For two years now, the dialogue around Chiefs training camp—and the entire Chiefs offense—has been the need for more explosive plays.
Per Next Gen Stats, Patrick Mahomes ranked 33rd in the NFL in the percentage of pass attempts that traveled more than 20 yards downfield (by air yards). The Chiefs were tied for 24th with the Carolina Panthers with 5.1 yards per play. Among qualified passers, Patrick Mahomes ranked 25th out of 26 in ADOT (average depth of target). The stats go on and on about the need for the Chiefs' offense to get back to generating explosive plays.
The lack of explosiveness is easy to explain away due to injuries and personnel over the last two years. The hope is that an improved tackle situation combined with a healthy Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown will take this offense where it wants to go. However, there's a dirty little secret about the Chiefs defense that isn't getting talked about enough.
Last year, the Chiefs ranked 23rd in 20+ yard completions allowed with 52. They ranked 27th in 40+ yard completions. Both numbers are among the worst rates in the league, alongside some of the worst defenses (Panthers, Bengals, and Jaguars). While the Chiefs have been predominantly a defensive team the last two seasons, and have ranked top 10 in yards allowed and top 5 in points allowed, the defense has a problem with explosive passes allowed.
While the offense's need for explosive plays has a path to improvement with changes on the horizon, the defense might have more questions than answers. The Chiefs' coverage unit last year struggled once it lost Jaylen Watson, and they never had a great answer in the slot. Chamarri Conner allowed 435 yards and 3 touchdowns from the slot last year, and a staggering +11.2 EPA/play, per Next Gen Stats.
After two years of offensive struggles for explosive plays, Kansas City’s defense now faces its own glaring gap in pass coverage.
This same coverage unit is now relying on a second-year fourth-round pick, Jaden Hicks, to be the lead safety to fill the very large role that Justin Reid vacated. Additionally, the encouraging signing of Kristian Fulton to move Trent McDuffie back to the slot corner role gets more discouraging every day as Fulton remains on the PUP list.
Another avenue to limiting explosive plays is by generating quick pressures. The Chiefs ranked 12th in time to pressure and 19th in sacks, despite having the 4th highest blitz rate. The defense had to blitz to generate pressure, and when that happens, it leaves the unit more susceptible to big plays.
The Chiefs also lost their second-leading sack getter in Tershawn Wharton this offseason to the Carolina Panthers. The hope is that a full, healthy season from Charles Omenihu, more development from Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and rookie Ashton Gillotte can turn the sack numbers around.
It's always hard watching training camp highlights. Sure, it's exciting to see Patrick Mahomes drop a deep ball into the hands of Xavier Worthy 45 yards downfield. The only problem is, it's the Chiefs defense being beat. Considering that both the offense and defense struggled with explosive pass plays last year, it's weakness against weakness right now.
Chiefs Kingdom won't really know if either unit improves in this area until the season begins and we see it in action—particularly the offense, which spent all camp last year saying and doing similar things about explosive pass plays, only for the wheels to fall off again.
While there are plenty of concerns to be had about the Chiefs' defense, there's also a visible path to improvement. If Fulton can get healthy, you instantly have two good cover corners on the outside and the league's best slot defender, backed up by experienced corners in Williams and Johnson and a promising rookie in Nohl Williams.
The safety room might have better depth this year with Bryan Cook a full year removed from his injury, Mike Edwards back as a veteran presence, Conner moving into a full-time safety role, and Jaden Hicks playing more. The defensive line is younger and more explosive, and it feels like Chris Jones will bounce back from a 5-sack season last year.
The most likely avenue to improvement for both units will be health and consistency. If the Chiefs' offense can just get to the middle of the pack in explosive plays and the defense can limit just a few more big plays, the two units will complement one another better.
Over the last two years, the defense hasn't had a large margin for error with the offense being limited. On the other side of the coin, the offense would be able to overcome more defensive lapses if it could win a shootout-style game. All eyes are downfield for 2025.