The Kansas City Chiefs are the top seed in the AFC this season. Thanks to locking up that top seed early, they have earned the right to decide who needs more reps and who needs to be rested in their week 18 matchup with the Denver Broncos. Since we already know that Patrick Mahomes is one of those players that KC will rest, we now have his final 2024 regular season numbers to look at. So I thought it would be interesting to see how they stack up with his numbers last season.
If you're reading this piece on a Chiefs blog you're already well aware that last season Mahomes struggled through an uninspiring regular season and then turned things on in the playoffs and helped lead the Chiefs to a second consecutive Super Bowl. That Super Bowl win wiped a lot of the frustrations of the regular season away. Things like frustrating wide receiver drops and close losses where the offense couldn't find a rhythm were suddenly just a part of the Mahomes lore as KC cemented a true NFL dynasty.
This season has seen a mixture of similarities and differences from last season. The lack of wide receiver production early on was eerily similar, as were some of the low-scoring/low-productivity offensive performances. The difference this year was that K.C. consistently found ways to win those close games. Is that because Mahomes played better? Let's see what the numbers say.
Patrick Mahomes Passing Statistics for 2023 and 2024
Games Played:
- 2023 - 16
- 2024 - 16
Completion Percentage:
- 2023 - 401 of 597 - 67.2%
- 2024 - 392 of 581 - 67.5%
Passing Yards:
- 2023 - 4,183 (261.4 per game)
- 2024 - 3,928 (245.5 per game)
Yards Per Attempt:
- 2023 - 7.0
- 2024 - 6.8
Air Yards Per Attempt:
- 2023 - 6.86
- 2024 - 6.80
Yards Per Completion:
- 2023 - 10.4
- 2024 - 10.0
KC Yards After Catch:
- 2023 - 2,552 (159.5 per game)
- 2024 - 2,300 (143.7 per game)
Touchdown Passes:
- 2023 - 27
- 2024 - 26
Interceptions:
- 2023 - 14
- 2023 - 11
Times Sacked:
- 2023 - 27
- 2024 - 36
Game Winning Drives:
- 2023 - 2
- 2024 - 7
In very simple terms, Patrick Mahomes numbers in 2023 and 2024 were incredibly similar in the major categories. Games played, yards, yards per game, completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions are all very close by NFL standards. However, there are a few interesting diffenences to point out.
Patrick Mahomes averaged 15.9 passing yards per game less this season. It seems worth noting that K.C.'s skill players averaged 15.75 fewer yards after catch (YAC) per game this season. That's pretty incredible that the only difference in Mahomes passing yards per game was the exact drop in YAC by his targets. That drop can be explained by the loss of Rashee Rice who is a standout in that area and the continued decline of Travis Kelce in that area.
Mahomes was also sacked significantly more throughout the season. The difference between 27 and 36 is enough that he was 27th in sacks last season and this year is 11th at the time I'm writing this. However, no area was more drastically different than the number of game-winning drives in the regular season. Mahomes had 2 last year and that number was over three times larger this year as he is tops in the NFL with 7.
Mahomes was largely the same quarterback this season as he was last year. He was just sacked a few more times and had fewer YAC from his receivers, but far more game-winning drives. So now the real question is can Mahomes have the same postseason success that he did last season after putting up similar regular season numbers?
Is there reason to believe Mahomes will have another great postseason?
I should probably start by saying, of course, there is reason to believe he'll have a great postseason. He's Patrick Mahomes. However, let's go a little deeper than that. While we should give him the benefit of the doubt until he gives us a reason not to, there are also statistical signs that Mahomes is poised to put up big numbers in the playoffs.
First off, while Mahomes was sacked significantly more in the regular season this year, the Chiefs seemed to clean that problem up over Mahomes' final three games. When Kansas City moved Joe Thuney to left tackle and gave him a little extra help with chips and the play calling, those sacks allowed numbers to plummet. Despite going up against Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, and a Houston Texans team that is 3rd in the NFL in sacks, the Chiefs only allowed one sack over their final three games with Mahomes at the helm.
That improved protection isn't the only reason to believe. Marquise "Hollywood" Brown returned from a preseason injury in time for Mahomes' final two starts and his return combined with the continued improvement from rookie Xavier Worthy (along with the improved pass protection) caused a huge bump in the passing productivity. I wrote just last week that Mahomes finally has a frightening amount of weapons at his disposal.
It's only a two-game sample size but since Brown's return, Mahomes has averaged 290 passing yards per game with a 72.2% completion rate and an average of 7.3 yards/attempt with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Those performances came against two AFC playoff teams with good defenses. The Texans have only allowed 199.3 passing yards per game and the Steelers are averaging 229.5 passing yards per game allowed. Mahomes crushed those averages with his improved weapons and improved protection.
The numbers tell the story: Patrick Mahomes was more clutch this season while being sacked more often and getting less YAC from his receivers as compared to last season. Otherwise, his numbers were eerily similar to last year, when Mahomes then turned things on in the playoffs and won another Super Bowl. On top of that, his final 2-3 starts point towards him already rounding into playoff form.
In other words, the NFL should be very worried that Patrick Mahomes is poised to write another chapter in his already legendary story and might just lead the Kansas City Chiefs to the NFL's first-ever Super Bowl three-peat.