If there is one thing that the bye week will make you do, it's overanalyze what has happened thus far in any given football season. Are we actually good, even though our record may not show that? Could things be worse? How cooked are we? Those questions are subjective to each fanbase and team, but some are certainly in a position to ask more questions than others. It's certainly not a stretch to say that, at the very least, there's without question a shroud of mystery hovering over the Kansas City Chiefs’ 5-4 start leading into their bye week.
The mentally healthy version of myself classifies the discourse that fills the bye week void as "whistling in the dark", particularly when things seem grim for your team. We take the evidence we've been presented so far and try to fill the space with a projection of what we think could happen next, attempting to predict the future based off what we've seen in the past. It can be disconcerting and all-too-consuming, but also can be comforting—like whistling in the dark. Ultimately, do we know what's going to happen? No. Is it fun to try to figure it out and either pump ourselves up or piss ourselves off in the process? Sometimes, yes
The mystery from the Chiefs’ first half can be summed up with one generalized question: Who the hell is this team? We have seen flashes of “offensive juggernaut” and “iron curtain defense” in the first nine games, while at the same time wondering if either unit had ever practiced together before taking the field in other instances. The Chiefs’ defensive line has hammered teams like Baltimore and Detroit, then looked like they had all signed practice squad contracts with Buffalo in their most recent performance.
The same can be said for the offense, but for much different reasons. The 0-2 start can be attributed largely to the absence of Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. The wide receiving corps that was once gutted is now an undeniable strength. But when receiver availability turns back into a strength, offensive line and running back injuries take away a Chiefs rushing attack that was, from Weeks 3 through 8, at times punishing. It was minimally effective. Now the Chiefs face numerous questions surrounding the health and availability of players like Jawaan Taylor, Josh Simmons, Jaylon Moore, and Isiah Pacheco that could have a very real impact on how the team fares in the second half of 2025.
There are very few guarantees in the NFL, outside of the fact that the games will indeed be played. If the Chiefs were coming into the home stretch of the 2025 season 8-1 or 7-2, there would be a little less urgency sensed with them remaining eight games. 5-4 makes this a tense affair, especially when current playoff graphics have the Chiefs “In the Hunt” rather than where they've become accustomed to being—in the driver's seat. Let's look at two very different, but very real, scenarios for how the rest of this season plays out.
The Worst of Times
The fact that the Chiefs are 5-4 heading into the back half of the 2025 season is both concerning and not really all that concerning. They've kept themselves in the “puncher's chance” category while battling through injuries, suspensions, and personal leave absences from some pretty critical pieces—particularly on the offensive side of the ball. There's been this silent assumption that at some point this season the Chiefs will eventually right the ship and climb back toward the top of the AFC, maybe even win the AFC West once more, right?
What if they don't? There is a distinct recipe for disaster for the Chiefs in the final eight games of the season, and it starts with their division opponents. Right out of the gates, the Chiefs will face the Broncos in Denver in Week 11. There has been much ado about the Broncos’ offensive struggles of late, particularly after a lackluster 10-7 win over the already-buried Raiders, but what have the Broncos done all year long? They've won. Whether it be tight games or ugly, knockdown battles, the Broncos are 8-2. There is a lot of the “2024 Chiefs” energy in Denver this year with the way they are rattling off one-score wins, even if they are playing down to their competition.
What is one of Denver's greatest strengths? Its offensive and defensive fronts. What has been the Achilles’ heel of Kansas City in its losses this season? That's right—they have been soft in the trenches. There's a very real scenario in play where the Broncos just punch the Chiefs in the mouth coming out of the bye week and knock them to 5-5. From there the Chiefs have the Colts, the Cowboys in Dallas, the Texans, and the Chargers. Now, this stretch isn't the most daunting one you could cook up, but it becomes a little more tense when there is zero margin for error.
If Kansas City were to lose to Denver, it'd be 3.5 games back in the AFC West with 7 games to play. It's not impossible to think that they could rise above this deficit and still take the West, but it's very, very much a pipe dream. If the Chiefs aren't perfect in the division the rest of the way (2 games against the Broncos and 1 more each against the Chargers and Raiders), they could find themselves sitting around 9-8 or 10-7 and on the outside of the playoff picture altogether.
Injuries and inconsistent play for the offensive and defensive line will almost guarantee this outcome if certain trends continue. Chris Jones and Charles Omenihu, two of the most outspoken of the Chiefs’ defensive front, need to step up in a big way in the back half of the 2025 season. The offensive line would be stabilized by the return of Josh Simmons, assuming he's in shape, and more so by the return of Jawaan Taylor and having Jaylon Moore as a healthy swing option. Having Wanya Morris on the field is a recipe for disaster, especially against some of the defensive fronts KC will face down the stretch.
The Best of Times
Directly above this paragraph, you will find a photograph of Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is a very good football player. He's also potentially more petty than he is talented, which could create quite a chip on his shoulder after hearing everything that he's (surely) heard over the course of the last two weeks since the team's 28-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills.
Yes, the haters have been hating. The doubters have been doubting. The trolls have been trolling and the naysayers have been saying nay. What kind of build-up do we all think this is creating in Patrick Mahomes' mind? He's a psychopath-level competitor, so he can obviously intrinsically motivate himself—what on Earth would make those who want to see the Chiefs’ demise provide external motivation to a madman like this?
We've seen glimpses already this season from Weeks 3 through 8—this version of the Chiefs offense can flat-out fly. Rashee Rice, when used properly and not thinly veiled as he was in the Buffalo game, is one of the most lethal offensive weapons in the NFL. Xavier Worthy can escape for 30-yard chunks at a moment's notice, and Hollywood Brown and Tyquan Thornton represent the best 3-4 combo in the wide receiving corps that Kansas City has likely ever seen.
If the Chiefs’ offensive line can lick its wounds and get most of its personnel back on the field, and the running game can continue to evolve with more touches for Brashard Smith as Isiah Pacheco recovers from a knee injury, this could be a horrifying offense for opposing defensive coordinators to try to contain. If Mahomes shows that the Buffalo game was more of a symptom of gamesmanship by the Chiefs staff than it was a true barometer of where the offense is, we could be in business.
I've said this before, but I am fairly confident now that we have indeed seen the last loss of the season for this Chiefs team. The bye week came at the perfect time, and if we're going to sit here and act like Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo didn't have at least some intent behind the catastrophically bland showing the team had in Buffalo, then I think we'd all be ignoring some historical precedents. If the offensive line can get play up to their potential, there's nothing scary left about the Chiefs’ remaining opponents. Are we really going to bat an eye at Daniel Jones, Bo Nix, C.J. Stroud, or Justin Herbert in Arrowhead in mid-December?
Chalk it up to false bravado if you'd like, but we've legitimately seen what this team can do. There is not an opponent left on the schedule that can match that. A 13-4 finishing mark is still very much a reality, and along with that, I would expect another AFC West title and maybe, just maybe, a couple of home playoff games as well.