Texans vs Chiefs predictions: Writer picks for the AFC Divisional Round game

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Fire up the grill, break out the hand warmers, and stock up on the game day snacks. The Kansas City Chiefs are finally set to kick off their march back to the Super Bowl.

The Houston Texans present the first hurdle for the defending two-time champions, representing one of the many offseason darlings pundits who wondered if Kansas City could overcome when it mattered most. It already happened once this season; why not two times just for good measure?

The Texans are hitting the road, bound for Arrowhead Stadium, and that fact could greatly influence Saturday's matchup. Houston is 5-4 on the road this season, while Kansas City is 8-0 in what will be a chilly home setting. Kansas City is no stranger to tundra-like temperatures in the playoffs, adding yet another layer to the home-field advantage that is Arrowhead.

How does our group of writers think Kansas City will perform against Houston? Will the Texans stun the world in an upset victory, or will it be business as usual for the Chiefs? Let's find out.

Patrick Allen
I was surprised that the Texans took down the Chargers in the Wild Card round considering how both teams were playing heading into the matchup. The Texans struggled in a lot of areas, but their strength—their defense—flummoxed Justin Herbert. That game should stand as a reminder to the Chiefs not to take Houston lightly, despite handling the Texans 27-19 just a few weeks ago. The margin could be even wider this time, as Houston won't have the ammo to keep up with a rested, healthy, and well-prepared playoff version of the Chiefs.
Chiefs 33, Texans 20

Price Carter
The Texans turned the ball over more last week than they scored offensive touchdowns. That includes getting four turnovers from the Chargers and a blocked kick. The Chiefs will play a much cleaner brand of football—the exact opposite of the Chargers offense which is heavily reliant upon one receiver. The only way I see this game being a nailbiter is if the pass rush wreaks havoc.
Chiefs 28, Texans 17

Matt Conner
The Texans are still the bright young team on the rise, and they’ll make plenty of noise in the years to come, but K.C.’s previous experience against them and rested roster should take care of the Divisional Round fairly easily. Don’t be swayed by the Texans’ performance last week. The Chiefs are a complete team on a whole other level.
Chiefs 28, Texans 20

Lyle Graversen
The Texans' final score last weekend looked impressive, but the Chargers' offense melting down had a lot to do with that. I think we see a fired-up Patrick Mahomes and the best version of the Chiefs on Saturday. The Texans keep it respectable, but the Chiefs make it clear they're still the team to beat in the AFC.
Chiefs 27, Texans 16

Felix Johnson
Patrick Mahomes is undefeated in the Divisional Round and the Chiefs' offense is rolling. It’s the playoffs and it’s the routine. Sure, Houston’s defense is elite but the Chiefs are elite-r, if that is even possible. Stroud struggled against this same defense just a few weeks ago. Expect the same.
Chiefs 31, Texans 21

Jacob Milham
There has been plenty of insightful, nuanced analysis of this game. There will be more no matter the outcome too. But how foolish would it be to doubt the Chiefs heading into this matchup? Houston, to their credit, bested a solid Chargers squad, but Los Angeles beat themselves more than anything. Kansas City doesn't do that in the playoffs. Andy Reid has had weeks to cook things up for this matchup, and the Chiefs already had a good look at the Texans less than a month ago. Call me crazy, but I believe this is the Chiefs' statement victory that fans have been waiting for throughout the regular season.
Chiefs 34, Texans 20

Greg Morse
I think the Houston Texans might be more surprising than people realize. They, along with the Commanders in the NFC, are officially playing with house money. Iwouldn’tbe surprised to see them go “all out” to try and steal a win. But ultimately it justwon’tbe enough. The Chiefs will score more than 30 points for the first time all year when it finally matters.
Chiefs 31, Texans 20

Shawn O'Brate
The Chiefs are going to have to put all of it together for the first real test of the season. Houston’s defense is legit and ultimately healthy, which is scary, and I’ve never been a big fan of resting players for nearly three weeks before a playoff game. However, this team and this coaching staff know how to keep their heads and bodies right. With that said, I think some early hiccups make Houston look good (or the Chiefs look bad), but eventually Mahomes will find those little magical moments with Kelce or Hopkins. I also think Xavier Worthy gets a few deep shots and a few jet sweep opportunities that keep the Texans on their toes. Overall, another solid postseason game for Mahomes and company, putting up over 200 yards through the air with a couple of touchdowns.
Chiefs 28, Texans 20

Lucas Strozinsky
As weird as it is to say, the Chiefs are as healthy as they've been this season. Assuming Jaylen Watson plays, they'll have all of their key starters on defense playing together for the first time all year. As long as the Chiefs aren't careless with the ball on offense, they have no business losing games, but anything can happen on Divisional Weekend.
Chiefs 31, Texans 23

Stacy D. Smith
The Kansas City Chiefs officially embark on their quest for a three-peat when they host the Houston Texans on Saturday. The two teams last met in a Week 16 game in Arrowhead (a 27-19 victory for Kansas City). Unfortunately for the Texans, they won't have talented wide receiver Tank Dell at their disposal this time. Kansas City is an 8-point favorite in this Divisional Round matchup as they've acquitted themselves as the more complete team. The Chiefs come in well-rested and have historically been a tough out with extra time to prepare. Patrick Mahomes will have an efficient three-touchdown day, Kareem Hunt amasses 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, and Kansas City's defense forces a pair of C.J. Stroud turnovers. The Chiefs advance to the AFC Championship Game with a win over the Texans.
Chiefs 24, Houston 17

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