Vegas treats Chiefs disaster like it never happened

It's as if the Kansas City Chiefs never fell apart last season.

Over/under win totals are coming out for the 2026 campaign, and the Chiefs are once again ranked alongside the franchises that enjoyed strong success in 2025. Draft Kings has Kansas City pegged at 10.5 victories next year, which ties them for the most optimistic projections ahead of a new season.

Specifically, the Chiefs are listed alongside the typical list of contenders in the AFC, which shows that most analysts or oddsmakers view the 2025 season as a sort of anomaly. That's not to say there aren't changes, but the fact that K.C. is joined by the Baltimore Ravens at 10.5 wins for '25 is a sign that Vegas looks at the quarterback position first and foremost.

The over/under win totals are out for 2026, and oddsmakers are treating the Chiefs like the reigning champs they used to be.

Others tied with the Chiefs, besides the Ravens, include the Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers, and the New England Patriots, who were this season's conference champs.

One year after the AFC West was twisted enough for the Chiefs to land in third place overall, the reigning division champs, the Denver Broncos, still haven't earned the benefit of the doubt that they'll repeat in 2025. Denver is listed on the next tier of teams at 9.5 wins. There is, however, a consistent belief in the Las Vegas Raiders' inability to do anything but lose games, as they've been given a 5.5 over/under win total.

Before the 2025 season, the Chiefs' over/under win projections came in at 11.5, per Bet MGM. They had the same totals before the 2024 campaign. The mercurial nature of Kansas City's record in the last two years shows just how much the pendulum can really swing, since '24 total came in 3.5 games lower than their 15-win season, while the '25 predictions were 5.5 wins higher than their final 6-11 record.

For now, it's clear that Vegas oddsmakers maintain a fierce belief in Patrick Mahomes and his ability to return to the postseason after a shocking collapse in 2025. The Chiefs have earned that much after playing in five Super Bowls in a six-year span. However, the very real roster concerns facing K.C. this offseason also show that clouds are on the horizon, and it's quite possible that such projections reflect the last vestiges of faith for a franchise that's ruled the NFL for years.