For all of the games labeled important over the last several weeks, for all of the high-profile matchups that have gone down, for all of the primetime affairs that have featured the Kansas City Chiefs, the ones that matter most are the ones right in front of them.
As the Houston Texans are set to visit Arrowhead Stadium in Week 14, the stakes have never been higher for K.C. in a non-playoff setting. That's not because of anything that Texans represent, although there is some level of importance based on their own position in the AFC playoff chase. Rather, the Chiefs have reached a do-or-die moment for the first time in Patrick Mahomes' tenure as starting quarterback.
If the Chiefs do not win on Sunday against the Texans, they're pretty much finished. That much might already be true, but a loss would most certainly implode their postseason hopes. In fact, the Chiefs need to run the table to finish where they will likely need to in a competitive AFC race that has K.C. sitting at No. 10 overall for 7 spots.
Of course, there's still a lot of football left to be played and anything can still happen. But the Broncos are up four games in the AFC West with five to play, so that's out of reach. Several other contenders already own the tiebreaking edge given their previous wins over Kansas City this season—e.g. the Jacksonville Jaguars, the L.A. Chargers, the Buffalo Bills.
Can the Chiefs get the best of the Texans? Andy Reid certainly thinks his team will be okay in the end. What about our contributors? Here are our predictions for the Texans-Chiefs game in Week 14.
Our writers' predictions are in for a do-or-die showdown on Sunday Night Football between the Texans and Chiefs.
Christian Ainsworth
The road ends here for what was a very dominant Chiefs run. The absence of KC's starting offensive linemen leaves Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter to feast on an over-relied-upon Mahomes. Texans 23, Chiefs 21
Price Carter
The only Chief who is getting the benefit of the doubt at this point wears #15 in red and gold. The Chiefs offensive line is injured against the best pass rush in the league. They have been putrid on the road this year (1-5) and better at home. Maybe, just maybe, this is finally the wake-up call they need. The Chiefs had success against C.J. Stroud last year, so hopefully that carries over. I don't see the Chiefs offense running away and hiding in this game, especially with the amount of man coverage the Texans play. Chiefs 19, Texans 17
Matt Conner
I'm all-in as a believer in these Chiefs. Recent history can only put me squarely in one corner until proven otherwise. That's not to say that the flaws aren't apparent, but the Chiefs have earned the benefit of every doubt with their run of success in the last several seasons. If they know they have to win against Houston, they'll do just that. Chiefs 24, Texans 21
Bransen Gibson
For weeks, it's felt like Kansas City has taken one step forward then two steps back. Opportunities to turn their season around have been squandered, but still, the Chiefs can do exactly that with a win against Houston. This time, it will finally happen. The Chiefs will finally ice a game with a crucial stop late to win. Chiefs 21, Texans 17
Lyle Graversen
The Texans defense can give any offensive line troubles, but if the Chiefs are missing 3 OL starters again in this one it could be a huge problem. In years past I would have given Kansas City the benefit of the doubt, but they just haven't pulled out this kind of ugly close game this year. Texans 24, Chiefs 23
Braden Holocek
The Chiefs have to win out in hopes of a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Texans are enjoying their best stretch of the season. Houston's defense is a terrifying matchup for Kansas City, as they deal with injuries on the offensive line. It has still been a solid enough offensive showing for the Chiefs recently, though, despite the losses. The defense was a major Achilles heel in Dallas. In a game that likely remains low scoring, the Chiefs may be aided by a Texans' offense that is still working through its own kinks and blocking questions. I keep looking crazy for sticking with Kansas City in these picks. But with a chance to gain a possible key tiebreaker in the AFC race, give me the Chiefs to grind out a slugfest on SNF in Kansas City. Chiefs 23, Texans 19
Scott Loring
It's just not in the cards this year for this Chiefs team. The injuries at both left and right tackle will severely cripple the team's hope of a last-gasp effort to get back into the playoff hunt. There is no worse matchup for the Chiefs' offense in this state. The presence of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter will cause K.C. to turn to quick passes and screens, and that's okay because lately, Patrick Mahomes' deep ball hasn't been connecting anyway. Like every other game, this one will come down to the wire. Yes, I'm predicting a tie. Chiefs 17, Texans 17
Charles Robinson
This is the first of five "It all comes down to this" games for the Chiefs to end the season. As badly as I want to believe that Kansas City can put a run together and make the playoffs, I am not there yet. However, a win over a surging Texans team on Sunday night would go a long way in pushing me to that level of belief. The things that have tripped the Chiefs up in 2025 have been mostly mental in nature, but on Sunday, they will be up against some physical limitations due to injuries along the offensive front. If this team has any life left, they will be as fired up as they have been all season, as will the crowd at Arrowhead Stadium under the lights in December. A steady dose of the run game and some clutch defense should do the trick for Kansas City in this one. Chiefs 30, Texans 24
Lucas Strozinsky
I'm out on this team. The only way this season could be worse is if they win a lot of games down the stretch yet barely miss the playoffs and get stuck with a worse draft pick. That being said, they should win this game, but the Texans defense could be a problem for KC. Chiefs 19, Texans 16