The Week 18 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos holds vastly different significance for each team. While one has already secured its playoff position, the other's postseason hopes hang in the balance of this regular season finale.
The Chiefs have locked up the #1 seed in the AFC, guaranteeing both a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Broncos, amid a two-game losing streak, need just one win to claim the AFC's #7 seed.
Denver's destiny?
Denver's path to the playoffs is clear: Win and they're in. A victory over the Chiefs' backups would secure them a date with the Buffalo Bills in the following week. Should they falter against the Fighting Carson Wentz's, they'll need both the Dolphins and Bengals to lose or tie their final games. A Broncos loss coupled with a Dolphins win puts Miami in the playoffs, while a scenario where both Denver and Miami lose but Cincinnati wins would send the Bengals to the postseason. With Cincinnati playing on Saturday, the situation will become clearer by Sunday afternoon.
What's behind the Broncos' recent two-game skid? While multiple factors contribute, the primary issue has been their defense not living up to their elite status. Though Denver ranks in the Top 5 for points allowed per game this season, they've surrendered 64 points across their last two contests, allowing an average of 439.5 yards per game against the Chargers and Bengals. Their offense hasn't been able to compensate for this defensive regression. Despite these struggles, they had chances in both games, leading Los Angeles by 11 in the third quarter and having multiple opportunities to bury Cincinnati late in the game.
To be direct: losing this game would be the Broncos' most humiliating defeat in recent memory. While the final scoreboard might not be on the level of past blowouts, they're facing a Chiefs team composed mostly of backups. Instead of Patrick Mahomes, they'll face Carson Wentz. Rather than Isiah Pacheco or Kareem Hunt, they'll see Carson Steele. Swayze Bozeman will play in place of Nick Bolton, and several backup offensive linemen will take the field. Given that Denver is playing their starters, this should be their game to lose.
For the Chiefs, this game has no impact on their playoff positioning. A win, loss, or tie yields the exact same result: they remain the #1 seed in the AFC with a guaranteed bye during Wild Card weekend.
Chiefs should stay competitive
While some members of Chiefs Kingdom have suggested deliberately losing to prevent the Bengals from making the playoffs, this idea is not best one for several reasons.
Intentionally losing an NFL game would create significant problems that far outweigh any potential benefits. Without delving into specifics, it's not a path Kansas City should consider. There's a clear difference between resting key players and intentionally losing a game. Regardless of who takes the field, the players and coaches should be trying to win.
Kansas City's secure playoff position shouldn't reduce their drive to reach 16-1. The active players must maintain their competitive fire.
Given the limited roster size, only a select group of players can rest. It's mathematically impossible to sit every starter. Those likely to sit out Sunday include star players like Mahomes, Kelce, and McDuffie, along with anyone nursing injuries. Many regular starters will still see action, albeit some in limited roles.
Every Chief who takes the field is also effectively auditioning for a future role, whether in Kansas City or elsewhere. Most NFL players fight for their roster spots season after season. For many, this game represents their best opportunity to showcase their abilities.
Cincy should not matter
In addition, the Chiefs shouldn't focus on whether Cincinnati makes the playoffs. Yes, the Bengals are the only team to defeat Kansas City in the playoffs over the past 3.5 years, but they're not the powerhouse they once were. Their offense remains elite, but their defense has been a tire fire this season. While Cincinnati gave Kansas City a fight in Week 2, much of that stemmed from the instability at left tackle. The signing of D.J. Humphries and Joe Thuney's shift to left tackle should better contain Trey Hendrickson compared to their September matchup.
Also, the Bengals no longer hold a psychological advantage over the Chiefs. Kansas City has won the last two matchups against them (with Joe Burrow), including the 2022-23 AFC Championship Game. Consider this: if Cincinnati somehow reaches Arrowhead in the Divisional Round, it would mean they've eliminated Buffalo – widely considered Kansas City's biggest threat to another Super Bowl trip.
With multiple weeks of rest and preparation time, the Chiefs will be ready for any potential matchup in the Divisional Round, including Cincinnati. This isn't advocating for Chiefs fans to support a Bengals playoff berth, but rather arguing against intentionally losing this weekend.
Sunday's outcome is ultimately inconsequential for Kansas City. The true victory will be maintaining health. It's a win-win scenario: either they beat Denver and likely eliminate their division rivals from playoff contention, or they witness Joe Burrow miss the playoffs for a second consecutive season.
The Chiefs are in uncharted waters as they attempt to become the first team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. This Week 18 matchup is peanuts in comparison. While Chiefs fans will closely follow this game, largely because it's the team's only action until mid-January, its significance is limited. A win would rank among the franchise's most bizarre recent wins in recent memory, while a loss carries no meaningful consequences as they move onto the postseason.