In the final days leading up to the 2026 NFL Draft, there is endless speculation about what might happen. Some of those rumors (via Todd McShay and others) have the Kansas City Chiefs intent on trading up in the top ten, with specific mentions of the Arizona Cardinals, who currently have the #3 overall pick. Per the rumors, the Cardinals want to move back and pick up extra picks, and the Chiefs are interested in moving up to secure an elite prospect that might be out of their current range. Both make sense. However, the price associated with such a move up is simply too steep.Â
Just how steep a move from pick #9 up to pick #3 would be depends on which of the two best-known trade charts you use. Determining the trade value of draft picks is an inexact science. It can vary a lot from year to year depending on the draft class and demand for a pick. However, the two best-known models are the original one often associated with the old Dallas Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson and a more recent chart developed by Rich Hill.
What would a major trade up in the 2026 NFL Draft cost the Chiefs?
Using the old Jimmy Johnson model, the Cardinals' #3 pick would be worth 2,200 points and KC's #9 pick would be worth just 1,350 points. In order to get anywhere close to matching totals, it would take something like the following.
- Arizona gives up the #3 overall pick (2,200 points)
- Kansas City's gives up the #9 overall (1,350 points), #29 overall (640 points), and #74 overall (220 points)
That deal would put the Chiefs' side at 2,210 points. So the Chiefs would give up the #9 pick, their other first-round pick at #29, AND their 3rd-round pick #74 and would be just 10 points over the value of the Cardinals' top pick. That is just way too steep of a cost for anyone that KC might be targeting at the 3rd pick. Even if the Cardinals were willing to take one of KC's 2027 3rd-round picks instead of #74, it is still too much to give up.
If you use the more modern Rich Hill model, it is a little more reasonable for the Chiefs. Here is an example of a pretty even deal using this chart:
- Arizona gives up the #3 overall pick (514 points) and the #104 overall in the 4th round (33 points)
- Kansas City gives up the #9 overall pick (387 points), #40 overall (149 points), and #169 overall in the 5th round (9 points)
That deal comes out as Arizona giving up 547 points and the Chiefs giving up 545 points. So the Chiefs are basically giving up the #40 pick in order to move from #9 up to #3 overall and then also moving from the back half of the 5th round up to the early 4th round. I still don't love the fact that the Chiefs are giving up one of their top 40 picks when they have several positions where they need a talented prospect in this draft, but at least this deal seems reasonable compared to the one based off of the old Jimmy Johnson chart.
It would be a huge mistake for the Chiefs to overpay using the first model in this particular draft. If they were a team moving from #9 to #3 to draft their future franchise quarterback, then that changes the equation. Back in 2021, the San Francisco 49ers traded with the Miami Dolphins to go from pick #12 up to #3 overall to draft Trey Lance. They gave up the #12 pick, their 1st- and 3rd-round picks the following year, and then a third 1st-round pick in 2023. So three 1st-round picks and a 3rd to move up just three more spots than KC would be moving. You can be sure that Arizona is starting trade talks with that kind of steep cost, but there just isn't anyone worth paying that premium for in this draft class.
Who would the Chiefs be trading up to get?
If the Chiefs are considering trading up to #3 overall, it pretty much has to be for one of the top pass rushers in this class. Ohio State's Arvell Reese might be worth trading up for because of his freakish ability to play both linebacker and edge, but he is the most likely pick for the New York Jets at #2 overall and since he doesn't fit Steve Spagnuolo's edge profile, the Chiefs would have to have a special plan in place for how to use him to make him worth the expense of trading up.
Another option could be David Bailey of Texas Tech. Bailey is the most proven and most explosive traditional outside pass rusher in this draft class. The Chiefs could certainly use his pass rush upside, but again, he doesn't fit a typical Steve Spagnuolo defensive end because he doesn't have the size and run-stopping ability that he looks for. So the Chiefs would be trading up for a profile that Spags hasn't really wanted in the past.
Finally, the best-fitting edge player for KC's system is Rueben Bain Jr. He's a power rusher who was incredibly prolific in college but has freakishly short arms for an NFL edge player. Most believe he probably won't be an elite pass rusher in the NFL, but can stay on the field for all three downs and will still regularly affect the quarterback by pushing his lineman back into the quarterback. I love Rueben Bain and would be on cloud nine if KC drafted him at #9, but giving up #40 overall to draft him would take some of the excitement away, especially with a recently revealed reckless driving incident that feels like a tough sell in Kansas City coming off the Rashee Rice situation.
So there are pass rushers that are predicted to go in that range that could give KC's defense a much-needed top player opposite George Karlaftis, but are any of them worth giving up the #40 (let alone #29) overall to move up and get? I'm not so sure about that. However, if you were to switch the trade destination to #6 overall with the Cleveland Browns and use the Rich Hill chart, you could move up with just KC's 3rd-round #74 overall. You might even be able to get that pick for one of your 2027 3rd-round picks and a 4th- or 5th-round pick this year. Regardless, one of those deals would allow the Chiefs to move up while keeping their other top 40 picks in place.
So what do you think, Chiefs fans? Do you think there is a player in this draft class worth giving up #29 or #40 in order to move up and draft? Would you rather the Chiefs aggressively pursue an elite player that they won't be in range to draft again anytime soon or sit back and see who falls to them? Personally, I like when Brett Veach is aggressive and goes to get his guy, but the potential cost to move all the way up to #3 overall feels too steep considering all of the spots on the roster where the Chiefs could use a new talented player.
Add us as a preferred source on Google