grade. Palko really brought things down with his -14.7.
The replacements bring a grade of +38.1.
Adding that to the non-replaced 2011 offensive team, the 2012 Chiefs offense projects to have an overall grade of +19.74.
By comparison, the 2010 Chiefs offense had an offensive grade of +6.9.
What do you think Addicts? How much better will the Chiefs offense be in 2012?